Yagyavalk Bhatt
Fellow
King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC)
Yagyavalk Bhatt is a Fellow in the Transportation and Infrastructure Department. His expertise includes energy policy, energy economics, transport modeling, the impact analysis of transport policies, emerging economies’ energy transitions, renewable energy, and cost-benefit analyses in the transport and electricity sectors. He has authored and contributed to numerous research papers and studies related to these fields. Yagyavalk also leads “The Role of Clean Energy Policies: Trends in India’s Transport Sector”, a project aimed at estimating India’s transport energy demand and assessing its potential impact on the crude oil supply chain
Participates in
TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Energy Technologies
Powering Mobility: The Energy Transition and the Future of Transportation
Forum 24 | Digital Poster Plaza 4
30
April
12:00
14:00
UTC+3
Saudi Arabia’s land transport sector plays a key role in the country’s energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study uses GCAM-KSA—a customized version of the Global Change Assessment Model—to analyze future trends in energy consumption and emissions in Saudi Arabia's land transport system through 2060. The analysis examines three policy scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Current Ambition (CA), and Accelerated Emissions Reduction (AER), to assess the long-term effects of different policy levels.
The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of current trends, including limited modal shifts, ongoing fuel economy standards, and energy price reforms until 2025. In this pathway, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles continue to dominate both passenger and freight transport, resulting in only marginal changes in fuel demand and CO₂ emissions. The CA scenario includes incremental policy improvements, such as modest modal shifts (a 20% increase by 2060), targeted clean vehicle penetration (8% of new national vehicle sales by 2030), and partial electrification. While this leads to some efficiency gains and emissions reductions, the overall trajectory remains insufficient to meet deep decarbonization goals.
The AER scenario outlines a transformative policy framework that encompasses bold measures, including the complete deregulation of fuel prices by 2030, the introduction of a program to phase out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, the acceleration of clean-emission vehicle (CEV) adoption, and the expansion of public transit infrastructure. These measures are expected to lead to a significant modal shift (30% by 2060) towards rail and buses, along with widespread electrification of both light- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets, and the adoption of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. As a result, passenger and freight transport systems under AER show an almost complete shift to low-carbon technologies and modes, resulting in a reduction of tailpipe CO₂ emissions to just 29 MtCO₂ by 2060, approximately an 80% decrease from 2020 levels.
The study also considers upstream (well-to-tank) emissions, showing that while the AER pathway initially sees an increase in these emissions due to the use of fossil-intensive electricity, they decrease significantly by 2060 through grid decarbonization and the adoption of clean hydrogen. This well-to-wheel analysis underscores the importance of coordinated reforms in transport and energy systems.
Overall, the findings demonstrate that policy ambition is the most important factor in Saudi Arabia’s ability to achieve its Vision 2030 and net-zero 2060 goals. The AER scenario underscores the extensive systemic changes required, emphasizing the importance of coordinated investments in clean technologies, public transportation, behavioral changes, and institutional reforms. These insights are relevant not only to Saudi Arabia but also provide valuable guidance for other economies working toward sustainable mobility.
The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of current trends, including limited modal shifts, ongoing fuel economy standards, and energy price reforms until 2025. In this pathway, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles continue to dominate both passenger and freight transport, resulting in only marginal changes in fuel demand and CO₂ emissions. The CA scenario includes incremental policy improvements, such as modest modal shifts (a 20% increase by 2060), targeted clean vehicle penetration (8% of new national vehicle sales by 2030), and partial electrification. While this leads to some efficiency gains and emissions reductions, the overall trajectory remains insufficient to meet deep decarbonization goals.
The AER scenario outlines a transformative policy framework that encompasses bold measures, including the complete deregulation of fuel prices by 2030, the introduction of a program to phase out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, the acceleration of clean-emission vehicle (CEV) adoption, and the expansion of public transit infrastructure. These measures are expected to lead to a significant modal shift (30% by 2060) towards rail and buses, along with widespread electrification of both light- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets, and the adoption of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. As a result, passenger and freight transport systems under AER show an almost complete shift to low-carbon technologies and modes, resulting in a reduction of tailpipe CO₂ emissions to just 29 MtCO₂ by 2060, approximately an 80% decrease from 2020 levels.
The study also considers upstream (well-to-tank) emissions, showing that while the AER pathway initially sees an increase in these emissions due to the use of fossil-intensive electricity, they decrease significantly by 2060 through grid decarbonization and the adoption of clean hydrogen. This well-to-wheel analysis underscores the importance of coordinated reforms in transport and energy systems.
Overall, the findings demonstrate that policy ambition is the most important factor in Saudi Arabia’s ability to achieve its Vision 2030 and net-zero 2060 goals. The AER scenario underscores the extensive systemic changes required, emphasizing the importance of coordinated investments in clean technologies, public transportation, behavioral changes, and institutional reforms. These insights are relevant not only to Saudi Arabia but also provide valuable guidance for other economies working toward sustainable mobility.
