Hassan Alzain
Environmental Management Graduate
Yale University (Nationally Sponsored)
Hassan Alzain is an Environmental Scientist and International Climate Policy Analyst pursuing a Master of Environmental Management at Yale University. He previously served at Aramco, advancing climate policy, sustainability reporting, and participated at UNFCCC COPs. A Chartered Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Environmental Health, he has authored over 37 international publications and co-authored the award-winning book Green Gambit. His work centers on energy transition, climate change, and sustainable development strategies.
Participates in
TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Energy Leadership
Public Policy (Global and Local) - Climate Change, Transition Management, Supply Security and Energy Affordability
Forum 26 | Digital Poster Plaza 5
28
April
10:00
12:00
UTC+3
This paper critically examines the economic costs of climate mitigation measures and their implications for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 diversification agenda. Through scenario-based modeling of 1.5-2°C, 3°C, and 4°C warming trajectories, it quantify the financial burdens and structural challenges associated with aligning ambitious economic transformation with global climate action. Results indicate that stringent climate policies under the 2°C scenario could incur cumulative costs of $1.2-1.5 trillion by mid-century, alongside GDP contractions of 3.2%, 5.7%, and 7.6% by 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. Sectoral analysis shows disproportionate impacts: manufacturing faces potential carbon liabilities of 12-18% of current asset values, while tourism GDP could fall by up to 1.1% by 2040. The hydrocarbon sector remains the primary channel of economic disruption, accounting for 42% of projected GDP contractions despite diversification efforts.
The fiscal analysis reveals a timing mismatch: transformation investments of $290-440 billion through 2040 must be frontloaded just as oil revenues decline, creating a 25-40% revenue gap by 2040. Labor market modeling suggests a net displacement of 50,000-90,000 workers under stringent pathways, though renewable energy, hydrogen, and circular economy sectors could generate 90,000-190,000 new jobs.
Policy scenario evaluation highlights the “Balanced Transition Portfolio” as the most effective strategy, combining moderate carbon pricing, sectoral protections, and accelerated renewable deployment to reduce economic impacts by 30-45%. Additionally, introducing producer-side carbon pricing could generate $80-100 billion annually by 2030, transforming mitigation from a fiscal liability into a strategic revenue stream that funds diversification.
This study advances the dialogue on energy leadership by reframing climate mitigation not solely as a cost but as a pathway to resilience and competitive advantage. By integrating fiscal reform, sectoral adaptation, and labor market transition into a cohesive policy portfolio, Saudi Arabia, and other resource-dependent economies, can lead in shaping equitable pathways toward an energy future for all.
Keywords: Climate Mitigation Costs, Carbon Pricing, Economic Diversification, Fiscal Policy, Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, Energy Leadership
The fiscal analysis reveals a timing mismatch: transformation investments of $290-440 billion through 2040 must be frontloaded just as oil revenues decline, creating a 25-40% revenue gap by 2040. Labor market modeling suggests a net displacement of 50,000-90,000 workers under stringent pathways, though renewable energy, hydrogen, and circular economy sectors could generate 90,000-190,000 new jobs.
Policy scenario evaluation highlights the “Balanced Transition Portfolio” as the most effective strategy, combining moderate carbon pricing, sectoral protections, and accelerated renewable deployment to reduce economic impacts by 30-45%. Additionally, introducing producer-side carbon pricing could generate $80-100 billion annually by 2030, transforming mitigation from a fiscal liability into a strategic revenue stream that funds diversification.
This study advances the dialogue on energy leadership by reframing climate mitigation not solely as a cost but as a pathway to resilience and competitive advantage. By integrating fiscal reform, sectoral adaptation, and labor market transition into a cohesive policy portfolio, Saudi Arabia, and other resource-dependent economies, can lead in shaping equitable pathways toward an energy future for all.
Keywords: Climate Mitigation Costs, Carbon Pricing, Economic Diversification, Fiscal Policy, Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, Energy Leadership
