TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Primary Energy Supply – Future Pathways
Energy Supply and Demand Outlook: Navigating the Future
Forum 1 | Hall 9 - Technical Programme 1
12
October
13:30
15:00
UTC+3
An exploration of the latest trends, challenges, and opportunities in the energy sector, including the impact of geopolitical tensions, the transition to an energy sector with lower GHG emissions, and the economic factors shaping the market. The implications of these dynamics on achieving climate goals and ensuring a sustainable energy future and topics to gain a deeper understanding of the evolving energy landscape.
The global energy sector is at critical crossroads, the energy demand is anticipated to increase approximately by 20–25% between 2022 and 2050, driven largely by population growth and economic expansion. Simultaneously, the sector continues to face significant challenges regarding energy security, affordability, and sustainability.
Renewable energy sources, mainly solar and wind, are expected to supply nearly 60% of global electricity generation by 2050, enabled by increased investment and falling technology costs. Despite the accelerated growth of renewables, the need for reliable, dispatchable power remains critical to maintain grid stability and meet peak demand. The paper will discuss about how natural gas fulfills this role as a flexible and dependable energy source, offering lower lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to other fossil fuels and supporting integration of variable renewables.
The paper will discuss the possible transition to a lower-emission energy system that is supported by the expansion of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), the adoption of hydrogen for industrial and power use, and renewed interest in nuclear energy through Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
Geopolitical tensions, supply chain issues, and cost challenges continue to shape market dynamics. These present a complex range of challenges and opportunities for achieving climate goals and ensuring an affordable, sustainable, resilient energy future. A nuanced understanding of these trends is provided to the stakeholders as they navigate the evolving energy supply and demand outlook.
Renewable energy sources, mainly solar and wind, are expected to supply nearly 60% of global electricity generation by 2050, enabled by increased investment and falling technology costs. Despite the accelerated growth of renewables, the need for reliable, dispatchable power remains critical to maintain grid stability and meet peak demand. The paper will discuss about how natural gas fulfills this role as a flexible and dependable energy source, offering lower lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to other fossil fuels and supporting integration of variable renewables.
The paper will discuss the possible transition to a lower-emission energy system that is supported by the expansion of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), the adoption of hydrogen for industrial and power use, and renewed interest in nuclear energy through Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
Geopolitical tensions, supply chain issues, and cost challenges continue to shape market dynamics. These present a complex range of challenges and opportunities for achieving climate goals and ensuring an affordable, sustainable, resilient energy future. A nuanced understanding of these trends is provided to the stakeholders as they navigate the evolving energy supply and demand outlook.
As the global energy transition accelerates toward carbon neutrality, African oil-producing countries face a dual challenge: maintaining economic and energy sovereignty while adapting to the demands of a rapidly decarbonizing global energy order. This paradox raises critical questions about the development paths of resource-dependent states in Africa.
This paper presents a systemic analysis of the role of African oil in the context of shifting geopolitical, economic, and environmental dynamics. Drawing from the cases of Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Niger, and Ghana, and using key indicators such as investment flows, national oil company strategies, and fiscal regimes, it explores viable pathways to reconcile resource sovereignty, economic resilience, and a just energy transition.
Three strategic axes are proposed:
This paper also highlights opportunities to leverage Africa’s energy potential in the global energy transition - not only as a supplier of hydrocarbons, but also as a driver of solutions for energy access, green industrialization, and regional integration.
In conclusion, the paper advocates for a contextualized and sovereign African energy transition, one that acknowledges geopolitical realities, responsibly manages extractive resources, and builds institutional capacity. It calls for a renewed energy pact between Africa and the global community, based on justice, shared responsibility, and strategic diversification - ensuring that Africa is not just adapting to the new global energy order, but actively shaping it.
This paper presents a systemic analysis of the role of African oil in the context of shifting geopolitical, economic, and environmental dynamics. Drawing from the cases of Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Niger, and Ghana, and using key indicators such as investment flows, national oil company strategies, and fiscal regimes, it explores viable pathways to reconcile resource sovereignty, economic resilience, and a just energy transition.
Three strategic axes are proposed:
- Reorienting petroleum policies: This involves improving governance, increasing local content and control over resources, and negotiating more equitable contracts with international partners.
- Promoting economic diversification: By channeling oil revenues into industrialization, infrastructure, and clean energy development, countries can reduce vulnerability to oil price volatility and foster inclusive growth.
- Strengthening African energy diplomacy: Through enhanced South-South and pan-African cooperation, African states can collectively shape global energy governance, access climate finance, harmonize regulatory standards, and amplify their voice in international forums such as OPEC+, the UNFCCC (COP), and IRENA.
This paper also highlights opportunities to leverage Africa’s energy potential in the global energy transition - not only as a supplier of hydrocarbons, but also as a driver of solutions for energy access, green industrialization, and regional integration.
In conclusion, the paper advocates for a contextualized and sovereign African energy transition, one that acknowledges geopolitical realities, responsibly manages extractive resources, and builds institutional capacity. It calls for a renewed energy pact between Africa and the global community, based on justice, shared responsibility, and strategic diversification - ensuring that Africa is not just adapting to the new global energy order, but actively shaping it.
2024 represents the hottest year in recorded global history, with extreme weather events occurring with increasing frequency. Despite the escalating urgency of climate change mitigation, geopolitical shifts driven by great power competition, decoupling of energy supply chains, and deceleration of energy cooperation have profoundly impacted global energy development. Particularly significant are potential adjustments to U.S. energy policies, which may alter global renewable energy growth trajectories and severely disrupt the energy transition process. Within this context, Trump’s re-election as U.S. President under his “America First” doctrine has triggered a new round of global trade wars. The long-term strategic competition among major powers has become a core variable in the changing global order, potentially driving a profound restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and altering the trajectory of the world’s energy transition and development. In light of this, our research conducted targeted scenario analysis to evaluate the emerging trends and characteristics of global energy development under the assumption of persistent major power competition. Within a context of slowed global economic growth, constrained deployment of advanced industries and energy technologies, and impeded trade in critical energy transition resources, our findings suggest that national energy strategies are expected to prioritize energy security over the energy transition. This shift is projected to widen the gap between global energy transition progress and the goals stipulated in the Paris Agreement. In such a scenario, global primary energy demand growth would decline, the shift toward a cleaner energy mix would slow, and the electrification rate of final energy consumption would fall short of expectations. Countries would increasingly rely on their local resource endowments to advance the transition, delaying the timing of peak demand for coal, oil, and natural gas. A dual parallel-market structure would emerge in the trade of major energy commodities, and insufficient effective supply would lower the peak level of fossil fuel demand relative to current expectations. Technological bottlenecks and investment constraints would significantly reduce the growth potential of wind and solar power and delay the commercialization and large-scale deployment of advanced technologies such as hydrogen energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and energy storage. By 2060, the global average temperature rise could exceed 2 ℃, and humanity would face a more severe climate crisis.
There is no need to emphasize the importance of producing consistent projections related to energy on a global scale. In this context, many institutions share their forecasts with the public under the title of “international energy outlook.” Interestingly, however, many of the studies in the literature tend to focus on models based on certain climate targets (even if inconsistent), rather than interpreting global trends in a rational manner. Unfortunately, this leads to inconsistent expectations, especially as these transformation targets themselves are frequently missed.
On the other hand, the world needs much more rational analyses that consider climate goals while also grasping the social, economic, commercial, political, financial, and technological dynamics. Therefore, it is not very reasonable to shape future energy trends solely based on the dynamics constructed around carbon emission targets imposed or promoted by certain countries. Combating climate change and reducing carbon emissions — along with the associated plans, incentives, and investments — will of course impact global energy dynamics. However, instead of bending projections to fit climate goals, it would be a more reasonable approach to build consistent projections based on the world’s actual capabilities. This would also allow for more rational modeling of climate-related expectations.
In this context, this study will interpret the long-term global projections put forward by TESPAM, one of the prominent research centers in Turkey. Within the framework of these projections, global and regional energy transition trends, carbon emission targets, and trends in the oil industry will be analyzed in detail.
On the other hand, the world needs much more rational analyses that consider climate goals while also grasping the social, economic, commercial, political, financial, and technological dynamics. Therefore, it is not very reasonable to shape future energy trends solely based on the dynamics constructed around carbon emission targets imposed or promoted by certain countries. Combating climate change and reducing carbon emissions — along with the associated plans, incentives, and investments — will of course impact global energy dynamics. However, instead of bending projections to fit climate goals, it would be a more reasonable approach to build consistent projections based on the world’s actual capabilities. This would also allow for more rational modeling of climate-related expectations.
In this context, this study will interpret the long-term global projections put forward by TESPAM, one of the prominent research centers in Turkey. Within the framework of these projections, global and regional energy transition trends, carbon emission targets, and trends in the oil industry will be analyzed in detail.
Abdullah Al Jarboua
Chair
Senior Fellow, Energy Macro & Microeconomics
KAPSARC
Saudi Arabia
There is no need to emphasize the importance of producing consistent projections related to energy on a global scale. In this context, many institutions share their forecasts with the public under the title of “international energy outlook.” Interestingly, however, many of the studies in the literature tend to focus on models based on certain climate targets (even if inconsistent), rather than interpreting global trends in a rational manner. Unfortunately, this leads to inconsistent expectations, especially as these transformation targets themselves are frequently missed.
On the other hand, the world needs much more rational analyses that consider climate goals while also grasping the social, economic, commercial, political, financial, and technological dynamics. Therefore, it is not very reasonable to shape future energy trends solely based on the dynamics constructed around carbon emission targets imposed or promoted by certain countries. Combating climate change and reducing carbon emissions — along with the associated plans, incentives, and investments — will of course impact global energy dynamics. However, instead of bending projections to fit climate goals, it would be a more reasonable approach to build consistent projections based on the world’s actual capabilities. This would also allow for more rational modeling of climate-related expectations.
In this context, this study will interpret the long-term global projections put forward by TESPAM, one of the prominent research centers in Turkey. Within the framework of these projections, global and regional energy transition trends, carbon emission targets, and trends in the oil industry will be analyzed in detail.
On the other hand, the world needs much more rational analyses that consider climate goals while also grasping the social, economic, commercial, political, financial, and technological dynamics. Therefore, it is not very reasonable to shape future energy trends solely based on the dynamics constructed around carbon emission targets imposed or promoted by certain countries. Combating climate change and reducing carbon emissions — along with the associated plans, incentives, and investments — will of course impact global energy dynamics. However, instead of bending projections to fit climate goals, it would be a more reasonable approach to build consistent projections based on the world’s actual capabilities. This would also allow for more rational modeling of climate-related expectations.
In this context, this study will interpret the long-term global projections put forward by TESPAM, one of the prominent research centers in Turkey. Within the framework of these projections, global and regional energy transition trends, carbon emission targets, and trends in the oil industry will be analyzed in detail.
As the global energy transition accelerates toward carbon neutrality, African oil-producing countries face a dual challenge: maintaining economic and energy sovereignty while adapting to the demands of a rapidly decarbonizing global energy order. This paradox raises critical questions about the development paths of resource-dependent states in Africa.
This paper presents a systemic analysis of the role of African oil in the context of shifting geopolitical, economic, and environmental dynamics. Drawing from the cases of Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Niger, and Ghana, and using key indicators such as investment flows, national oil company strategies, and fiscal regimes, it explores viable pathways to reconcile resource sovereignty, economic resilience, and a just energy transition.
Three strategic axes are proposed:
This paper also highlights opportunities to leverage Africa’s energy potential in the global energy transition - not only as a supplier of hydrocarbons, but also as a driver of solutions for energy access, green industrialization, and regional integration.
In conclusion, the paper advocates for a contextualized and sovereign African energy transition, one that acknowledges geopolitical realities, responsibly manages extractive resources, and builds institutional capacity. It calls for a renewed energy pact between Africa and the global community, based on justice, shared responsibility, and strategic diversification - ensuring that Africa is not just adapting to the new global energy order, but actively shaping it.
This paper presents a systemic analysis of the role of African oil in the context of shifting geopolitical, economic, and environmental dynamics. Drawing from the cases of Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Niger, and Ghana, and using key indicators such as investment flows, national oil company strategies, and fiscal regimes, it explores viable pathways to reconcile resource sovereignty, economic resilience, and a just energy transition.
Three strategic axes are proposed:
- Reorienting petroleum policies: This involves improving governance, increasing local content and control over resources, and negotiating more equitable contracts with international partners.
- Promoting economic diversification: By channeling oil revenues into industrialization, infrastructure, and clean energy development, countries can reduce vulnerability to oil price volatility and foster inclusive growth.
- Strengthening African energy diplomacy: Through enhanced South-South and pan-African cooperation, African states can collectively shape global energy governance, access climate finance, harmonize regulatory standards, and amplify their voice in international forums such as OPEC+, the UNFCCC (COP), and IRENA.
This paper also highlights opportunities to leverage Africa’s energy potential in the global energy transition - not only as a supplier of hydrocarbons, but also as a driver of solutions for energy access, green industrialization, and regional integration.
In conclusion, the paper advocates for a contextualized and sovereign African energy transition, one that acknowledges geopolitical realities, responsibly manages extractive resources, and builds institutional capacity. It calls for a renewed energy pact between Africa and the global community, based on justice, shared responsibility, and strategic diversification - ensuring that Africa is not just adapting to the new global energy order, but actively shaping it.
The global energy sector is at critical crossroads, the energy demand is anticipated to increase approximately by 20–25% between 2022 and 2050, driven largely by population growth and economic expansion. Simultaneously, the sector continues to face significant challenges regarding energy security, affordability, and sustainability.
Renewable energy sources, mainly solar and wind, are expected to supply nearly 60% of global electricity generation by 2050, enabled by increased investment and falling technology costs. Despite the accelerated growth of renewables, the need for reliable, dispatchable power remains critical to maintain grid stability and meet peak demand. The paper will discuss about how natural gas fulfills this role as a flexible and dependable energy source, offering lower lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to other fossil fuels and supporting integration of variable renewables.
The paper will discuss the possible transition to a lower-emission energy system that is supported by the expansion of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), the adoption of hydrogen for industrial and power use, and renewed interest in nuclear energy through Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
Geopolitical tensions, supply chain issues, and cost challenges continue to shape market dynamics. These present a complex range of challenges and opportunities for achieving climate goals and ensuring an affordable, sustainable, resilient energy future. A nuanced understanding of these trends is provided to the stakeholders as they navigate the evolving energy supply and demand outlook.
Renewable energy sources, mainly solar and wind, are expected to supply nearly 60% of global electricity generation by 2050, enabled by increased investment and falling technology costs. Despite the accelerated growth of renewables, the need for reliable, dispatchable power remains critical to maintain grid stability and meet peak demand. The paper will discuss about how natural gas fulfills this role as a flexible and dependable energy source, offering lower lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to other fossil fuels and supporting integration of variable renewables.
The paper will discuss the possible transition to a lower-emission energy system that is supported by the expansion of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), the adoption of hydrogen for industrial and power use, and renewed interest in nuclear energy through Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
Geopolitical tensions, supply chain issues, and cost challenges continue to shape market dynamics. These present a complex range of challenges and opportunities for achieving climate goals and ensuring an affordable, sustainable, resilient energy future. A nuanced understanding of these trends is provided to the stakeholders as they navigate the evolving energy supply and demand outlook.
2024 represents the hottest year in recorded global history, with extreme weather events occurring with increasing frequency. Despite the escalating urgency of climate change mitigation, geopolitical shifts driven by great power competition, decoupling of energy supply chains, and deceleration of energy cooperation have profoundly impacted global energy development. Particularly significant are potential adjustments to U.S. energy policies, which may alter global renewable energy growth trajectories and severely disrupt the energy transition process. Within this context, Trump’s re-election as U.S. President under his “America First” doctrine has triggered a new round of global trade wars. The long-term strategic competition among major powers has become a core variable in the changing global order, potentially driving a profound restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and altering the trajectory of the world’s energy transition and development. In light of this, our research conducted targeted scenario analysis to evaluate the emerging trends and characteristics of global energy development under the assumption of persistent major power competition. Within a context of slowed global economic growth, constrained deployment of advanced industries and energy technologies, and impeded trade in critical energy transition resources, our findings suggest that national energy strategies are expected to prioritize energy security over the energy transition. This shift is projected to widen the gap between global energy transition progress and the goals stipulated in the Paris Agreement. In such a scenario, global primary energy demand growth would decline, the shift toward a cleaner energy mix would slow, and the electrification rate of final energy consumption would fall short of expectations. Countries would increasingly rely on their local resource endowments to advance the transition, delaying the timing of peak demand for coal, oil, and natural gas. A dual parallel-market structure would emerge in the trade of major energy commodities, and insufficient effective supply would lower the peak level of fossil fuel demand relative to current expectations. Technological bottlenecks and investment constraints would significantly reduce the growth potential of wind and solar power and delay the commercialization and large-scale deployment of advanced technologies such as hydrogen energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and energy storage. By 2060, the global average temperature rise could exceed 2 ℃, and humanity would face a more severe climate crisis.
