Mohammad Alami Bayat
Senior Economist & Head of American Countries Affairs
Ministry of Petroleum
Dr. Mohammad Alami Bayat is a senior economist with long-standing expertise in applying artificial intelligence to financial and energy-economic data analysis. He began working with AI-based modeling techniques in 2005, a focus that shaped both his early research and his doctoral dissertation.
He earned his PhD in Finance from the University of Lugano and the Swiss Finance Institute in 2009, where his work centered on advancing AI-driven approaches to financial risk management, especially in the valuation of options and futures contracts.
Since joining the Ministry of Petroleum, Dr. Bayat has served within the Deputy of Trade and International Affairs, contributing to international market assessments, strategic planning, and economic evaluations. He currently serves as Senior Economist and Head of American Countries Affairs within the EU, America and CIS Directorate.
In addition to his governmental role, Dr. Bayat has taught finance to MBA and EMBA audiences, drawing on his academic background and extensive applied experience in financial economics and AI-driven analysis. His work reflects a strong commitment to advancing innovative, data-driven methodologies in the energy sector.
Participates in
TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Energy Leadership
This project introduces an AI-driven approach to scenario modeling, designed to improve strategic decision-making in the petroleum sector. AI processes vast amounts of information, including market trends, regulatory signals, expert analyses, and real-time economic data, to build predictive scenarios that help companies navigate uncertainty. Unlike traditional models, AI can incorporate both numerical data and expert viewpoints, leading to more reliable forecasts and investment strategies. When combined with real options theory, AI helps determine the right moments to invest, disinvest, or adjust financial plans based on changing future conditions.
The work first examines how AI-powered tools are currently used across the industry, from daily operations to risk management and long-term strategic planning. It then explores AI’s expanding role in refining market forecasts, improving financial models, and supporting executive decision-making when paired with human expertise.
Building on previous studies, industry case studies, and insights from my doctoral thesis, this analysis highlights both theoretical foundations and practical applications of AI in investment strategy. By integrating AI with economic modeling and expert judgment, petroleum companies can refine business strategies, mitigate risks, and optimize investment decisions in an uncertain economic climate. This analysis presents a clear framework for industry leaders looking to modernize their approach to decision-making.
