Joachim Monkelbaan
Senior Fellow
KAPSARC
Dr. Joachim Monkelbaan is a Senior Fellow at KAPSARC, specializing in the nexus of trade, climate change, and carbon competitiveness. With over two decades of experience across academia, international organizations, and policy-making, he has advised UNEP, WHO, and the European Commission on sustainability impact assessments and green industrial strategies. Previously, he led climate–trade initiatives at the World Economic Forum and represented the Quaker UN Office in Geneva. Author of books and peer-reviewed articles on carbon competitiveness.
Participates in
TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Energy Leadership
Public Policy (Global and Local) - Climate Change, Transition Management, Supply Security and Energy Affordability
Forum 26 | Technical Programme Hall 5
27
April
15:00
16:30
UTC+3
Trade and climate policy—two critical arenas of global governance—are increasingly shaping the trajectory of energy transitions and competitiveness. As major economies implement carbon tariffs, subsidies, and green industrial policies, the risks of fragmentation and inequity grow, particularly for vulnerable economies. At the same time, trade offers opportunities to accelerate decarbonization by expanding markets for clean technologies and rewarding low-carbon production. This paper addresses the emerging concept of carbon competitiveness, defined as the capacity of nations to reduce emissions while maintaining trade and economic strength.
The research develops an integrated framework combining three novel tools. First, a Carbon Competitiveness Index (CCI) measures how countries balance emissions reductions with competitiveness, incorporating factors such as carbon intensity, leakage risk, innovation capacity, and institutional readiness. Second, long-term scenarios to 2050—developed through GTAP-E and integrated assessment modeling—map alternative futures of cooperation and fragmentation across trade and climate regimes. Third, governance blueprints translate these insights into actionable pathways, including climate clubs, carbon markets for emerging economies, and reforms of sustainability impact assessments.
Case studies, including work on steel sector decarbonization and the design of a Saudi Emissions Trading System, demonstrate how the CCI and scenarios apply in practice. These examples reveal which producers adapt successfully, how trade measures reshape competitiveness, and how Global South exporters may be affected. Beyond diagnostics, the project introduces a deliberative forum approach, bringing together negotiators, policymakers, and business leaders in structured dialogue to bridge technical analysis with political feasibility.
The paper contributes to global debates on energy, trade, and climate change by:
By reframing trade not as an obstacle but as an engine for equitable decarbonization, this work provides pragmatic pathways for balancing climate ambition with competitiveness. It speaks directly to the WPC theme Pathways to an Energy Future for All, offering insights for policymakers, industry, and scholars navigating the evolving trade–climate–energy nexus.
The research develops an integrated framework combining three novel tools. First, a Carbon Competitiveness Index (CCI) measures how countries balance emissions reductions with competitiveness, incorporating factors such as carbon intensity, leakage risk, innovation capacity, and institutional readiness. Second, long-term scenarios to 2050—developed through GTAP-E and integrated assessment modeling—map alternative futures of cooperation and fragmentation across trade and climate regimes. Third, governance blueprints translate these insights into actionable pathways, including climate clubs, carbon markets for emerging economies, and reforms of sustainability impact assessments.
Case studies, including work on steel sector decarbonization and the design of a Saudi Emissions Trading System, demonstrate how the CCI and scenarios apply in practice. These examples reveal which producers adapt successfully, how trade measures reshape competitiveness, and how Global South exporters may be affected. Beyond diagnostics, the project introduces a deliberative forum approach, bringing together negotiators, policymakers, and business leaders in structured dialogue to bridge technical analysis with political feasibility.
The paper contributes to global debates on energy, trade, and climate change by:
- Advancing new metrics to capture carbon competitiveness.
- Offering foresight tools for turbulent futures.
- Designing governance innovations that link trade, climate, and equity.
By reframing trade not as an obstacle but as an engine for equitable decarbonization, this work provides pragmatic pathways for balancing climate ambition with competitiveness. It speaks directly to the WPC theme Pathways to an Energy Future for All, offering insights for policymakers, industry, and scholars navigating the evolving trade–climate–energy nexus.
