TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Primary Energy Supply – Future Pathways
Natural Gas as a Transition Fuel
Forum 4 | Hall 10 - Technical Programme 1
14
October
09:30
11:00
UTC+3
Natural gas holds a pivotal role in the transition to a lower-carbon energy landscape due to its lower GHG emissions, when compared with other fossil fuels. It is a reliable, abundant and adaptable energy resource, and can also support the growth in electricity production from wind and solar by bolstering grid stability and energy security. Moreover, technological advancements and infrastructure development, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline networks, enhance the accessibility and efficiency of natural gas utilization. This session will delve into the potential of natural gas in facilitating a sustainable energy future. The exploration of opportunities to expand natural gas applications for technological purposes, including the production of renewable energy, will also be a focal point of discussion.
The transition to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by mid-century demands scalable, cost-effective, and infrastructure-compatible solutions that bridge the gap between current fossil-based systems and a fully renewable energy future. Natural gas, with the lowest carbon intensity among fossil fuels, can play a pivotal transitional role when coupled with advanced methane pyrolysis methods such as Thermo-Catalytic Decomposition (TCD). TCD converts methane into two valuable products—low-emission hydrogen and solid carbon—without generating CO₂ in the reaction stage, enabling pre-combustion carbon capture and significant lifecycle emission reductions.
Applied across the liquefied natural gas (LNG) value chain, TCD can process flare gas, condensates, and boil-off gas (BOG) in upstream, midstream, and maritime transport operations. This integration reduces methane slip, eliminates routine flaring, and supplies clean hydrogen for power generation, compression, and propulsion, achieving up to 85% direct emission reductions while maintaining operational reliability. The solid carbon co-product, often in the form of high-value graphene or graphite, can displace carbon-intensive materials in steelmaking, concrete, battery, and tire manufacturing, delivering additional Scope 3 emission reductions.
In maritime applications, onboard TCD systems convert BOG into hydrogen for propulsion and store solid carbon in compact tanks, offering a space-efficient alternative to conventional onboard carbon capture. Class Society approvals confirm the safety and feasibility of this approach, aligning with the International Maritime Organization’s MEPC 83 and FuelEU Maritime decarbonization targets. Similarly, in stationary applications such as LNG terminals or industrial hubs, TCD can be integrated with Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) to deliver high-efficiency, low-emission power for energy-intensive sectors, including data centers.
Lifecycle assessments (LCA), independently validated to ISO 14067:2018 standards, demonstrate that hydrogen from TCD can achieve carbon intensities as low as 18 gCO₂/MJ—up to 76% lower than conventional LNG combustion—while the displacement of synthetic graphite production further enhances net climate benefits. The modularity and scalability of TCD systems enable progressive adoption, matching tightening regulatory thresholds without imposing excessive capital or operational costs.
A technology-neutral regulatory framework is essential to fully recognize the environmental value of TCD, particularly its Scope 3 benefits, which are often excluded from current compliance schemes. When evaluated holistically, “turquoise hydrogen” from TCD can outperform green hydrogen in total emission reduction potential, especially when upstream natural gas emissions are minimized.
By transforming natural gas from a transitional fuel into a decarbonization enabler, TCD offers a pragmatic, near-term pathway to net zero. Its compatibility with existing natural gas infrastructure, ability to generate both clean energy and valuable materials, and proven readiness for industrial and maritime deployment position it as a cornerstone technology in the global energy transition.
Applied across the liquefied natural gas (LNG) value chain, TCD can process flare gas, condensates, and boil-off gas (BOG) in upstream, midstream, and maritime transport operations. This integration reduces methane slip, eliminates routine flaring, and supplies clean hydrogen for power generation, compression, and propulsion, achieving up to 85% direct emission reductions while maintaining operational reliability. The solid carbon co-product, often in the form of high-value graphene or graphite, can displace carbon-intensive materials in steelmaking, concrete, battery, and tire manufacturing, delivering additional Scope 3 emission reductions.
In maritime applications, onboard TCD systems convert BOG into hydrogen for propulsion and store solid carbon in compact tanks, offering a space-efficient alternative to conventional onboard carbon capture. Class Society approvals confirm the safety and feasibility of this approach, aligning with the International Maritime Organization’s MEPC 83 and FuelEU Maritime decarbonization targets. Similarly, in stationary applications such as LNG terminals or industrial hubs, TCD can be integrated with Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) to deliver high-efficiency, low-emission power for energy-intensive sectors, including data centers.
Lifecycle assessments (LCA), independently validated to ISO 14067:2018 standards, demonstrate that hydrogen from TCD can achieve carbon intensities as low as 18 gCO₂/MJ—up to 76% lower than conventional LNG combustion—while the displacement of synthetic graphite production further enhances net climate benefits. The modularity and scalability of TCD systems enable progressive adoption, matching tightening regulatory thresholds without imposing excessive capital or operational costs.
A technology-neutral regulatory framework is essential to fully recognize the environmental value of TCD, particularly its Scope 3 benefits, which are often excluded from current compliance schemes. When evaluated holistically, “turquoise hydrogen” from TCD can outperform green hydrogen in total emission reduction potential, especially when upstream natural gas emissions are minimized.
By transforming natural gas from a transitional fuel into a decarbonization enabler, TCD offers a pragmatic, near-term pathway to net zero. Its compatibility with existing natural gas infrastructure, ability to generate both clean energy and valuable materials, and proven readiness for industrial and maritime deployment position it as a cornerstone technology in the global energy transition.
Natural gas is expected to play a major role in Saudi Arabia’s energy system as the Kingdom advances toward Vision 2030 and its net-zero target by 2060. The Saudi Green Initiative (SGI) aims to achieve a share of 50% renewable energy and 50% natural gas in the Kingdom’s power generation capacity. This will increase the domestic consumption of natural gas, while leveraging its lower carbon intensity (CI) for power generation (350 - 450 kgCO2,eq/MWh) compared to oil-fired generation (600 - 800 kgCO2,eq/MWh). Overall, the SGI target can significantly reduce the CI of the electricity grid in Kingdom to approximately 200 kgCO2,eq/MWh. In this context, this study evaluates the potential to further reduce GHG emissions from natural gas-fired combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) through the integration of carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Here, the cost of CO2 avoidance is evaluated for natural gas CCGTs and CCGTs with CCS using techno-economic modelling and life cycle assessments for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), using its power grid as the reference case. The analysis suggests that investments in CCGTs (without CCS) incurs a cost of CO2 avoidance of $ 6/ton – $ 25/ton, until a total grid CI of approximately 400 kgCO2,eq/MWh is reached. Following which, investments in CCGT in Kingdom will accrue an exponentially increasing marginal cost of CO2 avoidance as CCGT plants do not offer any further GHG reduction potential for the grid, yet still incurs capital and operating costs. At this point, investments in CCGTs with CCS are likely to look more attractive. The cost of CO2 avoidance for natural gas CCGTs with CCS is in the range of $ 20/ton – $ 100/ton, until a total grid CI of less than 75 kgCO2,eq/MWh is reached.
Two key considerations are important to ensure a lower CI from natural gas CCGTs with CCS – lower upstream methane emissions, and higher average CO₂ capture rates. When natural gas with lower upstream emissions (≤ 5 kg CO₂,eq/GJ) is used in conjunction with an average capture rate of 95+%, CCGTs with CCS can achieve carbon intensities as low as 75 kg CO₂eq/MWh. This CI is equivalent to a system which is comprised of 80% renewables and 20% natural gas CCGTs, which may take decades to develop and mature. KSA benefits from domestic gas production with relatively lower upstream emissions which can help accelerate emissions reductions.
Nonetheless, even the best-performing CCGT plants retrofitted with CCS will generate residual emissions. Addressing these will require durable carbon dioxide removal solutions, such as direct air capture and storage, or waste-to-energy plants with CCS, which can be deployed within KSA by utilizing its extensive geological storage potential.
Here, the cost of CO2 avoidance is evaluated for natural gas CCGTs and CCGTs with CCS using techno-economic modelling and life cycle assessments for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), using its power grid as the reference case. The analysis suggests that investments in CCGTs (without CCS) incurs a cost of CO2 avoidance of $ 6/ton – $ 25/ton, until a total grid CI of approximately 400 kgCO2,eq/MWh is reached. Following which, investments in CCGT in Kingdom will accrue an exponentially increasing marginal cost of CO2 avoidance as CCGT plants do not offer any further GHG reduction potential for the grid, yet still incurs capital and operating costs. At this point, investments in CCGTs with CCS are likely to look more attractive. The cost of CO2 avoidance for natural gas CCGTs with CCS is in the range of $ 20/ton – $ 100/ton, until a total grid CI of less than 75 kgCO2,eq/MWh is reached.
Two key considerations are important to ensure a lower CI from natural gas CCGTs with CCS – lower upstream methane emissions, and higher average CO₂ capture rates. When natural gas with lower upstream emissions (≤ 5 kg CO₂,eq/GJ) is used in conjunction with an average capture rate of 95+%, CCGTs with CCS can achieve carbon intensities as low as 75 kg CO₂eq/MWh. This CI is equivalent to a system which is comprised of 80% renewables and 20% natural gas CCGTs, which may take decades to develop and mature. KSA benefits from domestic gas production with relatively lower upstream emissions which can help accelerate emissions reductions.
Nonetheless, even the best-performing CCGT plants retrofitted with CCS will generate residual emissions. Addressing these will require durable carbon dioxide removal solutions, such as direct air capture and storage, or waste-to-energy plants with CCS, which can be deployed within KSA by utilizing its extensive geological storage potential.
The Paris Agreement set ambitious global targets to stabilize and reduce carbon emissions, with electricity generation identified as one of the largest contributors to these emissions. Against this backdrop, the role of natural gas has emerged as a focal point in energy transition debates. As a fossil fuel with relatively lower carbon intensity than coal or oil, natural gas is widely regarded as a bridge fuel that can help nations lower emissions while renewable technologies mature both technologically and economically. Beyond emissions reduction, natural gas also contributes to energy security by providing flexible generation capacity that can balance the intermittency of renewables such as solar and wind. This stabilizing role is particularly critical for developing countries, where access to reliable electricity remains a pressing socio-economic need.
Despite these recognized advantages, concerns remain about the long-term implications of expanding natural gas infrastructure. The continued development of pipelines, liquefied natural gas facilities, and gas-fired power plants may create ‘lock-in’ effects, prolonging dependence on fossil fuels and slowing the pace of renewable deployment. Such structural path-dependencies risk diverting resources and policy attention away from low-carbon alternatives. However, the debate is far from settled: some experts argue that the economic and environmental advantages of natural gas are so compelling that it should not only be seen as a transition fuel but potentially as a “destination fuel” in its own right.
An important dimension of this debate is gas flaring. Globally, more than 140 billion cubic meters of gas are flared annually, releasing an estimated 400 million tons of CO₂ equivalent into the atmosphere. This practice not only exacerbates climate change but also represents a significant waste of resources that could otherwise support power generation, industrial use, or domestic consumption. Capturing and utilizing flared gas presents an immediate opportunity to reduce emissions and maximize the positive contribution of natural gas during the energy transition.
This research reviews existing literature and emerging policy discussions on the role of natural gas in decarbonization strategies. It highlights how short-term benefits such as emissions reduction, grid reliability, and energy access can be harnessed, while also recognizing the long-term risks associated with infrastructure lock-in and limited renewable deployment. To address these risks, the study examines policy-relevant approaches including stricter flaring regulation, the application of carbon pricing mechanisms, and the development of governance frameworks that discourage prolonged fossil fuel dependence. The analysis underscores that without such measures, the immediate advantages of natural gas may ultimately be outweighed by its delayed and global negative effects. Ultimately, our findings suggest that natural gas can serve as a pragmatic tool for bridging the gap to a renewable future, provided its deployment is carefully managed to prevent unintended long-term consequences.
Despite these recognized advantages, concerns remain about the long-term implications of expanding natural gas infrastructure. The continued development of pipelines, liquefied natural gas facilities, and gas-fired power plants may create ‘lock-in’ effects, prolonging dependence on fossil fuels and slowing the pace of renewable deployment. Such structural path-dependencies risk diverting resources and policy attention away from low-carbon alternatives. However, the debate is far from settled: some experts argue that the economic and environmental advantages of natural gas are so compelling that it should not only be seen as a transition fuel but potentially as a “destination fuel” in its own right.
An important dimension of this debate is gas flaring. Globally, more than 140 billion cubic meters of gas are flared annually, releasing an estimated 400 million tons of CO₂ equivalent into the atmosphere. This practice not only exacerbates climate change but also represents a significant waste of resources that could otherwise support power generation, industrial use, or domestic consumption. Capturing and utilizing flared gas presents an immediate opportunity to reduce emissions and maximize the positive contribution of natural gas during the energy transition.
This research reviews existing literature and emerging policy discussions on the role of natural gas in decarbonization strategies. It highlights how short-term benefits such as emissions reduction, grid reliability, and energy access can be harnessed, while also recognizing the long-term risks associated with infrastructure lock-in and limited renewable deployment. To address these risks, the study examines policy-relevant approaches including stricter flaring regulation, the application of carbon pricing mechanisms, and the development of governance frameworks that discourage prolonged fossil fuel dependence. The analysis underscores that without such measures, the immediate advantages of natural gas may ultimately be outweighed by its delayed and global negative effects. Ultimately, our findings suggest that natural gas can serve as a pragmatic tool for bridging the gap to a renewable future, provided its deployment is carefully managed to prevent unintended long-term consequences.
In the context of low-carbon transformation of the global energy system, controlling emissions from fossil energy is of vital importance. Simultaneously, the complex and volatile international landscape has led to prioritization of energy security in many countries, resulting in reinforcement of fossil fuel development and utilization. Major international oil and gas companies are also pursuing more stable and efficient energy transition plans. Natural gas, characterized by stability and flexibility, is an affordable and low-carbon energy source. It supplements renewable energy with regard to its uncertainty and intermittency, offering a practical solution that could support the large-scale deployment of renewable energy. However, the stable natural gas supply has always been a major concern for stakeholders, and the complex global geopolitical environment and tensions have intensified such concerns. Within the dural constraints of energy security and low-carbon development, the positioning of natural gas in different stages is in dire need to be further clarified, while a consistent medium- and long-term development strategy awaits urgent proposal.
This study focused on China perspective. On the basis of conducting an in-depth examination of the foundation and trend of natural gas development in China, we employed a combination of quantitative and qualitative analytical methods to project natural gas supply and demand outlook of China from 2025 to 2060 under different scenarios, segmented by phase and sector. A medium- and long-term development strategy was also proposed for the natural gas industry of China.
Results indicated that under various scenarios, natural gas consumption exhibited a late peak and slow decline trend, peaking by 2040 at 575–650 billion m3. Domestic natural gas production remain relatively stable in the long term, peaking at 300–320 billion m3. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, natural gas plays a key role in replacing coal and acting as a compensatory energy source in the industrial sector, thereby contributing to pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation. For the sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry, efforts are mainly put forth on enhancing natural gas supply capability, as well as promoting deep integration of natural gas and renewable energy.
This study presented a systematic and comprehensive analytical framework, incorporating a China-specific perspective to enhance the relevance and applicability of the findings, offering scientific decision-making support for policymakers, companies and other relevant stakeholders. China’s approach was shared for promoting low-carbon, sustainable and high-quality development of global natural gas industry.
This study focused on China perspective. On the basis of conducting an in-depth examination of the foundation and trend of natural gas development in China, we employed a combination of quantitative and qualitative analytical methods to project natural gas supply and demand outlook of China from 2025 to 2060 under different scenarios, segmented by phase and sector. A medium- and long-term development strategy was also proposed for the natural gas industry of China.
Results indicated that under various scenarios, natural gas consumption exhibited a late peak and slow decline trend, peaking by 2040 at 575–650 billion m3. Domestic natural gas production remain relatively stable in the long term, peaking at 300–320 billion m3. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, natural gas plays a key role in replacing coal and acting as a compensatory energy source in the industrial sector, thereby contributing to pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation. For the sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry, efforts are mainly put forth on enhancing natural gas supply capability, as well as promoting deep integration of natural gas and renewable energy.
This study presented a systematic and comprehensive analytical framework, incorporating a China-specific perspective to enhance the relevance and applicability of the findings, offering scientific decision-making support for policymakers, companies and other relevant stakeholders. China’s approach was shared for promoting low-carbon, sustainable and high-quality development of global natural gas industry.
Collins Chukwuonye
Speaker
Research Fellow
Institute of Oil, Gas, Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development (OGEES)
Nigeria
The Paris Agreement set ambitious global targets to stabilize and reduce carbon emissions, with electricity generation identified as one of the largest contributors to these emissions. Against this backdrop, the role of natural gas has emerged as a focal point in energy transition debates. As a fossil fuel with relatively lower carbon intensity than coal or oil, natural gas is widely regarded as a bridge fuel that can help nations lower emissions while renewable technologies mature both technologically and economically. Beyond emissions reduction, natural gas also contributes to energy security by providing flexible generation capacity that can balance the intermittency of renewables such as solar and wind. This stabilizing role is particularly critical for developing countries, where access to reliable electricity remains a pressing socio-economic need.
Despite these recognized advantages, concerns remain about the long-term implications of expanding natural gas infrastructure. The continued development of pipelines, liquefied natural gas facilities, and gas-fired power plants may create ‘lock-in’ effects, prolonging dependence on fossil fuels and slowing the pace of renewable deployment. Such structural path-dependencies risk diverting resources and policy attention away from low-carbon alternatives. However, the debate is far from settled: some experts argue that the economic and environmental advantages of natural gas are so compelling that it should not only be seen as a transition fuel but potentially as a “destination fuel” in its own right.
An important dimension of this debate is gas flaring. Globally, more than 140 billion cubic meters of gas are flared annually, releasing an estimated 400 million tons of CO₂ equivalent into the atmosphere. This practice not only exacerbates climate change but also represents a significant waste of resources that could otherwise support power generation, industrial use, or domestic consumption. Capturing and utilizing flared gas presents an immediate opportunity to reduce emissions and maximize the positive contribution of natural gas during the energy transition.
This research reviews existing literature and emerging policy discussions on the role of natural gas in decarbonization strategies. It highlights how short-term benefits such as emissions reduction, grid reliability, and energy access can be harnessed, while also recognizing the long-term risks associated with infrastructure lock-in and limited renewable deployment. To address these risks, the study examines policy-relevant approaches including stricter flaring regulation, the application of carbon pricing mechanisms, and the development of governance frameworks that discourage prolonged fossil fuel dependence. The analysis underscores that without such measures, the immediate advantages of natural gas may ultimately be outweighed by its delayed and global negative effects. Ultimately, our findings suggest that natural gas can serve as a pragmatic tool for bridging the gap to a renewable future, provided its deployment is carefully managed to prevent unintended long-term consequences.
Despite these recognized advantages, concerns remain about the long-term implications of expanding natural gas infrastructure. The continued development of pipelines, liquefied natural gas facilities, and gas-fired power plants may create ‘lock-in’ effects, prolonging dependence on fossil fuels and slowing the pace of renewable deployment. Such structural path-dependencies risk diverting resources and policy attention away from low-carbon alternatives. However, the debate is far from settled: some experts argue that the economic and environmental advantages of natural gas are so compelling that it should not only be seen as a transition fuel but potentially as a “destination fuel” in its own right.
An important dimension of this debate is gas flaring. Globally, more than 140 billion cubic meters of gas are flared annually, releasing an estimated 400 million tons of CO₂ equivalent into the atmosphere. This practice not only exacerbates climate change but also represents a significant waste of resources that could otherwise support power generation, industrial use, or domestic consumption. Capturing and utilizing flared gas presents an immediate opportunity to reduce emissions and maximize the positive contribution of natural gas during the energy transition.
This research reviews existing literature and emerging policy discussions on the role of natural gas in decarbonization strategies. It highlights how short-term benefits such as emissions reduction, grid reliability, and energy access can be harnessed, while also recognizing the long-term risks associated with infrastructure lock-in and limited renewable deployment. To address these risks, the study examines policy-relevant approaches including stricter flaring regulation, the application of carbon pricing mechanisms, and the development of governance frameworks that discourage prolonged fossil fuel dependence. The analysis underscores that without such measures, the immediate advantages of natural gas may ultimately be outweighed by its delayed and global negative effects. Ultimately, our findings suggest that natural gas can serve as a pragmatic tool for bridging the gap to a renewable future, provided its deployment is carefully managed to prevent unintended long-term consequences.
In the context of low-carbon transformation of the global energy system, controlling emissions from fossil energy is of vital importance. Simultaneously, the complex and volatile international landscape has led to prioritization of energy security in many countries, resulting in reinforcement of fossil fuel development and utilization. Major international oil and gas companies are also pursuing more stable and efficient energy transition plans. Natural gas, characterized by stability and flexibility, is an affordable and low-carbon energy source. It supplements renewable energy with regard to its uncertainty and intermittency, offering a practical solution that could support the large-scale deployment of renewable energy. However, the stable natural gas supply has always been a major concern for stakeholders, and the complex global geopolitical environment and tensions have intensified such concerns. Within the dural constraints of energy security and low-carbon development, the positioning of natural gas in different stages is in dire need to be further clarified, while a consistent medium- and long-term development strategy awaits urgent proposal.
This study focused on China perspective. On the basis of conducting an in-depth examination of the foundation and trend of natural gas development in China, we employed a combination of quantitative and qualitative analytical methods to project natural gas supply and demand outlook of China from 2025 to 2060 under different scenarios, segmented by phase and sector. A medium- and long-term development strategy was also proposed for the natural gas industry of China.
Results indicated that under various scenarios, natural gas consumption exhibited a late peak and slow decline trend, peaking by 2040 at 575–650 billion m3. Domestic natural gas production remain relatively stable in the long term, peaking at 300–320 billion m3. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, natural gas plays a key role in replacing coal and acting as a compensatory energy source in the industrial sector, thereby contributing to pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation. For the sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry, efforts are mainly put forth on enhancing natural gas supply capability, as well as promoting deep integration of natural gas and renewable energy.
This study presented a systematic and comprehensive analytical framework, incorporating a China-specific perspective to enhance the relevance and applicability of the findings, offering scientific decision-making support for policymakers, companies and other relevant stakeholders. China’s approach was shared for promoting low-carbon, sustainable and high-quality development of global natural gas industry.
This study focused on China perspective. On the basis of conducting an in-depth examination of the foundation and trend of natural gas development in China, we employed a combination of quantitative and qualitative analytical methods to project natural gas supply and demand outlook of China from 2025 to 2060 under different scenarios, segmented by phase and sector. A medium- and long-term development strategy was also proposed for the natural gas industry of China.
Results indicated that under various scenarios, natural gas consumption exhibited a late peak and slow decline trend, peaking by 2040 at 575–650 billion m3. Domestic natural gas production remain relatively stable in the long term, peaking at 300–320 billion m3. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, natural gas plays a key role in replacing coal and acting as a compensatory energy source in the industrial sector, thereby contributing to pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation. For the sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry, efforts are mainly put forth on enhancing natural gas supply capability, as well as promoting deep integration of natural gas and renewable energy.
This study presented a systematic and comprehensive analytical framework, incorporating a China-specific perspective to enhance the relevance and applicability of the findings, offering scientific decision-making support for policymakers, companies and other relevant stakeholders. China’s approach was shared for promoting low-carbon, sustainable and high-quality development of global natural gas industry.
The transition to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by mid-century demands scalable, cost-effective, and infrastructure-compatible solutions that bridge the gap between current fossil-based systems and a fully renewable energy future. Natural gas, with the lowest carbon intensity among fossil fuels, can play a pivotal transitional role when coupled with advanced methane pyrolysis methods such as Thermo-Catalytic Decomposition (TCD). TCD converts methane into two valuable products—low-emission hydrogen and solid carbon—without generating CO₂ in the reaction stage, enabling pre-combustion carbon capture and significant lifecycle emission reductions.
Applied across the liquefied natural gas (LNG) value chain, TCD can process flare gas, condensates, and boil-off gas (BOG) in upstream, midstream, and maritime transport operations. This integration reduces methane slip, eliminates routine flaring, and supplies clean hydrogen for power generation, compression, and propulsion, achieving up to 85% direct emission reductions while maintaining operational reliability. The solid carbon co-product, often in the form of high-value graphene or graphite, can displace carbon-intensive materials in steelmaking, concrete, battery, and tire manufacturing, delivering additional Scope 3 emission reductions.
In maritime applications, onboard TCD systems convert BOG into hydrogen for propulsion and store solid carbon in compact tanks, offering a space-efficient alternative to conventional onboard carbon capture. Class Society approvals confirm the safety and feasibility of this approach, aligning with the International Maritime Organization’s MEPC 83 and FuelEU Maritime decarbonization targets. Similarly, in stationary applications such as LNG terminals or industrial hubs, TCD can be integrated with Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) to deliver high-efficiency, low-emission power for energy-intensive sectors, including data centers.
Lifecycle assessments (LCA), independently validated to ISO 14067:2018 standards, demonstrate that hydrogen from TCD can achieve carbon intensities as low as 18 gCO₂/MJ—up to 76% lower than conventional LNG combustion—while the displacement of synthetic graphite production further enhances net climate benefits. The modularity and scalability of TCD systems enable progressive adoption, matching tightening regulatory thresholds without imposing excessive capital or operational costs.
A technology-neutral regulatory framework is essential to fully recognize the environmental value of TCD, particularly its Scope 3 benefits, which are often excluded from current compliance schemes. When evaluated holistically, “turquoise hydrogen” from TCD can outperform green hydrogen in total emission reduction potential, especially when upstream natural gas emissions are minimized.
By transforming natural gas from a transitional fuel into a decarbonization enabler, TCD offers a pragmatic, near-term pathway to net zero. Its compatibility with existing natural gas infrastructure, ability to generate both clean energy and valuable materials, and proven readiness for industrial and maritime deployment position it as a cornerstone technology in the global energy transition.
Applied across the liquefied natural gas (LNG) value chain, TCD can process flare gas, condensates, and boil-off gas (BOG) in upstream, midstream, and maritime transport operations. This integration reduces methane slip, eliminates routine flaring, and supplies clean hydrogen for power generation, compression, and propulsion, achieving up to 85% direct emission reductions while maintaining operational reliability. The solid carbon co-product, often in the form of high-value graphene or graphite, can displace carbon-intensive materials in steelmaking, concrete, battery, and tire manufacturing, delivering additional Scope 3 emission reductions.
In maritime applications, onboard TCD systems convert BOG into hydrogen for propulsion and store solid carbon in compact tanks, offering a space-efficient alternative to conventional onboard carbon capture. Class Society approvals confirm the safety and feasibility of this approach, aligning with the International Maritime Organization’s MEPC 83 and FuelEU Maritime decarbonization targets. Similarly, in stationary applications such as LNG terminals or industrial hubs, TCD can be integrated with Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) to deliver high-efficiency, low-emission power for energy-intensive sectors, including data centers.
Lifecycle assessments (LCA), independently validated to ISO 14067:2018 standards, demonstrate that hydrogen from TCD can achieve carbon intensities as low as 18 gCO₂/MJ—up to 76% lower than conventional LNG combustion—while the displacement of synthetic graphite production further enhances net climate benefits. The modularity and scalability of TCD systems enable progressive adoption, matching tightening regulatory thresholds without imposing excessive capital or operational costs.
A technology-neutral regulatory framework is essential to fully recognize the environmental value of TCD, particularly its Scope 3 benefits, which are often excluded from current compliance schemes. When evaluated holistically, “turquoise hydrogen” from TCD can outperform green hydrogen in total emission reduction potential, especially when upstream natural gas emissions are minimized.
By transforming natural gas from a transitional fuel into a decarbonization enabler, TCD offers a pragmatic, near-term pathway to net zero. Its compatibility with existing natural gas infrastructure, ability to generate both clean energy and valuable materials, and proven readiness for industrial and maritime deployment position it as a cornerstone technology in the global energy transition.
Natural gas is expected to play a major role in Saudi Arabia’s energy system as the Kingdom advances toward Vision 2030 and its net-zero target by 2060. The Saudi Green Initiative (SGI) aims to achieve a share of 50% renewable energy and 50% natural gas in the Kingdom’s power generation capacity. This will increase the domestic consumption of natural gas, while leveraging its lower carbon intensity (CI) for power generation (350 - 450 kgCO2,eq/MWh) compared to oil-fired generation (600 - 800 kgCO2,eq/MWh). Overall, the SGI target can significantly reduce the CI of the electricity grid in Kingdom to approximately 200 kgCO2,eq/MWh. In this context, this study evaluates the potential to further reduce GHG emissions from natural gas-fired combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) through the integration of carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Here, the cost of CO2 avoidance is evaluated for natural gas CCGTs and CCGTs with CCS using techno-economic modelling and life cycle assessments for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), using its power grid as the reference case. The analysis suggests that investments in CCGTs (without CCS) incurs a cost of CO2 avoidance of $ 6/ton – $ 25/ton, until a total grid CI of approximately 400 kgCO2,eq/MWh is reached. Following which, investments in CCGT in Kingdom will accrue an exponentially increasing marginal cost of CO2 avoidance as CCGT plants do not offer any further GHG reduction potential for the grid, yet still incurs capital and operating costs. At this point, investments in CCGTs with CCS are likely to look more attractive. The cost of CO2 avoidance for natural gas CCGTs with CCS is in the range of $ 20/ton – $ 100/ton, until a total grid CI of less than 75 kgCO2,eq/MWh is reached.
Two key considerations are important to ensure a lower CI from natural gas CCGTs with CCS – lower upstream methane emissions, and higher average CO₂ capture rates. When natural gas with lower upstream emissions (≤ 5 kg CO₂,eq/GJ) is used in conjunction with an average capture rate of 95+%, CCGTs with CCS can achieve carbon intensities as low as 75 kg CO₂eq/MWh. This CI is equivalent to a system which is comprised of 80% renewables and 20% natural gas CCGTs, which may take decades to develop and mature. KSA benefits from domestic gas production with relatively lower upstream emissions which can help accelerate emissions reductions.
Nonetheless, even the best-performing CCGT plants retrofitted with CCS will generate residual emissions. Addressing these will require durable carbon dioxide removal solutions, such as direct air capture and storage, or waste-to-energy plants with CCS, which can be deployed within KSA by utilizing its extensive geological storage potential.
Here, the cost of CO2 avoidance is evaluated for natural gas CCGTs and CCGTs with CCS using techno-economic modelling and life cycle assessments for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), using its power grid as the reference case. The analysis suggests that investments in CCGTs (without CCS) incurs a cost of CO2 avoidance of $ 6/ton – $ 25/ton, until a total grid CI of approximately 400 kgCO2,eq/MWh is reached. Following which, investments in CCGT in Kingdom will accrue an exponentially increasing marginal cost of CO2 avoidance as CCGT plants do not offer any further GHG reduction potential for the grid, yet still incurs capital and operating costs. At this point, investments in CCGTs with CCS are likely to look more attractive. The cost of CO2 avoidance for natural gas CCGTs with CCS is in the range of $ 20/ton – $ 100/ton, until a total grid CI of less than 75 kgCO2,eq/MWh is reached.
Two key considerations are important to ensure a lower CI from natural gas CCGTs with CCS – lower upstream methane emissions, and higher average CO₂ capture rates. When natural gas with lower upstream emissions (≤ 5 kg CO₂,eq/GJ) is used in conjunction with an average capture rate of 95+%, CCGTs with CCS can achieve carbon intensities as low as 75 kg CO₂eq/MWh. This CI is equivalent to a system which is comprised of 80% renewables and 20% natural gas CCGTs, which may take decades to develop and mature. KSA benefits from domestic gas production with relatively lower upstream emissions which can help accelerate emissions reductions.
Nonetheless, even the best-performing CCGT plants retrofitted with CCS will generate residual emissions. Addressing these will require durable carbon dioxide removal solutions, such as direct air capture and storage, or waste-to-energy plants with CCS, which can be deployed within KSA by utilizing its extensive geological storage potential.
