Pengcheng Zhang

Global energy development is facing severe challenges, and energy security has become the top concern of major countries since 2022. We have been through a major energy crisis when global energy prices soared due to regional conflicts, and energy supply interruptions caused by sanctions, system failures, cyber-attacks and extreme weather occurred more frequently. The geopolitical competition for natural gas and critical minerals needed in electrical industry have intensified. The long-term goal of coping with climate change is in conflict with the short-term goal of energy security. The concept of energy security has to evolve with time. Therefore, the future energy security should be energy system security or integrated energy security, which takes all energy sources and emergency scenarios into account, including oil, gas, coal and electricity, to ensure the sufficiency, efficiency, coordination and resilience of the entire energy system. Accordingly, we propose the definition of energy security as "a state in which the energy system of a country or region has the resilience to operate efficiently, stably and sustainably under most circumstances". By analyzing the risk factors affecting energy security, this study selected specific indicators from four dimensions to evaluate the situation of energy security. First, Accessibility, which includes geopolitical factors, supply and demand situation, energy investment, installed power capacity, critical mineral supply and other factors that affect the stable supply of energy. The second is Sustainability, which includes energy intensity, energy production mix, greenhouse gas emissions, energy technology and other factors that affect the quality of energy development and environmental sustainability in the medium and long term. Third, Affordability, including energy prices, energy poverty and energy production costs that affect consumer affordability and the cost of energy production. Fourth, Resilience, which includes surplus capacity, energy storage, international energy cooperation, infrastructure security, network system security, emergency response mechanism and industrial chain stability that affect the redundancy and flexibility of energy systems, as well as the ability to cope with unexpected shocks. Under this framework, we established “RASA Global Energy Security Assessment System”. With data from 1970-2024, we evaluated global energy security situation and identified four major energy security shocks: the first and second oil crises, the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2022 global energy crisis. This study also proposed pathways for policymakers to build a resilient energy system.