Olivier Durand-Lasserve
Principal Fellow
KAPSARC
Olivier Durand-Lasserve is an economist specializing in modeling and policy analysis. He holds an MSc in Energy and Environmental Economics and a PhD in Economics. At KAPSARC, his work focuses primarily on assessing the economic impacts of domestic energy policies and developing long-term economic scenarios for Saudi Arabia. Before joining KAPSARC, Olivier worked as an economist at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and ENGIE.
Participates in
TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Energy Fuels and Molecules
Pathways to Net-Zero Refining and Petrochemical Facilities
Forum 16 | Technical Programme Hall 3
29
April
14:30
16:00
UTC+3
The petrochemical sector presents distinct challenges for deep decarbonization modeling due to its dual reliance on energy inputs and carbon-based feedstocks. As a cornerstone of industrial output in many oil-exporting economies, its accurate representation is vital for informed policy design. However, current modeling approaches exhibit a critical gap: integrated assessment models (IAMs) often oversimplify petrochemical systems, while specialized sectoral models lack integration with broader energy dynamics. These limitations risk producing unrealistic decarbonization pathways and overlooking key policy levers.
This presentation introduces a novel implementation of the petrochemical sector within the TIMES framework, a technology-rich, bottom-up, linear programming-based energy system model. The enhanced representation includes over 40 petrochemical products and 50 industrial processes, capturing detailed system interactions such as feedstock substitution, bilateral and multilateral trade in petrochemical products, and policy instruments like tariffs. To our knowledge, no public analysis has implemented such a comprehensive and integrated approach within a full energy system model.
By explicitly tracking carbon flows, recycling loops, and process-level alternatives, the model uncovers coherent, feasible transition pathways that are typically obscured in aggregated models. We present two scenario designs, Current Policy and Carbon Neutrality by 2050, to demonstrate the model’s capacity to evaluate hydrogen-based transitions, bio-circular strategies, technology policy interventions, and cross-sector coupling.
Preliminary results show:
This enhanced TIMES implementation bridges a critical modeling gap and provides a robust platform for evaluating petrochemical decarbonization strategies within global energy system transitions.
Co-author/s:
Abdullah Aljarboua, Senior Fellow, Energy Macro & Microeconomics, KAPSARC.
Ryan Alyamani, Fellow, KAPSARC.
This presentation introduces a novel implementation of the petrochemical sector within the TIMES framework, a technology-rich, bottom-up, linear programming-based energy system model. The enhanced representation includes over 40 petrochemical products and 50 industrial processes, capturing detailed system interactions such as feedstock substitution, bilateral and multilateral trade in petrochemical products, and policy instruments like tariffs. To our knowledge, no public analysis has implemented such a comprehensive and integrated approach within a full energy system model.
By explicitly tracking carbon flows, recycling loops, and process-level alternatives, the model uncovers coherent, feasible transition pathways that are typically obscured in aggregated models. We present two scenario designs, Current Policy and Carbon Neutrality by 2050, to demonstrate the model’s capacity to evaluate hydrogen-based transitions, bio-circular strategies, technology policy interventions, and cross-sector coupling.
Preliminary results show:
- A transition away from coal and a shift from dry gas to natural gas liquids as primary feedstocks.
- A significant increase in hydrogen use in final energy consumption within the petrochemical sector.
- An endogenous CO₂ price reaching ~$300/ton by 2050 under the carbon neutrality scenario.
This enhanced TIMES implementation bridges a critical modeling gap and provides a robust platform for evaluating petrochemical decarbonization strategies within global energy system transitions.
Co-author/s:
Abdullah Aljarboua, Senior Fellow, Energy Macro & Microeconomics, KAPSARC.
Ryan Alyamani, Fellow, KAPSARC.
