TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Primary Energy Supply – Future Pathways
Natural Gas as a Transition Fuel
Forum 4 | Digital Poster Plaza 1
29
April
14:00
16:00
UTC+3
Natural gas holds a pivotal role in the transition to a lower-carbon energy landscape due to its lower GHG emissions, when compared with other fossil fuels. It is a reliable, abundant and adaptable energy resource, and can also support the growth in electricity production from wind and solar by bolstering grid stability and energy security. Moreover, technological advancements and infrastructure development, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline networks, enhance the accessibility and efficiency of natural gas utilization. This session will delve into the potential of natural gas in facilitating a sustainable energy future. The exploration of opportunities to expand natural gas applications for technological purposes, including the production of renewable energy, will also be a focal point of discussion.
The storage and transportation of liquefied methane, particularly in the form of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), has become an integral part of the global energy infrastructure. This paper examines the technological advancements in the storage, transportation, and environmental management of liquefied methane. With growing concerns about climate change and the need for low-carbon energy alternatives, LNG stands as a viable solution, offering a cleaner fuel compared to conventional fossil fuels. The paper discusses key aspects such as the liquefaction process, which significantly reduces methane's volume, thereby facilitating its long-distance transportation at a lower cost. Moreover, it highlights the environmental implications of LNG, focusing on greenhouse gas emissions associated with its lifecycle—from production and liquefaction to transportation and consumption. Additionally, the paper explores the safety concerns related to LNG storage, emphasizing the risks of boil-off gas (BOG) during transportation and the engineering solutions implemented to manage these challenges. It concludes with a forward-looking perspective on the future of LNG, considering the increasing demand for this clean energy source and the ongoing innovations aimed at enhancing its efficiency and safety. The development of more efficient storage systems and transportation technologies is crucial for ensuring the sustainability of LNG as a key energy carrier in the coming decades.
The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand is expected to double or even triple in the coming decades. The carbon intensity (CI) of the LNG value chain is a critical metric for assessing the climate impact of this growth. This study evaluates the CI across 90% of the global LNG market, covering the top ten exporters and thirty-seven importers across Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, and Africa. Exporting countries such as Qatar, Australia, and the U.S. account for 74% of global exports, while Japan, China, and Korea lead imports, representing over 50% of the market. The results show that the well-to-liquefaction CI ranges from 13.7 to 17.0 gCO2e/MJ with an average of 15.2 gCO2e/MJ, whereas the well-to-regasification CI spans from 15.3 to 18.6 gCO2e/MJ with an average of 16.9 gCO2e/MJ. These estimates can be translated into 313 million tons of CO2 per year from the global LNG supply chain. Methane emissions significantly contribute to the overall CI, accounting for 43% of exporter emissions and 39% for importers. Super emitters, idenfitied via satellite monitoring, contribute 21% and 19% of the total CI of exporters and importers, respectively. Additionally, CO2 venting accounts for 22% and 19% of the total CI in Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively, highlighting regional variances. The inclusion of 15 global carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities offers insights into potential emissions mitigation strategies in the LNG sector. This comprehensive assessment underscores the need for targeted strategies to reduce CI across the global LNG value chain.
Humanity is undergoing its fourth major energy transition, following the biomass, coal, and hydrocarbon eras. As the lowest-carbon fossil fuel, natural gas is poised to play a pivotal role in this transformation. While conventional research often labels it a "transition fuel," deeper analysis reveals that no existing energy source can fully resolve the Energy Trilemma—balancing economic viability, environmental sustainability, and supply security. When assessed holistically within global energy systems, natural gas transcends its temporary bridging role, emerging as a system stabilizer with enduring value.
Core Attributes of Natural Gas as a Balancing Energy Source：
Strategic Integration Pathways：
Moving beyond the "transition fuel" paradigm, this study proposes four actionable strategies:
Redefining Natural Gas as a Flexibility Multiplier:
Reconceptualized as a flexibility multiplier, natural gas demonstrates irreplaceable value in:
Core Attributes of Natural Gas as a Balancing Energy Source：
- Environmental Advantage: Generates 50-60% less CO₂ emissions than coal in power generation, with near-zero particulate emissions.
- Grid Stability: Delivers baseload power with 90-95% reliability, significantly outperforming intermittent renewables like solar (15-25% capacity utilization).
- Economic Scalability: The shale gas revolution and LNG technological breakthroughs have reduced global supply costs by 40-65% since 2010.
Strategic Integration Pathways：
Moving beyond the "transition fuel" paradigm, this study proposes four actionable strategies:
- Coal Phase-Out Acceleration: Systematically replace coal in developing economies, leveraging gas-to-power projects to cut emissions while ensuring energy access.
- Renewable Energy Synergy: Provide peak-shaving support for variable renewable power, enhancing grid stability through hybrid gas-renewable systems.
- Hydrogen Industry Incubation: Capitalize on infrastructure synergies between natural gas and hydrogen (e.g., shared pipelines, storage facilities) to accelerate green hydrogen scaling.
- Carbon Sequestration Leverage: Repurpose depleted gas reservoirs and existing infrastructure for cost-effective carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Redefining Natural Gas as a Flexibility Multiplier:
Reconceptualized as a flexibility multiplier, natural gas demonstrates irreplaceable value in:
- Accelerating Coal Retirements: Enabling emerging economies to bypass coal-dependent development pathways.
- Grid Inertia Provision: Supplying rotational inertia for renewable-heavy grids, preventing frequency collapses during solar/wind fluctuations.
- Hard-to-Abate Sector Decarbonization: Serving as a transitional feedstock for steel and cement industries, where direct electrification remains technologically constrained.
- This systemic reconfiguration positions natural gas not merely as a compromise but as a linchpin for resolving the Energy Trilemma. By integrating its transitional strengths with long-term decarbonization imperatives, natural gas can catalyze the structural shifts needed to achieve carbon neutrality goals.
Inter-fuel substitution, driven by factors such as cost, resource availability, and environmental considerations, has emerged as a critical area of research. This topic is particularly relevant in the context of the global energy transition, as shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources plays a crucial role in achieving decarbonization goals and fostering sustainable economic growth. Fuel substitution leverages the zero-emission potential of renewables, offering a pathway to balance environmental and economic objectives. The industrial sector is highly energy-intensive and heavily dependent on fossil fuels, accounting for around 25-30% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions (IEA), which can play a significant role in this transition. For oil-exporting nations, inter-fuel substitution can be a strategic tool to enhance energy security and economic diversification and to achieve CO2 emissions reduction targets. Reducing domestic oil consumption and favoring alternative fuels (e.g., natural gas, solar energy) can free up more crude oil for exports, generating revenue while advancing domestic decarbonization efforts. Substitution between fuels is consistent with the broader goals of economic diversification of oil-exporting countries. By investing in renewable energy and alternative fuels, oil-exporting countries can support new industries (e.g., green hydrogen production) and reduce their dependence on oil exports, which is crucial for long-term economic stability. In this context, the industrial sector of Saudi Arabia can play a pivotal role in achieving economic diversification objectives and fostering sustainable economic growth. This study examines the feasibility of fuel substitution in the Saudi Arabian industrial sector. It focuses, in particular, on estimating the own price and cross-price elasticities of substitution. Reliable estimates of these elasticities are essential for assessing the impact of climate change policies on fuel choice.
In this paper, we utilize the trans-log cost function, imposing local curvature conditions to examine the potential for inter-fuel substitution among natural gas, electricity, fuel oil, and diesel oil within Saudi Arabia's industrial sector. These curvature conditions ensure theoretical consistency with neoclassical microeconomic principles, particularly in maintaining curvature, positivity, and monotonicity, thereby reflecting realistic substitution behavior. The results reveal that own-price elasticities of fuel oil, natural gas, diesel, and electricity are negative, as expected by economic theory. The absolute values of the own-price elasticities are less than 1 for all energy products, indicating inelastic demand for all fuels. The substitution elasticities among various energy inputs are positive and exceed one, except between natural gas and diesel and between electricity and diesel. We find a moderate substitutability between natural gas and diesel and between electricity and diesel.
Notably, the strong substitutability between oil products and natural gas and between oil products and electricity underscores the sector's capacity for adopting cleaner energy. The strong substitutability of cleaner energy products and oil products presents dual advantages: enhancing the country’s oil export potential and reducing environmental impacts. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to balance economic growth, energy security, and environmental sustainability. The results also align with global evidence on inter-fuel substitutability, emphasizing the broader applicability of these conclusions in transitioning to low-carbon energy systems.
In this paper, we utilize the trans-log cost function, imposing local curvature conditions to examine the potential for inter-fuel substitution among natural gas, electricity, fuel oil, and diesel oil within Saudi Arabia's industrial sector. These curvature conditions ensure theoretical consistency with neoclassical microeconomic principles, particularly in maintaining curvature, positivity, and monotonicity, thereby reflecting realistic substitution behavior. The results reveal that own-price elasticities of fuel oil, natural gas, diesel, and electricity are negative, as expected by economic theory. The absolute values of the own-price elasticities are less than 1 for all energy products, indicating inelastic demand for all fuels. The substitution elasticities among various energy inputs are positive and exceed one, except between natural gas and diesel and between electricity and diesel. We find a moderate substitutability between natural gas and diesel and between electricity and diesel.
Notably, the strong substitutability between oil products and natural gas and between oil products and electricity underscores the sector's capacity for adopting cleaner energy. The strong substitutability of cleaner energy products and oil products presents dual advantages: enhancing the country’s oil export potential and reducing environmental impacts. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to balance economic growth, energy security, and environmental sustainability. The results also align with global evidence on inter-fuel substitutability, emphasizing the broader applicability of these conclusions in transitioning to low-carbon energy systems.
Under the strategic goal of promoting low-carbon transition of the energy system, China’s oil and gas industry is striving to explore the path for sustainable development. Renewable energy units are actively deployed around the oil and gas fields aiming for reducing high energy costs and excessive carbon emissions during the production of oil and gas. However, the volatility and uncertainty features of wind and solar output conflict with the continuous power demand in oil and gas industry, posing severe challenges on production stability and energy supply security. In addition, newly developed oil and gas fields are often within incomplete surrounding infrastructure, with limited or no access to the grid. To address the aforementioned challenges, a solar-wind-natural gas integrated energy system provides a sustainable solution, enhancing system reliability and reducing grid reliance.
This study focused on addressing the practical issues during the implementation of the solar-wind-natural gas integrated system, via a case study of an oil and gas field in Northern China. An economically optimal system configuration was proposed to ensure a reliable energy supply. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the system to uncertainties of resources availability and policy incentives was investigated, providing more progressive insights. Results revealed that by applying the proposed integrated energy system, the carbon emissions and system cost of energy were reduced by 40% and 50%, respectively, while achieving a 75% renewable energy penetration rate. The proposed solution is a valuable paradigm of deep integration of natural gas and renewable energy in oil and gas industry, validating the comprehensive benefits achieved in economy, security and low-carbon dimensions. It highlights the irreplaceable role of natural gas as a transition fuel during the low-carbon transformation trend.
Co-author/s:
Jinze Li, Engineer, CNPC.
This study focused on addressing the practical issues during the implementation of the solar-wind-natural gas integrated system, via a case study of an oil and gas field in Northern China. An economically optimal system configuration was proposed to ensure a reliable energy supply. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the system to uncertainties of resources availability and policy incentives was investigated, providing more progressive insights. Results revealed that by applying the proposed integrated energy system, the carbon emissions and system cost of energy were reduced by 40% and 50%, respectively, while achieving a 75% renewable energy penetration rate. The proposed solution is a valuable paradigm of deep integration of natural gas and renewable energy in oil and gas industry, validating the comprehensive benefits achieved in economy, security and low-carbon dimensions. It highlights the irreplaceable role of natural gas as a transition fuel during the low-carbon transformation trend.
Co-author/s:
Jinze Li, Engineer, CNPC.
Iran possesses the world’s second-largest proven natural gas reserves estimated at over 34 trillion cubic meters positioning it as a key player in the future of global energy supply. Despite this vast resource base, only around 70% of Iran’s technically recoverable reserves are currently under active development, largely due to a combination of technological, infrastructural, economic, and geopolitical challenges. These include aging processing facilities, limited access to advanced gas recovery technologies, sanctions affecting foreign investment and equipment imports, and constraints in export capacity such as LNG infrastructure.
This paper offers a comprehensive assessment of Iran’s major gas fields and analyzes the current production trends and bottlenecks. Domestic consumption, which accounts for over 75% of total production, is dominated by electricity generation, petrochemical feedstock, and reinjection for oil recovery. As Iran faces increasing internal demand and environmental pressures, the strategic role of natural gas as a transition fuel is critical for achieving national sustainability and emission-reduction goals.
The study models three gas development and utilization scenarios business-as-usual, technology-accelerated, and export-oriented and evaluates their respective impacts on production capacity, emission profiles, and economic returns. Under a moderate modernization strategy, gas recovery efficiency could improve by 15–25%, while emissions from flaring and venting could be reduced by up to 40%. The paper concludes with policy and investment recommendations, emphasizing the need for digital technologies, public-private partnerships, regional energy cooperation, and environmentally sustainable field development strategies to align Iran’s gas sector with future energy transition pathways.
Co-author/s:
Saeed Abassi, Assistant Professor of Research Institute of Petroleum Industry, RIPI (Research Institute of Petroleum Industry).
This paper offers a comprehensive assessment of Iran’s major gas fields and analyzes the current production trends and bottlenecks. Domestic consumption, which accounts for over 75% of total production, is dominated by electricity generation, petrochemical feedstock, and reinjection for oil recovery. As Iran faces increasing internal demand and environmental pressures, the strategic role of natural gas as a transition fuel is critical for achieving national sustainability and emission-reduction goals.
The study models three gas development and utilization scenarios business-as-usual, technology-accelerated, and export-oriented and evaluates their respective impacts on production capacity, emission profiles, and economic returns. Under a moderate modernization strategy, gas recovery efficiency could improve by 15–25%, while emissions from flaring and venting could be reduced by up to 40%. The paper concludes with policy and investment recommendations, emphasizing the need for digital technologies, public-private partnerships, regional energy cooperation, and environmentally sustainable field development strategies to align Iran’s gas sector with future energy transition pathways.
Co-author/s:
Saeed Abassi, Assistant Professor of Research Institute of Petroleum Industry, RIPI (Research Institute of Petroleum Industry).
Transparent quantification of carbon intensity at the level of individual supply routes is essential for guiding investment, operational choices, and policy measures in the global effort to decarbonize energy systems. However, no study to date provides a comprehensive, route-level analysis of the end-to-end carbon intensity of liquefied natural gas. In this work, we assess every major liquefaction facility (n = 45), shipping corridor (n = 7 920), and regasification terminal (n = 190) worldwide, spanning 20 exporting and 45 importing nations. Route distances ranged from 36 km to 116 774 km (median 4 217 km), with cargo volumes between 1 080 t and 2 144 990 t (median 66 476 t). We calculate the carbon intensity of liquefaction (L: 0.06–11.76 g CO₂e/MJ), shipping (S: 0.8–38.99 g CO₂e/MJ), and regasification (R: 0.006–0.343 g CO₂e/MJ), yielding combined route-level-LSR intensities of 0.29–41.18 g CO₂e/MJ (median 3.71 g CO₂e/MJ). Our findings reveal pronounced variability driven by distance, plant efficiency, vessel type, plant and terminal operations. This granular transparency enables stakeholders to identify high-impact opportunities for emissions reduction, optimise route selection, and develop targeted decarbonization strategies for the global liquefied natural gas value chain.
Natural gas (NG) is increasingly vital as a cleaner energy source due to its lower carbon emissions compared to other fossil fuels. Liquefaction facilitates efficient long-distance transportation. While numerous studies address NG liquefaction's technical aspects, holistic research remains limited. This study presents a comprehensive 4E (energy, exergy, exergoeconomic, and exergoenvironmental) analysis of five conventional NG liquefaction processes (including SMR-Linde, SMR-APCI, C3MR-Linde, DMR-APCI, and MFC-Linde), employing production volume-independent parameters for comparison. Simulations show that the MFC-Linde cycle as the most efficient regarding specific energy consumption (0.2563 ), coefficient of performance (3.184), and exergy efficiency (52.32%). It also demonstrates the lowest unit exergy cost ( ) and environmental impact ( ). Multi-objective optimization, considering both exergetic-economic and exergetic-environmental criteria, using neural networks and genetic algorithms in MATLAB identifies Pareto-optimal conditions for all processes. For the MFC-Linde, as the most efficient process, optimal operating conditions in the exergetic-economic trade off scenario are: and ; at , , and . Finally, a feasibility study for large-scale LNG production in Iran shows promising results, with a return on investment of 32.24 and a payback period of 2.34 years, indicating the project's potential success in regions with abundant NG reserves.
Shahab Gerami
Vice Chair
Senior Researcher at RIPI
RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF PETROLEUM INDUSTRY
Natural gas (NG) is increasingly vital as a cleaner energy source due to its lower carbon emissions compared to other fossil fuels. Liquefaction facilitates efficient long-distance transportation. While numerous studies address NG liquefaction's technical aspects, holistic research remains limited. This study presents a comprehensive 4E (energy, exergy, exergoeconomic, and exergoenvironmental) analysis of five conventional NG liquefaction processes (including SMR-Linde, SMR-APCI, C3MR-Linde, DMR-APCI, and MFC-Linde), employing production volume-independent parameters for comparison. Simulations show that the MFC-Linde cycle as the most efficient regarding specific energy consumption (0.2563 ), coefficient of performance (3.184), and exergy efficiency (52.32%). It also demonstrates the lowest unit exergy cost ( ) and environmental impact ( ). Multi-objective optimization, considering both exergetic-economic and exergetic-environmental criteria, using neural networks and genetic algorithms in MATLAB identifies Pareto-optimal conditions for all processes. For the MFC-Linde, as the most efficient process, optimal operating conditions in the exergetic-economic trade off scenario are: and ; at , , and . Finally, a feasibility study for large-scale LNG production in Iran shows promising results, with a return on investment of 32.24 and a payback period of 2.34 years, indicating the project's potential success in regions with abundant NG reserves.
Under the strategic goal of promoting low-carbon transition of the energy system, China’s oil and gas industry is striving to explore the path for sustainable development. Renewable energy units are actively deployed around the oil and gas fields aiming for reducing high energy costs and excessive carbon emissions during the production of oil and gas. However, the volatility and uncertainty features of wind and solar output conflict with the continuous power demand in oil and gas industry, posing severe challenges on production stability and energy supply security. In addition, newly developed oil and gas fields are often within incomplete surrounding infrastructure, with limited or no access to the grid. To address the aforementioned challenges, a solar-wind-natural gas integrated energy system provides a sustainable solution, enhancing system reliability and reducing grid reliance.
This study focused on addressing the practical issues during the implementation of the solar-wind-natural gas integrated system, via a case study of an oil and gas field in Northern China. An economically optimal system configuration was proposed to ensure a reliable energy supply. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the system to uncertainties of resources availability and policy incentives was investigated, providing more progressive insights. Results revealed that by applying the proposed integrated energy system, the carbon emissions and system cost of energy were reduced by 40% and 50%, respectively, while achieving a 75% renewable energy penetration rate. The proposed solution is a valuable paradigm of deep integration of natural gas and renewable energy in oil and gas industry, validating the comprehensive benefits achieved in economy, security and low-carbon dimensions. It highlights the irreplaceable role of natural gas as a transition fuel during the low-carbon transformation trend.
Co-author/s:
Jinze Li, Engineer, CNPC.
This study focused on addressing the practical issues during the implementation of the solar-wind-natural gas integrated system, via a case study of an oil and gas field in Northern China. An economically optimal system configuration was proposed to ensure a reliable energy supply. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the system to uncertainties of resources availability and policy incentives was investigated, providing more progressive insights. Results revealed that by applying the proposed integrated energy system, the carbon emissions and system cost of energy were reduced by 40% and 50%, respectively, while achieving a 75% renewable energy penetration rate. The proposed solution is a valuable paradigm of deep integration of natural gas and renewable energy in oil and gas industry, validating the comprehensive benefits achieved in economy, security and low-carbon dimensions. It highlights the irreplaceable role of natural gas as a transition fuel during the low-carbon transformation trend.
Co-author/s:
Jinze Li, Engineer, CNPC.
Muhammad Javid
Speaker
Senior Fellow
King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Inter-fuel substitution, driven by factors such as cost, resource availability, and environmental considerations, has emerged as a critical area of research. This topic is particularly relevant in the context of the global energy transition, as shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources plays a crucial role in achieving decarbonization goals and fostering sustainable economic growth. Fuel substitution leverages the zero-emission potential of renewables, offering a pathway to balance environmental and economic objectives. The industrial sector is highly energy-intensive and heavily dependent on fossil fuels, accounting for around 25-30% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions (IEA), which can play a significant role in this transition. For oil-exporting nations, inter-fuel substitution can be a strategic tool to enhance energy security and economic diversification and to achieve CO2 emissions reduction targets. Reducing domestic oil consumption and favoring alternative fuels (e.g., natural gas, solar energy) can free up more crude oil for exports, generating revenue while advancing domestic decarbonization efforts. Substitution between fuels is consistent with the broader goals of economic diversification of oil-exporting countries. By investing in renewable energy and alternative fuels, oil-exporting countries can support new industries (e.g., green hydrogen production) and reduce their dependence on oil exports, which is crucial for long-term economic stability. In this context, the industrial sector of Saudi Arabia can play a pivotal role in achieving economic diversification objectives and fostering sustainable economic growth. This study examines the feasibility of fuel substitution in the Saudi Arabian industrial sector. It focuses, in particular, on estimating the own price and cross-price elasticities of substitution. Reliable estimates of these elasticities are essential for assessing the impact of climate change policies on fuel choice.
In this paper, we utilize the trans-log cost function, imposing local curvature conditions to examine the potential for inter-fuel substitution among natural gas, electricity, fuel oil, and diesel oil within Saudi Arabia's industrial sector. These curvature conditions ensure theoretical consistency with neoclassical microeconomic principles, particularly in maintaining curvature, positivity, and monotonicity, thereby reflecting realistic substitution behavior. The results reveal that own-price elasticities of fuel oil, natural gas, diesel, and electricity are negative, as expected by economic theory. The absolute values of the own-price elasticities are less than 1 for all energy products, indicating inelastic demand for all fuels. The substitution elasticities among various energy inputs are positive and exceed one, except between natural gas and diesel and between electricity and diesel. We find a moderate substitutability between natural gas and diesel and between electricity and diesel.
Notably, the strong substitutability between oil products and natural gas and between oil products and electricity underscores the sector's capacity for adopting cleaner energy. The strong substitutability of cleaner energy products and oil products presents dual advantages: enhancing the country’s oil export potential and reducing environmental impacts. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to balance economic growth, energy security, and environmental sustainability. The results also align with global evidence on inter-fuel substitutability, emphasizing the broader applicability of these conclusions in transitioning to low-carbon energy systems.
In this paper, we utilize the trans-log cost function, imposing local curvature conditions to examine the potential for inter-fuel substitution among natural gas, electricity, fuel oil, and diesel oil within Saudi Arabia's industrial sector. These curvature conditions ensure theoretical consistency with neoclassical microeconomic principles, particularly in maintaining curvature, positivity, and monotonicity, thereby reflecting realistic substitution behavior. The results reveal that own-price elasticities of fuel oil, natural gas, diesel, and electricity are negative, as expected by economic theory. The absolute values of the own-price elasticities are less than 1 for all energy products, indicating inelastic demand for all fuels. The substitution elasticities among various energy inputs are positive and exceed one, except between natural gas and diesel and between electricity and diesel. We find a moderate substitutability between natural gas and diesel and between electricity and diesel.
Notably, the strong substitutability between oil products and natural gas and between oil products and electricity underscores the sector's capacity for adopting cleaner energy. The strong substitutability of cleaner energy products and oil products presents dual advantages: enhancing the country’s oil export potential and reducing environmental impacts. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to balance economic growth, energy security, and environmental sustainability. The results also align with global evidence on inter-fuel substitutability, emphasizing the broader applicability of these conclusions in transitioning to low-carbon energy systems.
Zhang Jianping
Speaker
Deputy Director
Institute for Natural Gas Economics, PetroChina Southwest Operations
Humanity is undergoing its fourth major energy transition, following the biomass, coal, and hydrocarbon eras. As the lowest-carbon fossil fuel, natural gas is poised to play a pivotal role in this transformation. While conventional research often labels it a "transition fuel," deeper analysis reveals that no existing energy source can fully resolve the Energy Trilemma—balancing economic viability, environmental sustainability, and supply security. When assessed holistically within global energy systems, natural gas transcends its temporary bridging role, emerging as a system stabilizer with enduring value.
Core Attributes of Natural Gas as a Balancing Energy Source：
Strategic Integration Pathways：
Moving beyond the "transition fuel" paradigm, this study proposes four actionable strategies:
Redefining Natural Gas as a Flexibility Multiplier:
Reconceptualized as a flexibility multiplier, natural gas demonstrates irreplaceable value in:
Core Attributes of Natural Gas as a Balancing Energy Source：
- Environmental Advantage: Generates 50-60% less CO₂ emissions than coal in power generation, with near-zero particulate emissions.
- Grid Stability: Delivers baseload power with 90-95% reliability, significantly outperforming intermittent renewables like solar (15-25% capacity utilization).
- Economic Scalability: The shale gas revolution and LNG technological breakthroughs have reduced global supply costs by 40-65% since 2010.
Strategic Integration Pathways：
Moving beyond the "transition fuel" paradigm, this study proposes four actionable strategies:
- Coal Phase-Out Acceleration: Systematically replace coal in developing economies, leveraging gas-to-power projects to cut emissions while ensuring energy access.
- Renewable Energy Synergy: Provide peak-shaving support for variable renewable power, enhancing grid stability through hybrid gas-renewable systems.
- Hydrogen Industry Incubation: Capitalize on infrastructure synergies between natural gas and hydrogen (e.g., shared pipelines, storage facilities) to accelerate green hydrogen scaling.
- Carbon Sequestration Leverage: Repurpose depleted gas reservoirs and existing infrastructure for cost-effective carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Redefining Natural Gas as a Flexibility Multiplier:
Reconceptualized as a flexibility multiplier, natural gas demonstrates irreplaceable value in:
- Accelerating Coal Retirements: Enabling emerging economies to bypass coal-dependent development pathways.
- Grid Inertia Provision: Supplying rotational inertia for renewable-heavy grids, preventing frequency collapses during solar/wind fluctuations.
- Hard-to-Abate Sector Decarbonization: Serving as a transitional feedstock for steel and cement industries, where direct electrification remains technologically constrained.
- This systemic reconfiguration positions natural gas not merely as a compromise but as a linchpin for resolving the Energy Trilemma. By integrating its transitional strengths with long-term decarbonization imperatives, natural gas can catalyze the structural shifts needed to achieve carbon neutrality goals.
The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand is expected to double or even triple in the coming decades. The carbon intensity (CI) of the LNG value chain is a critical metric for assessing the climate impact of this growth. This study evaluates the CI across 90% of the global LNG market, covering the top ten exporters and thirty-seven importers across Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, and Africa. Exporting countries such as Qatar, Australia, and the U.S. account for 74% of global exports, while Japan, China, and Korea lead imports, representing over 50% of the market. The results show that the well-to-liquefaction CI ranges from 13.7 to 17.0 gCO2e/MJ with an average of 15.2 gCO2e/MJ, whereas the well-to-regasification CI spans from 15.3 to 18.6 gCO2e/MJ with an average of 16.9 gCO2e/MJ. These estimates can be translated into 313 million tons of CO2 per year from the global LNG supply chain. Methane emissions significantly contribute to the overall CI, accounting for 43% of exporter emissions and 39% for importers. Super emitters, idenfitied via satellite monitoring, contribute 21% and 19% of the total CI of exporters and importers, respectively. Additionally, CO2 venting accounts for 22% and 19% of the total CI in Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively, highlighting regional variances. The inclusion of 15 global carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities offers insights into potential emissions mitigation strategies in the LNG sector. This comprehensive assessment underscores the need for targeted strategies to reduce CI across the global LNG value chain.
Yasin Khalili
Speaker
PhD Candidate of Petroleum Engineering
Department of Petroleum Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
Iran possesses the world’s second-largest proven natural gas reserves estimated at over 34 trillion cubic meters positioning it as a key player in the future of global energy supply. Despite this vast resource base, only around 70% of Iran’s technically recoverable reserves are currently under active development, largely due to a combination of technological, infrastructural, economic, and geopolitical challenges. These include aging processing facilities, limited access to advanced gas recovery technologies, sanctions affecting foreign investment and equipment imports, and constraints in export capacity such as LNG infrastructure.
This paper offers a comprehensive assessment of Iran’s major gas fields and analyzes the current production trends and bottlenecks. Domestic consumption, which accounts for over 75% of total production, is dominated by electricity generation, petrochemical feedstock, and reinjection for oil recovery. As Iran faces increasing internal demand and environmental pressures, the strategic role of natural gas as a transition fuel is critical for achieving national sustainability and emission-reduction goals.
The study models three gas development and utilization scenarios business-as-usual, technology-accelerated, and export-oriented and evaluates their respective impacts on production capacity, emission profiles, and economic returns. Under a moderate modernization strategy, gas recovery efficiency could improve by 15–25%, while emissions from flaring and venting could be reduced by up to 40%. The paper concludes with policy and investment recommendations, emphasizing the need for digital technologies, public-private partnerships, regional energy cooperation, and environmentally sustainable field development strategies to align Iran’s gas sector with future energy transition pathways.
Co-author/s:
Saeed Abassi, Assistant Professor of Research Institute of Petroleum Industry, RIPI (Research Institute of Petroleum Industry).
This paper offers a comprehensive assessment of Iran’s major gas fields and analyzes the current production trends and bottlenecks. Domestic consumption, which accounts for over 75% of total production, is dominated by electricity generation, petrochemical feedstock, and reinjection for oil recovery. As Iran faces increasing internal demand and environmental pressures, the strategic role of natural gas as a transition fuel is critical for achieving national sustainability and emission-reduction goals.
The study models three gas development and utilization scenarios business-as-usual, technology-accelerated, and export-oriented and evaluates their respective impacts on production capacity, emission profiles, and economic returns. Under a moderate modernization strategy, gas recovery efficiency could improve by 15–25%, while emissions from flaring and venting could be reduced by up to 40%. The paper concludes with policy and investment recommendations, emphasizing the need for digital technologies, public-private partnerships, regional energy cooperation, and environmentally sustainable field development strategies to align Iran’s gas sector with future energy transition pathways.
Co-author/s:
Saeed Abassi, Assistant Professor of Research Institute of Petroleum Industry, RIPI (Research Institute of Petroleum Industry).
Transparent quantification of carbon intensity at the level of individual supply routes is essential for guiding investment, operational choices, and policy measures in the global effort to decarbonize energy systems. However, no study to date provides a comprehensive, route-level analysis of the end-to-end carbon intensity of liquefied natural gas. In this work, we assess every major liquefaction facility (n = 45), shipping corridor (n = 7 920), and regasification terminal (n = 190) worldwide, spanning 20 exporting and 45 importing nations. Route distances ranged from 36 km to 116 774 km (median 4 217 km), with cargo volumes between 1 080 t and 2 144 990 t (median 66 476 t). We calculate the carbon intensity of liquefaction (L: 0.06–11.76 g CO₂e/MJ), shipping (S: 0.8–38.99 g CO₂e/MJ), and regasification (R: 0.006–0.343 g CO₂e/MJ), yielding combined route-level-LSR intensities of 0.29–41.18 g CO₂e/MJ (median 3.71 g CO₂e/MJ). Our findings reveal pronounced variability driven by distance, plant efficiency, vessel type, plant and terminal operations. This granular transparency enables stakeholders to identify high-impact opportunities for emissions reduction, optimise route selection, and develop targeted decarbonization strategies for the global liquefied natural gas value chain.
Soheila Zandi Lak
Speaker
Researcher in Chemical Engineering
Department of Chemical Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
The storage and transportation of liquefied methane, particularly in the form of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), has become an integral part of the global energy infrastructure. This paper examines the technological advancements in the storage, transportation, and environmental management of liquefied methane. With growing concerns about climate change and the need for low-carbon energy alternatives, LNG stands as a viable solution, offering a cleaner fuel compared to conventional fossil fuels. The paper discusses key aspects such as the liquefaction process, which significantly reduces methane's volume, thereby facilitating its long-distance transportation at a lower cost. Moreover, it highlights the environmental implications of LNG, focusing on greenhouse gas emissions associated with its lifecycle—from production and liquefaction to transportation and consumption. Additionally, the paper explores the safety concerns related to LNG storage, emphasizing the risks of boil-off gas (BOG) during transportation and the engineering solutions implemented to manage these challenges. It concludes with a forward-looking perspective on the future of LNG, considering the increasing demand for this clean energy source and the ongoing innovations aimed at enhancing its efficiency and safety. The development of more efficient storage systems and transportation technologies is crucial for ensuring the sustainability of LNG as a key energy carrier in the coming decades.
