Amirhossein Ghasemi

Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq together represent three of the most influential oil producers in the global energy system, yet their production histories, technological trajectories, and geopolitical contexts have diverged sharply over the past century. Iran—despite its rich reserves and early start in oil production—has faced sanctions and investment constraints, while Saudi Arabia has pursued aggressive modernization and Iraq has emerged from conflict into renewed growth. This paper presents a data-rich, comparative analysis of the historical performance and future outlook of these three key producers in the context of shifting global energy dynamics. This study aims to assess Iran’s position in the global oil market through a comparative analysis with Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The objective is to uncover structural gaps, historical patterns, and future possibilities that can guide more resilient, strategic, and forward-looking oil governance for Iran. Using historical datasets from BP, OPEC, IEA, and EIA, the study reconstructs annual production and reserves data for Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq over more than a century. Key indicators such as production peaks, reserve depletion rates, and R/P ratios are analyzed alongside major political and economic disruptions. Scenario planning techniques are applied to Iran’s case using documented regional strategies (e.g., Saudi Aramco’s model, Iraqi field recovery plans) as comparative benchmarks. Policy analysis is supplemented by quantitative projections for investment gaps and production sustainability. The study also incorporates the cumulative oil extraction from the fields of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq to date, highlighting depletion rates and resource utilization efficiency. Iran’s oil sector, though challenged by sanctions and technological constraints, has demonstrated operational continuity, efficient field management, and strategic endurance. The study finds that Iran retains a large share of its recoverable reserves, signaling a high future potential if governance and investment pathways align. Compared to its peers, Iran’s resilience in maintaining output without sustained foreign capital highlights its endogenous capacity. The scenario models project a wide spectrum of outcomes, with strategic reform and green diversification offering the most promising paths. The future of Iran’s oil industry hinges not on geology, but on governance. Compared to its neighbors, Iran has a unique opportunity: it retains undepleted reserves, a skilled energy workforce, and a central geopolitical position. With strategic realignment, contract redesign, and integration into the global energy transition, Iran can reposition itself from a reactive actor to a regional leader in sustainable energy. The study provides actionable insights for policymakers and energy planners to bridge legacy structures with emerging global trends—drawing on comparative lessons from Saudi and Iraqi models to inform a distinctly Iranian path forward. Importantly, aligning national oil policy with green transition targets—such as decarbonization, energy efficiency, and investment in cleaner technologies—can enhance Iran’s long-term resilience in an increasingly climate-conscious global market.

Co-author/s:

Abbas Maleki, Professor, Sharif University of Technology.