Muhammad Yousuf Jabbar
Senior Scientist
Saudi Aramco
Muhammad Yousuf Jabbar is a Senior Scientist at Saudi Aramco, focusing on carbon intensity modeling, LNG traceability, and CCUS systems analysis. He has over 15 years of experience across ESG, reservoir engineering, and Life Cycle Assessment in Canada and Middle East. At Aramco, he contributes to the development of the Archie LNG and Archie Oil platforms, integrating TEA-LCA models with global data to support strategic decision-making. Muhammad earned his Master’s in Petroleum Engineering and Ph.D. in Chemical & Petroleum Engineering from the University of Calgary.
Participates in
TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Energy Infrastructure
Navigating the Future: Innovations & Market Dynamics in LNG, FLNG, & CNG
Forum 07 | Digital Poster Plaza 2
27
April
15:30
17:30
UTC+3
Global LNG trade exceeded ~ 390 Mt in 2022 and is poised to grow as Qatar’s North Field East and additional U.S. Gulf Coast trains ramp before 2026. Accurate, transparent freight costing is therefore critical for investment screening, cargo arbitrage, and carbon-levy design. We present PEARL-LNG-RO (Predictive Econometric and Route Logistics—Routing Optimizer) —an open, voyage-level framework that couples AIS-derived tracks with vessel-specification databases and contemporaneous bunker, charter, canal, and port tariffs in a single techno-economic engine, augmented with a linear-programming assignment that minimizes the global spot-trade freight cost under terminal-level supply-demand and LNG density constraints.
For each round trip (laden and ballast), PEARL-LNG-RO solves interconnected boil-off, heel management, and propulsion equations across five engine families (Steam, DFDE, X-DF, ME-GI, and STaGE), allocates fuel between main and auxiliary, and prices consumption using monthly HFO/ MDO and LNG indices (Brent, TTF, Henry Hub, and JKM). The 2022 calibration covers 5,642 laden voyages (≈ 370 Mt delivered) linking ~1,200 export–import pairs. The volume-weighted mean port-to-port freight is $ 2.49/MMBtu (5th–95th percentile: $ 0.59–6.88/MMBtu), with cost shares: charter 64%, fuel 25%, ports 5.1%, operations 5.6%, and canals 1.3%. Route contrasts are large: US Gulf Coast to Northeast Asia via Panama averages 4.76 USD/MMBtu, whereas Intra-Mediterranean averages 1.84 USD MMBtu⁻¹ both including charter.
Applying the optimization to observed spot voyages (N = 1,647; ~104 Mt) reduces the energy-weighted average freight from $2.86 to $1.66/MMBtu (−42%) by reallocating flows among feasible terminal pairs within lean/rich density classes. This provides a quantitative upper bound on savings available from coordinated charter strategy and routing, subject to real-world constraints (contracts, berthing windows, boil-off limits). From our companion Global LNG supply chain analysis, route/engine heterogeneity yields 0.80–1.9 g CO₂e/MJ. Under an output-based levy at $100/t-CO₂, the incremental cost adds ≈$0.50/MMBtu to typical voyages.
The open-source codebase and calibrated dataset enable voyage-level benchmarking and charter-strategy optimization when paired with life-cycle emissions assessment from our companion study; they can inform cost-and carbon-aware routing decisions across trading basins.
For each round trip (laden and ballast), PEARL-LNG-RO solves interconnected boil-off, heel management, and propulsion equations across five engine families (Steam, DFDE, X-DF, ME-GI, and STaGE), allocates fuel between main and auxiliary, and prices consumption using monthly HFO/ MDO and LNG indices (Brent, TTF, Henry Hub, and JKM). The 2022 calibration covers 5,642 laden voyages (≈ 370 Mt delivered) linking ~1,200 export–import pairs. The volume-weighted mean port-to-port freight is $ 2.49/MMBtu (5th–95th percentile: $ 0.59–6.88/MMBtu), with cost shares: charter 64%, fuel 25%, ports 5.1%, operations 5.6%, and canals 1.3%. Route contrasts are large: US Gulf Coast to Northeast Asia via Panama averages 4.76 USD/MMBtu, whereas Intra-Mediterranean averages 1.84 USD MMBtu⁻¹ both including charter.
Applying the optimization to observed spot voyages (N = 1,647; ~104 Mt) reduces the energy-weighted average freight from $2.86 to $1.66/MMBtu (−42%) by reallocating flows among feasible terminal pairs within lean/rich density classes. This provides a quantitative upper bound on savings available from coordinated charter strategy and routing, subject to real-world constraints (contracts, berthing windows, boil-off limits). From our companion Global LNG supply chain analysis, route/engine heterogeneity yields 0.80–1.9 g CO₂e/MJ. Under an output-based levy at $100/t-CO₂, the incremental cost adds ≈$0.50/MMBtu to typical voyages.
The open-source codebase and calibrated dataset enable voyage-level benchmarking and charter-strategy optimization when paired with life-cycle emissions assessment from our companion study; they can inform cost-and carbon-aware routing decisions across trading basins.
