Zhang Jianping

Humanity is undergoing its fourth major energy transition, following the biomass, coal, and hydrocarbon eras. As the lowest-carbon fossil fuel, natural gas is poised to play a pivotal role in this transformation. While conventional research often labels it a "transition fuel," deeper analysis reveals that no existing energy source can fully resolve the ‌Energy Trilemma‌—balancing economic viability, environmental sustainability, and supply security. When assessed holistically within global energy systems, natural gas transcends its temporary bridging role, emerging as a ‌system stabilizer‌ with enduring value.

Core Attributes of Natural Gas as a Balancing Energy Source：

1. Environmental Advantage‌: Generates 50-60% less CO₂ emissions than coal in power generation, with near-zero particulate emissions.


2. Grid Stability‌: Delivers baseload power with 90-95% reliability, significantly outperforming intermittent renewables like solar (15-25% capacity utilization).


3. Economic Scalability‌: The shale gas revolution and LNG technological breakthroughs have reduced global supply costs by 40-65% since 2010.

Strategic Integration Pathways：
Moving beyond the "transition fuel" paradigm, this study proposes four actionable strategies:

1. Coal Phase-Out Acceleration‌: Systematically replace coal in developing economies, leveraging gas-to-power projects to cut emissions while ensuring energy access.


2. Renewable Energy Synergy‌: Provide peak-shaving support for variable renewable power, enhancing grid stability through hybrid gas-renewable systems.


3. Hydrogen Industry Incubation‌: Capitalize on infrastructure synergies between natural gas and hydrogen (e.g., shared pipelines, storage facilities) to accelerate green hydrogen scaling.


4. Carbon Sequestration Leverage‌: Repurpose depleted gas reservoirs and existing infrastructure for cost-effective carbon capture and storage (CCS).

Redefining Natural Gas as a Flexibility Multiplier:
Reconceptualized as a ‌flexibility multiplier‌, natural gas demonstrates irreplaceable value in:

1. Accelerating Coal Retirements‌: Enabling emerging economies to bypass coal-dependent development pathways.


2. Grid Inertia Provision‌: Supplying rotational inertia for renewable-heavy grids, preventing frequency collapses during solar/wind fluctuations.


3. Hard-to-Abate Sector Decarbonization‌: Serving as a transitional feedstock for steel and cement industries, where direct electrification remains technologically constrained.


4. This systemic reconfiguration positions natural gas not merely as a compromise but as a linchpin for resolving the Energy Trilemma. By integrating its transitional strengths with long-term decarbonization imperatives, natural gas can catalyze the structural shifts needed to achieve carbon neutrality goals.