Fahad Alyahya
Oil & Gas Associate
KAPSARC
Fahad Alyahya is an Oil & Gas Research Associate at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Combining a foundation in mechanical engineering with growing experience in energy economics, Fahad contributes to the analysis of global energy markets, focusing on supply chain opacity, market fundamentals, and geopolitical risk.
Currently, Fahad works within KAPSARC’s Oil & Gas program, specializing in building economic models and performing market analysis. His work aims to bridge the gap between technical data and strategic policy, offering stakeholders insights into the dynamics of the energy transition and fossil fuel markets. His background—holding a B.Sc. in Mechanical Engineering with Second Class Honours from King Saud University—allows him to approach economic forecasting with a systems-based engineering perspective.
Fahad’s research portfolio includes a focus on the "grey zones" of the global energy trade. He has co-authored papers investigating illicit oil movements, including Phantom Oil Movements: An Investigation into Opaque Ship-to-Ship Operations and Unravelling the Black Market for Oil. These works examine the mechanisms of sanctions evasion and the effects of phantom trade on energy security and global trade balances. By utilizing satellite data and analyzing discrepancies in reported trade figures, Fahad has helped explore the complex webs of the black market for oil, offering insights into how alternative economic systems function under geopolitical pressure.
Participates in
TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Energy Infrastructure
- Assertive countermeasures – seeing the adversary. We review state-of-practice detection tools—molecular fuel markers, space-borne and AIS-enabled vessel tracking, persistent UAV/aerostat surveillance, and SCADA-linked flow analytics. Combined deployment of these technologies raises discovery probability and pushes the expected return on smuggling below commercial thresholds.
- Structural countermeasures – reshaping the incentive terrain. Cross-country evidence from Nigeria, Pakistan and Mexico shows that fuel-price asymmetries created by untargeted subsidies and foreign-exchange distortions are primary drivers of phantom oil arbitrage. We model three reform paths—abrupt, phased and targeted—and demonstrate that pairing compensatory cash transfers with transparent price adjustments maximises welfare while suppressing illicit margins.
- Fortifying countermeasures – institutional resilience.
Mandatory beneficial-ownership disclosure, ESG-aligned due-diligence reporting and inter-agency “legal-finish” task forces curb corporate anonymity and close prosecution gaps. At the multilateral level, we outline design principles for a hydrocarbons-specific transparency regime analogous to the Kimberley Process, supported by mutual legal-assistance treaties and calibrated diplomatic incentives.
A modality matrix maps recommended actions to actor typologies (state, criminal network, opportunistic trader) and to implementation horizons (immediate, medium, long term). Simulated application in a mid-income coastal state suggests the layered package can reduce phantom volumes by 60 % within five years while preserving lawful trade flows.
The analysis confirms that piecemeal interventions are insufficient; only an adaptive, mutually reinforcing suite of measures can realign incentives, close enforcement gaps and safeguard the integrity of future energy markets.
Co-author/s:
David Soud, I.R. Consilium, KAPSARC.
Majed Alsuwailem,KAPSARC
Claudia Belahmidi, KAPSARC.
