Liang Jing

The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand is expected to double or even triple in the coming decades. The carbon intensity (CI) of the LNG value chain is a critical metric for assessing the climate impact of this growth. This study evaluates the CI across 90% of the global LNG market, covering the top ten exporters and thirty-seven importers across Asia, Europe, North America, Oceania, and Africa. Exporting countries such as Qatar, Australia, and the U.S. account for 74% of global exports, while Japan, China, and Korea lead imports, representing over 50% of the market. The results show that the well-to-liquefaction CI ranges from 13.7 to 17.0 gCO2e/MJ with an average of 15.2 gCO2e/MJ, whereas the well-to-regasification CI spans from 15.3 to 18.6 gCO2e/MJ with an average of 16.9 gCO2e/MJ. These estimates can be translated into 313 million tons of CO2 per year from the global LNG supply chain. Methane emissions significantly contribute to the overall CI, accounting for 43% of exporter emissions and 39% for importers. Super emitters, idenfitied via satellite monitoring, contribute 21% and 19% of the total CI of exporters and importers, respectively. Additionally, CO2 venting accounts for 22% and 19% of the total CI in Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively, highlighting regional variances. The inclusion of 15 global carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities offers insights into potential emissions mitigation strategies in the LNG sector. This comprehensive assessment underscores the need for targeted strategies to reduce CI across the global LNG value chain.