TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Energy Fuels and Molecules – Future Pathways
Pathways to Net-Zero Refining and Petrochemical Facilities
Forum 16 | Hall 9 - Technical Programme 3
29
April
14:30
16:00
UTC+3
Work towards achieving net-zero emissions at assets by discovering leading-edge technologies and processes. As the refining and petrochemical sector responds to emerging carbon policies and regulations around the world, learn how to integrate renewable energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and process optimisations to reduce environmental impacts. Conversations will also highlight successful case studies, opportunities and challenges to enhancing operations, and balancing both economic and environmental interests.
Efforts are underway to expand the use of low-carbon feedstocks for decarbonizing petroleum refining and petrochemical processes. To advance this efficiently, sophisticated composition control of refining streams is essential. To achieve this, hydrocarbonomics technology, which expands petroleomics to various hydrocarbons beyond petroleum, is being developed. Low-carbon feedstocks obtained from the decomposition of biomass and used plastics contain a diverse array of molecules not found in petroleum. Proper handling of these feedstocks requires analysis and optimization using hydrocarbonomics technology.
In petroleomics, ultra-high-resolution mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS) is utilized to identify millions of petroleum molecules. Furthermore, hydrocarbonomics must handle not only petroleum molecules but also heteroatom-containing compounds unique to low-carbon feedstocks, such as oxygenates and chlorinated compounds. New analytical techniques are being developed to selectively detect and identify these heteroatom-containing compounds. Simultaneously, systems are being developed to feedback molecular composition information into the preparation conditions of low-carbon feedstocks and to reflect this information in the co-processing methods of low-carbon feedstocks with petroleum fractions. By comprehensively utilizing these technologies, the decarbonization of petroleum refining and petrochemical processes can be efficiently advanced.
As an example, the overall optimization of the ARDS-RFCC process is explained. In ARDS, atmospheric residue (AR) is desulfurized through fixed-bed catalytic reactions to produce desulfurized heavy oil (DSAR), which is then cracked in the RFCC fluidized bed to produce naphtha and gasoline fractions. In ARDS, catalyst deactivation due to coke degradation is a problem. On the other hand, in RFCC, the catalyst circulates between the reactor (riser) and the regenerator, burning off the coke produced in the reaction. Therefore, catalyst deactivation is not the main concern; rather, conversion rate and selectivity are crucial. By adjusting the ARDS catalyst, the molecular composition of DSAR is precisely controlled, suppressing catalyst deactivation in ARDS while achieving high conversion rates and selectivity in RFCC.
In petroleomics, ultra-high-resolution mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS) is utilized to identify millions of petroleum molecules. Furthermore, hydrocarbonomics must handle not only petroleum molecules but also heteroatom-containing compounds unique to low-carbon feedstocks, such as oxygenates and chlorinated compounds. New analytical techniques are being developed to selectively detect and identify these heteroatom-containing compounds. Simultaneously, systems are being developed to feedback molecular composition information into the preparation conditions of low-carbon feedstocks and to reflect this information in the co-processing methods of low-carbon feedstocks with petroleum fractions. By comprehensively utilizing these technologies, the decarbonization of petroleum refining and petrochemical processes can be efficiently advanced.
As an example, the overall optimization of the ARDS-RFCC process is explained. In ARDS, atmospheric residue (AR) is desulfurized through fixed-bed catalytic reactions to produce desulfurized heavy oil (DSAR), which is then cracked in the RFCC fluidized bed to produce naphtha and gasoline fractions. In ARDS, catalyst deactivation due to coke degradation is a problem. On the other hand, in RFCC, the catalyst circulates between the reactor (riser) and the regenerator, burning off the coke produced in the reaction. Therefore, catalyst deactivation is not the main concern; rather, conversion rate and selectivity are crucial. By adjusting the ARDS catalyst, the molecular composition of DSAR is precisely controlled, suppressing catalyst deactivation in ARDS while achieving high conversion rates and selectivity in RFCC.
In the face of climate change and a growing global commitment to sustainability, a wave of countries and oil companies are boldly setting net-zero targets. As these ambitious goals take shape, we foresee a significant change in the primary energy landscape.
Can the Global refining industry follow the same course and decarbonise to meet net-zero in the face of rapidly rising fuels demand and the need for affordable energy? This transformative journey demands the adoption of cutting-edge technologies, the relentless pursuit of energy efficiency, the embrace of biofuels, and a decisive shift toward low-carbon feedstocks.
This presentation will cover the most important topics, including:
A robust refinery decarbonization strategy is not just essential; it is imperative for aligning energy demand with our climate aspirations. The time for action is now!
Co-author/s:
Gaurav Tyagi, Associate Director, OMD Consulting, S&P Global.
Can the Global refining industry follow the same course and decarbonise to meet net-zero in the face of rapidly rising fuels demand and the need for affordable energy? This transformative journey demands the adoption of cutting-edge technologies, the relentless pursuit of energy efficiency, the embrace of biofuels, and a decisive shift toward low-carbon feedstocks.
This presentation will cover the most important topics, including:
- Net-zero commitments made by various countries and oil companies.
- The challenges in the journey toward energy transition such as the anticipated shift in primary energy demand through 2050, as well as the projected changes in refined product demand during the same period.
- The expected addition of new refinery capacity, primarily in Asia, alongside rationalization in Europe and the USA.
- Finally, it will highlight effective strategies for decarbonizing refineries, focusing on technological advancements and process optimizations necessary for a sustainable future.
A robust refinery decarbonization strategy is not just essential; it is imperative for aligning energy demand with our climate aspirations. The time for action is now!
Co-author/s:
Gaurav Tyagi, Associate Director, OMD Consulting, S&P Global.
The global refining sector, responsible for approximately 4% of annual CO₂ emissions, faces mounting pressure to align with net-zero targets while continuing to supply essential fuels and chemical feedstocks. Conventional decarbonization strategies—such as post-combustion carbon capture and storage (CCS), fuel substitution, and process electrification—can address significant portions of Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions, but often leave residual emissions and face high capital and operational costs. Thermocatalytic decomposition (TCD) of methane offers a complementary, pre-combustion pathway that can substantially reduce the carbon intensity of hydrogen used in refinery operations.
Hydrogen is a critical utility in refining, enabling hydrocracking, hydrotreating, and desulfurization processes. Today, most refinery hydrogen is produced via steam methane reforming (SMR), which emits large volumes of CO₂. TCD replaces SMR by splitting methane into low-carbon “turquoise” hydrogen and solid carbon, without generating CO₂ in the reaction stage. This eliminates the need for downstream CO₂ capture and storage, while producing a valuable solid carbon co-product—graphite or graphene—that can displace carbon-intensive materials in steelmaking, battery production, and construction, delivering additional Scope 3 emission reductions.
Integration of TCD into refinery hydrogen networks can be achieved with minimal disruption to existing process configurations. Modular TCD units can be deployed at hydrogen production hubs, processing natural gas or refinery off-gases. Lifecycle assessments (LCA), independently verified to ISO 14067:2018 standards, indicate that TCD hydrogen can achieve carbon intensities as low as 18 g CO₂/MJ—up to 76% lower than conventional SMR hydrogen—when supplied with low-methane-intensity feed gas.
Beyond hydrogen decarbonization, TCD can contribute to broader refinery emission reduction strategies. By processing light hydrocarbons from refinery fuel gas streams, TCD reduces flaring and methane slip, while supplying hydrogen for internal use or export to adjacent industrial clusters. The solid carbon by-product can be monetized, improving project economics and offsetting the absence of CO₂ storage revenues.
In the context of net-zero refining, TCD complements other measures such as renewable electricity integration, bio-based feedstocks, and circular carbon approaches. Unlike CCS, which is most effective at large, concentrated emission points, TCD addresses emissions at the source of hydrogen production, avoiding the energy penalty of CO₂ capture. Its modularity enables phased deployment aligned with tightening regulatory frameworks, including the EU Emissions Trading System and national decarbonization mandates.
By embedding TCD into refinery hydrogen systems, operators can achieve deep Scope 1 and Scope 3 emission reductions, enhance energy efficiency, and create new revenue streams from solid carbon products. This positions TCD as a pivotal technology in the transition towards net-zero refining—bridging current fossil-based operations with a low-carbon, circular industrial future.
Hydrogen is a critical utility in refining, enabling hydrocracking, hydrotreating, and desulfurization processes. Today, most refinery hydrogen is produced via steam methane reforming (SMR), which emits large volumes of CO₂. TCD replaces SMR by splitting methane into low-carbon “turquoise” hydrogen and solid carbon, without generating CO₂ in the reaction stage. This eliminates the need for downstream CO₂ capture and storage, while producing a valuable solid carbon co-product—graphite or graphene—that can displace carbon-intensive materials in steelmaking, battery production, and construction, delivering additional Scope 3 emission reductions.
Integration of TCD into refinery hydrogen networks can be achieved with minimal disruption to existing process configurations. Modular TCD units can be deployed at hydrogen production hubs, processing natural gas or refinery off-gases. Lifecycle assessments (LCA), independently verified to ISO 14067:2018 standards, indicate that TCD hydrogen can achieve carbon intensities as low as 18 g CO₂/MJ—up to 76% lower than conventional SMR hydrogen—when supplied with low-methane-intensity feed gas.
Beyond hydrogen decarbonization, TCD can contribute to broader refinery emission reduction strategies. By processing light hydrocarbons from refinery fuel gas streams, TCD reduces flaring and methane slip, while supplying hydrogen for internal use or export to adjacent industrial clusters. The solid carbon by-product can be monetized, improving project economics and offsetting the absence of CO₂ storage revenues.
In the context of net-zero refining, TCD complements other measures such as renewable electricity integration, bio-based feedstocks, and circular carbon approaches. Unlike CCS, which is most effective at large, concentrated emission points, TCD addresses emissions at the source of hydrogen production, avoiding the energy penalty of CO₂ capture. Its modularity enables phased deployment aligned with tightening regulatory frameworks, including the EU Emissions Trading System and national decarbonization mandates.
By embedding TCD into refinery hydrogen systems, operators can achieve deep Scope 1 and Scope 3 emission reductions, enhance energy efficiency, and create new revenue streams from solid carbon products. This positions TCD as a pivotal technology in the transition towards net-zero refining—bridging current fossil-based operations with a low-carbon, circular industrial future.
The petrochemical sector presents distinct challenges for deep decarbonization modeling due to its dual reliance on energy inputs and carbon-based feedstocks. As a cornerstone of industrial output in many oil-exporting economies, its accurate representation is vital for informed policy design. However, current modeling approaches exhibit a critical gap: integrated assessment models (IAMs) often oversimplify petrochemical systems, while specialized sectoral models lack integration with broader energy dynamics. These limitations risk producing unrealistic decarbonization pathways and overlooking key policy levers.
This presentation introduces a novel implementation of the petrochemical sector within the TIMES framework, a technology-rich, bottom-up, linear programming-based energy system model. The enhanced representation includes over 40 petrochemical products and 50 industrial processes, capturing detailed system interactions such as feedstock substitution, bilateral and multilateral trade in petrochemical products, and policy instruments like tariffs. To our knowledge, no public analysis has implemented such a comprehensive and integrated approach within a full energy system model.
By explicitly tracking carbon flows, recycling loops, and process-level alternatives, the model uncovers coherent, feasible transition pathways that are typically obscured in aggregated models. We present two scenario designs, Current Policy and Carbon Neutrality by 2050, to demonstrate the model’s capacity to evaluate hydrogen-based transitions, bio-circular strategies, technology policy interventions, and cross-sector coupling.
Preliminary results show:
This enhanced TIMES implementation bridges a critical modeling gap and provides a robust platform for evaluating petrochemical decarbonization strategies within global energy system transitions.
Co-author/s:
Abdullah Aljarboua, Senior Fellow, Energy Macro & Microeconomics, KAPSARC.
Ryan Alyamani, Fellow, KAPSARC.
This presentation introduces a novel implementation of the petrochemical sector within the TIMES framework, a technology-rich, bottom-up, linear programming-based energy system model. The enhanced representation includes over 40 petrochemical products and 50 industrial processes, capturing detailed system interactions such as feedstock substitution, bilateral and multilateral trade in petrochemical products, and policy instruments like tariffs. To our knowledge, no public analysis has implemented such a comprehensive and integrated approach within a full energy system model.
By explicitly tracking carbon flows, recycling loops, and process-level alternatives, the model uncovers coherent, feasible transition pathways that are typically obscured in aggregated models. We present two scenario designs, Current Policy and Carbon Neutrality by 2050, to demonstrate the model’s capacity to evaluate hydrogen-based transitions, bio-circular strategies, technology policy interventions, and cross-sector coupling.
Preliminary results show:
- A transition away from coal and a shift from dry gas to natural gas liquids as primary feedstocks.
- A significant increase in hydrogen use in final energy consumption within the petrochemical sector.
- An endogenous CO₂ price reaching ~$300/ton by 2050 under the carbon neutrality scenario.
This enhanced TIMES implementation bridges a critical modeling gap and provides a robust platform for evaluating petrochemical decarbonization strategies within global energy system transitions.
Co-author/s:
Abdullah Aljarboua, Senior Fellow, Energy Macro & Microeconomics, KAPSARC.
Ryan Alyamani, Fellow, KAPSARC.
Petrobras, a leading company in Brazil's energy sector, has been a pioneer in biofuel production since the 1970s. The company is actively pursuing initiatives to reduce emissions, committing nearly USD 16 billion over the next five years to its energy transition, which represents 15% of its total investments.
Petrobras has also pioneered the use of diesel coprocessing technology, which involves the simultaneous processing of renewable feedstocks, such as vegetable oils and animal fats, with fossil diesel in existing hydrotreating units. This method allows for the production of diesel with a renewable content of up to 10%, offering a cost-effective and agile solution for introducing renewable diesel into the market. The company has successfully implemented this technology in several of its refineries, with a combined production capacity of 3.6 million cubic meters per year.
In addition to these technological advancements, Petrobras is focusing on expanding its research and development efforts in energy transition. The company is committed to exploring innovative solutions and forming partnerships with universities, suppliers, and international partners to enhance oil and gas exploration while minimizing environmental impact. This integrated approach positions Petrobras as a key enabler in the development of cleaner energy systems and underscores its commitment to a more sustainable future.
Another significant achievement is the production of HLR Verde (Green Refinery Light Hydrocarbons), which involves the coprocessing of ethanol in Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) units. The HLR Verde initiative is part of Petrobras' broader strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote the use of renewable feedstocks in its refining processes. The HLR Verde project has been successfully tested at the RECAP refinery, driving innovation and sustainability across the entire energy value chain.
Additionally, the Riograndense Refinery (RPR), a company with equity participation by Petrobras, Ultra, and Braskem, became the first refinery in the world to process 100% vegetable oil in an FCC unit in 2023. This initiative produces fuels and chemical feedstocks such as propylene and bio-aromatics (benzene, toluene, and xylene), leveraging proprietary technology developed by Petrobras. The innovative aspect of this development lies in the integration of bio-oil into an existing refining asset, minimizing the need for additional capital investment while enabling new pathways for energy transition and value creation within the Brazilian industrial sector. The ultimate objective is to transform the Riograndense Refinery into the world’s first facility capable of producing 100% renewable products.
These innovative approaches allow for the production of green hydrocarbons, which can be used as feedstock for the production of green plastics and other petrochemical products, highlighting Petrobras' commitment to reducing environmental impacts through the integration of renewable energy sources in its refining and petrochemical assets.
Co-author/s:
Luis Adolfo Pereira Beckstein, Coordinator, Petrobras.
Petrobras has also pioneered the use of diesel coprocessing technology, which involves the simultaneous processing of renewable feedstocks, such as vegetable oils and animal fats, with fossil diesel in existing hydrotreating units. This method allows for the production of diesel with a renewable content of up to 10%, offering a cost-effective and agile solution for introducing renewable diesel into the market. The company has successfully implemented this technology in several of its refineries, with a combined production capacity of 3.6 million cubic meters per year.
In addition to these technological advancements, Petrobras is focusing on expanding its research and development efforts in energy transition. The company is committed to exploring innovative solutions and forming partnerships with universities, suppliers, and international partners to enhance oil and gas exploration while minimizing environmental impact. This integrated approach positions Petrobras as a key enabler in the development of cleaner energy systems and underscores its commitment to a more sustainable future.
Another significant achievement is the production of HLR Verde (Green Refinery Light Hydrocarbons), which involves the coprocessing of ethanol in Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) units. The HLR Verde initiative is part of Petrobras' broader strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote the use of renewable feedstocks in its refining processes. The HLR Verde project has been successfully tested at the RECAP refinery, driving innovation and sustainability across the entire energy value chain.
Additionally, the Riograndense Refinery (RPR), a company with equity participation by Petrobras, Ultra, and Braskem, became the first refinery in the world to process 100% vegetable oil in an FCC unit in 2023. This initiative produces fuels and chemical feedstocks such as propylene and bio-aromatics (benzene, toluene, and xylene), leveraging proprietary technology developed by Petrobras. The innovative aspect of this development lies in the integration of bio-oil into an existing refining asset, minimizing the need for additional capital investment while enabling new pathways for energy transition and value creation within the Brazilian industrial sector. The ultimate objective is to transform the Riograndense Refinery into the world’s first facility capable of producing 100% renewable products.
These innovative approaches allow for the production of green hydrocarbons, which can be used as feedstock for the production of green plastics and other petrochemical products, highlighting Petrobras' commitment to reducing environmental impacts through the integration of renewable energy sources in its refining and petrochemical assets.
Co-author/s:
Luis Adolfo Pereira Beckstein, Coordinator, Petrobras.
Ivan Soucek
Chair
Director
Association of the Chemical Industry of the Czech Republic
Czech Republic
Petrobras, a leading company in Brazil's energy sector, has been a pioneer in biofuel production since the 1970s. The company is actively pursuing initiatives to reduce emissions, committing nearly USD 16 billion over the next five years to its energy transition, which represents 15% of its total investments.
Petrobras has also pioneered the use of diesel coprocessing technology, which involves the simultaneous processing of renewable feedstocks, such as vegetable oils and animal fats, with fossil diesel in existing hydrotreating units. This method allows for the production of diesel with a renewable content of up to 10%, offering a cost-effective and agile solution for introducing renewable diesel into the market. The company has successfully implemented this technology in several of its refineries, with a combined production capacity of 3.6 million cubic meters per year.
In addition to these technological advancements, Petrobras is focusing on expanding its research and development efforts in energy transition. The company is committed to exploring innovative solutions and forming partnerships with universities, suppliers, and international partners to enhance oil and gas exploration while minimizing environmental impact. This integrated approach positions Petrobras as a key enabler in the development of cleaner energy systems and underscores its commitment to a more sustainable future.
Another significant achievement is the production of HLR Verde (Green Refinery Light Hydrocarbons), which involves the coprocessing of ethanol in Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) units. The HLR Verde initiative is part of Petrobras' broader strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote the use of renewable feedstocks in its refining processes. The HLR Verde project has been successfully tested at the RECAP refinery, driving innovation and sustainability across the entire energy value chain.
Additionally, the Riograndense Refinery (RPR), a company with equity participation by Petrobras, Ultra, and Braskem, became the first refinery in the world to process 100% vegetable oil in an FCC unit in 2023. This initiative produces fuels and chemical feedstocks such as propylene and bio-aromatics (benzene, toluene, and xylene), leveraging proprietary technology developed by Petrobras. The innovative aspect of this development lies in the integration of bio-oil into an existing refining asset, minimizing the need for additional capital investment while enabling new pathways for energy transition and value creation within the Brazilian industrial sector. The ultimate objective is to transform the Riograndense Refinery into the world’s first facility capable of producing 100% renewable products.
These innovative approaches allow for the production of green hydrocarbons, which can be used as feedstock for the production of green plastics and other petrochemical products, highlighting Petrobras' commitment to reducing environmental impacts through the integration of renewable energy sources in its refining and petrochemical assets.
Co-author/s:
Luis Adolfo Pereira Beckstein, Coordinator, Petrobras.
Petrobras has also pioneered the use of diesel coprocessing technology, which involves the simultaneous processing of renewable feedstocks, such as vegetable oils and animal fats, with fossil diesel in existing hydrotreating units. This method allows for the production of diesel with a renewable content of up to 10%, offering a cost-effective and agile solution for introducing renewable diesel into the market. The company has successfully implemented this technology in several of its refineries, with a combined production capacity of 3.6 million cubic meters per year.
In addition to these technological advancements, Petrobras is focusing on expanding its research and development efforts in energy transition. The company is committed to exploring innovative solutions and forming partnerships with universities, suppliers, and international partners to enhance oil and gas exploration while minimizing environmental impact. This integrated approach positions Petrobras as a key enabler in the development of cleaner energy systems and underscores its commitment to a more sustainable future.
Another significant achievement is the production of HLR Verde (Green Refinery Light Hydrocarbons), which involves the coprocessing of ethanol in Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) units. The HLR Verde initiative is part of Petrobras' broader strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote the use of renewable feedstocks in its refining processes. The HLR Verde project has been successfully tested at the RECAP refinery, driving innovation and sustainability across the entire energy value chain.
Additionally, the Riograndense Refinery (RPR), a company with equity participation by Petrobras, Ultra, and Braskem, became the first refinery in the world to process 100% vegetable oil in an FCC unit in 2023. This initiative produces fuels and chemical feedstocks such as propylene and bio-aromatics (benzene, toluene, and xylene), leveraging proprietary technology developed by Petrobras. The innovative aspect of this development lies in the integration of bio-oil into an existing refining asset, minimizing the need for additional capital investment while enabling new pathways for energy transition and value creation within the Brazilian industrial sector. The ultimate objective is to transform the Riograndense Refinery into the world’s first facility capable of producing 100% renewable products.
These innovative approaches allow for the production of green hydrocarbons, which can be used as feedstock for the production of green plastics and other petrochemical products, highlighting Petrobras' commitment to reducing environmental impacts through the integration of renewable energy sources in its refining and petrochemical assets.
Co-author/s:
Luis Adolfo Pereira Beckstein, Coordinator, Petrobras.
The petrochemical sector presents distinct challenges for deep decarbonization modeling due to its dual reliance on energy inputs and carbon-based feedstocks. As a cornerstone of industrial output in many oil-exporting economies, its accurate representation is vital for informed policy design. However, current modeling approaches exhibit a critical gap: integrated assessment models (IAMs) often oversimplify petrochemical systems, while specialized sectoral models lack integration with broader energy dynamics. These limitations risk producing unrealistic decarbonization pathways and overlooking key policy levers.
This presentation introduces a novel implementation of the petrochemical sector within the TIMES framework, a technology-rich, bottom-up, linear programming-based energy system model. The enhanced representation includes over 40 petrochemical products and 50 industrial processes, capturing detailed system interactions such as feedstock substitution, bilateral and multilateral trade in petrochemical products, and policy instruments like tariffs. To our knowledge, no public analysis has implemented such a comprehensive and integrated approach within a full energy system model.
By explicitly tracking carbon flows, recycling loops, and process-level alternatives, the model uncovers coherent, feasible transition pathways that are typically obscured in aggregated models. We present two scenario designs, Current Policy and Carbon Neutrality by 2050, to demonstrate the model’s capacity to evaluate hydrogen-based transitions, bio-circular strategies, technology policy interventions, and cross-sector coupling.
Preliminary results show:
This enhanced TIMES implementation bridges a critical modeling gap and provides a robust platform for evaluating petrochemical decarbonization strategies within global energy system transitions.
Co-author/s:
Abdullah Aljarboua, Senior Fellow, Energy Macro & Microeconomics, KAPSARC.
Ryan Alyamani, Fellow, KAPSARC.
This presentation introduces a novel implementation of the petrochemical sector within the TIMES framework, a technology-rich, bottom-up, linear programming-based energy system model. The enhanced representation includes over 40 petrochemical products and 50 industrial processes, capturing detailed system interactions such as feedstock substitution, bilateral and multilateral trade in petrochemical products, and policy instruments like tariffs. To our knowledge, no public analysis has implemented such a comprehensive and integrated approach within a full energy system model.
By explicitly tracking carbon flows, recycling loops, and process-level alternatives, the model uncovers coherent, feasible transition pathways that are typically obscured in aggregated models. We present two scenario designs, Current Policy and Carbon Neutrality by 2050, to demonstrate the model’s capacity to evaluate hydrogen-based transitions, bio-circular strategies, technology policy interventions, and cross-sector coupling.
Preliminary results show:
- A transition away from coal and a shift from dry gas to natural gas liquids as primary feedstocks.
- A significant increase in hydrogen use in final energy consumption within the petrochemical sector.
- An endogenous CO₂ price reaching ~$300/ton by 2050 under the carbon neutrality scenario.
This enhanced TIMES implementation bridges a critical modeling gap and provides a robust platform for evaluating petrochemical decarbonization strategies within global energy system transitions.
Co-author/s:
Abdullah Aljarboua, Senior Fellow, Energy Macro & Microeconomics, KAPSARC.
Ryan Alyamani, Fellow, KAPSARC.
Efforts are underway to expand the use of low-carbon feedstocks for decarbonizing petroleum refining and petrochemical processes. To advance this efficiently, sophisticated composition control of refining streams is essential. To achieve this, hydrocarbonomics technology, which expands petroleomics to various hydrocarbons beyond petroleum, is being developed. Low-carbon feedstocks obtained from the decomposition of biomass and used plastics contain a diverse array of molecules not found in petroleum. Proper handling of these feedstocks requires analysis and optimization using hydrocarbonomics technology.
In petroleomics, ultra-high-resolution mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS) is utilized to identify millions of petroleum molecules. Furthermore, hydrocarbonomics must handle not only petroleum molecules but also heteroatom-containing compounds unique to low-carbon feedstocks, such as oxygenates and chlorinated compounds. New analytical techniques are being developed to selectively detect and identify these heteroatom-containing compounds. Simultaneously, systems are being developed to feedback molecular composition information into the preparation conditions of low-carbon feedstocks and to reflect this information in the co-processing methods of low-carbon feedstocks with petroleum fractions. By comprehensively utilizing these technologies, the decarbonization of petroleum refining and petrochemical processes can be efficiently advanced.
As an example, the overall optimization of the ARDS-RFCC process is explained. In ARDS, atmospheric residue (AR) is desulfurized through fixed-bed catalytic reactions to produce desulfurized heavy oil (DSAR), which is then cracked in the RFCC fluidized bed to produce naphtha and gasoline fractions. In ARDS, catalyst deactivation due to coke degradation is a problem. On the other hand, in RFCC, the catalyst circulates between the reactor (riser) and the regenerator, burning off the coke produced in the reaction. Therefore, catalyst deactivation is not the main concern; rather, conversion rate and selectivity are crucial. By adjusting the ARDS catalyst, the molecular composition of DSAR is precisely controlled, suppressing catalyst deactivation in ARDS while achieving high conversion rates and selectivity in RFCC.
In petroleomics, ultra-high-resolution mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS) is utilized to identify millions of petroleum molecules. Furthermore, hydrocarbonomics must handle not only petroleum molecules but also heteroatom-containing compounds unique to low-carbon feedstocks, such as oxygenates and chlorinated compounds. New analytical techniques are being developed to selectively detect and identify these heteroatom-containing compounds. Simultaneously, systems are being developed to feedback molecular composition information into the preparation conditions of low-carbon feedstocks and to reflect this information in the co-processing methods of low-carbon feedstocks with petroleum fractions. By comprehensively utilizing these technologies, the decarbonization of petroleum refining and petrochemical processes can be efficiently advanced.
As an example, the overall optimization of the ARDS-RFCC process is explained. In ARDS, atmospheric residue (AR) is desulfurized through fixed-bed catalytic reactions to produce desulfurized heavy oil (DSAR), which is then cracked in the RFCC fluidized bed to produce naphtha and gasoline fractions. In ARDS, catalyst deactivation due to coke degradation is a problem. On the other hand, in RFCC, the catalyst circulates between the reactor (riser) and the regenerator, burning off the coke produced in the reaction. Therefore, catalyst deactivation is not the main concern; rather, conversion rate and selectivity are crucial. By adjusting the ARDS catalyst, the molecular composition of DSAR is precisely controlled, suppressing catalyst deactivation in ARDS while achieving high conversion rates and selectivity in RFCC.
The global refining sector, responsible for approximately 4% of annual CO₂ emissions, faces mounting pressure to align with net-zero targets while continuing to supply essential fuels and chemical feedstocks. Conventional decarbonization strategies—such as post-combustion carbon capture and storage (CCS), fuel substitution, and process electrification—can address significant portions of Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions, but often leave residual emissions and face high capital and operational costs. Thermocatalytic decomposition (TCD) of methane offers a complementary, pre-combustion pathway that can substantially reduce the carbon intensity of hydrogen used in refinery operations.
Hydrogen is a critical utility in refining, enabling hydrocracking, hydrotreating, and desulfurization processes. Today, most refinery hydrogen is produced via steam methane reforming (SMR), which emits large volumes of CO₂. TCD replaces SMR by splitting methane into low-carbon “turquoise” hydrogen and solid carbon, without generating CO₂ in the reaction stage. This eliminates the need for downstream CO₂ capture and storage, while producing a valuable solid carbon co-product—graphite or graphene—that can displace carbon-intensive materials in steelmaking, battery production, and construction, delivering additional Scope 3 emission reductions.
Integration of TCD into refinery hydrogen networks can be achieved with minimal disruption to existing process configurations. Modular TCD units can be deployed at hydrogen production hubs, processing natural gas or refinery off-gases. Lifecycle assessments (LCA), independently verified to ISO 14067:2018 standards, indicate that TCD hydrogen can achieve carbon intensities as low as 18 g CO₂/MJ—up to 76% lower than conventional SMR hydrogen—when supplied with low-methane-intensity feed gas.
Beyond hydrogen decarbonization, TCD can contribute to broader refinery emission reduction strategies. By processing light hydrocarbons from refinery fuel gas streams, TCD reduces flaring and methane slip, while supplying hydrogen for internal use or export to adjacent industrial clusters. The solid carbon by-product can be monetized, improving project economics and offsetting the absence of CO₂ storage revenues.
In the context of net-zero refining, TCD complements other measures such as renewable electricity integration, bio-based feedstocks, and circular carbon approaches. Unlike CCS, which is most effective at large, concentrated emission points, TCD addresses emissions at the source of hydrogen production, avoiding the energy penalty of CO₂ capture. Its modularity enables phased deployment aligned with tightening regulatory frameworks, including the EU Emissions Trading System and national decarbonization mandates.
By embedding TCD into refinery hydrogen systems, operators can achieve deep Scope 1 and Scope 3 emission reductions, enhance energy efficiency, and create new revenue streams from solid carbon products. This positions TCD as a pivotal technology in the transition towards net-zero refining—bridging current fossil-based operations with a low-carbon, circular industrial future.
Hydrogen is a critical utility in refining, enabling hydrocracking, hydrotreating, and desulfurization processes. Today, most refinery hydrogen is produced via steam methane reforming (SMR), which emits large volumes of CO₂. TCD replaces SMR by splitting methane into low-carbon “turquoise” hydrogen and solid carbon, without generating CO₂ in the reaction stage. This eliminates the need for downstream CO₂ capture and storage, while producing a valuable solid carbon co-product—graphite or graphene—that can displace carbon-intensive materials in steelmaking, battery production, and construction, delivering additional Scope 3 emission reductions.
Integration of TCD into refinery hydrogen networks can be achieved with minimal disruption to existing process configurations. Modular TCD units can be deployed at hydrogen production hubs, processing natural gas or refinery off-gases. Lifecycle assessments (LCA), independently verified to ISO 14067:2018 standards, indicate that TCD hydrogen can achieve carbon intensities as low as 18 g CO₂/MJ—up to 76% lower than conventional SMR hydrogen—when supplied with low-methane-intensity feed gas.
Beyond hydrogen decarbonization, TCD can contribute to broader refinery emission reduction strategies. By processing light hydrocarbons from refinery fuel gas streams, TCD reduces flaring and methane slip, while supplying hydrogen for internal use or export to adjacent industrial clusters. The solid carbon by-product can be monetized, improving project economics and offsetting the absence of CO₂ storage revenues.
In the context of net-zero refining, TCD complements other measures such as renewable electricity integration, bio-based feedstocks, and circular carbon approaches. Unlike CCS, which is most effective at large, concentrated emission points, TCD addresses emissions at the source of hydrogen production, avoiding the energy penalty of CO₂ capture. Its modularity enables phased deployment aligned with tightening regulatory frameworks, including the EU Emissions Trading System and national decarbonization mandates.
By embedding TCD into refinery hydrogen systems, operators can achieve deep Scope 1 and Scope 3 emission reductions, enhance energy efficiency, and create new revenue streams from solid carbon products. This positions TCD as a pivotal technology in the transition towards net-zero refining—bridging current fossil-based operations with a low-carbon, circular industrial future.
