TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Primary Energy Supply – Future Pathways
Energy Supply and Demand Outlook: Navigating the Future
Forum 1 | Digital Poster Plaza 1
27
April
15:30
17:30
UTC+3
An exploration of the latest trends, challenges, and opportunities in the energy sector, including the impact of geopolitical tensions, the transition to an energy sector with lower GHG emissions, and the economic factors shaping the market. The implications of these dynamics on achieving climate goals and ensuring a sustainable energy future and topics to gain a deeper understanding of the evolving energy landscape.
Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq together represent three of the most influential oil producers in the global energy system, yet their production histories, technological trajectories, and geopolitical contexts have diverged sharply over the past century. Iran—despite its rich reserves and early start in oil production—has faced sanctions and investment constraints, while Saudi Arabia has pursued aggressive modernization and Iraq has emerged from conflict into renewed growth. This paper presents a data-rich, comparative analysis of the historical performance and future outlook of these three key producers in the context of shifting global energy dynamics. This study aims to assess Iran’s position in the global oil market through a comparative analysis with Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The objective is to uncover structural gaps, historical patterns, and future possibilities that can guide more resilient, strategic, and forward-looking oil governance for Iran. Using historical datasets from BP, OPEC, IEA, and EIA, the study reconstructs annual production and reserves data for Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq over more than a century. Key indicators such as production peaks, reserve depletion rates, and R/P ratios are analyzed alongside major political and economic disruptions. Scenario planning techniques are applied to Iran’s case using documented regional strategies (e.g., Saudi Aramco’s model, Iraqi field recovery plans) as comparative benchmarks. Policy analysis is supplemented by quantitative projections for investment gaps and production sustainability. The study also incorporates the cumulative oil extraction from the fields of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq to date, highlighting depletion rates and resource utilization efficiency. Iran’s oil sector, though challenged by sanctions and technological constraints, has demonstrated operational continuity, efficient field management, and strategic endurance. The study finds that Iran retains a large share of its recoverable reserves, signaling a high future potential if governance and investment pathways align. Compared to its peers, Iran’s resilience in maintaining output without sustained foreign capital highlights its endogenous capacity. The scenario models project a wide spectrum of outcomes, with strategic reform and green diversification offering the most promising paths. The future of Iran’s oil industry hinges not on geology, but on governance. Compared to its neighbors, Iran has a unique opportunity: it retains undepleted reserves, a skilled energy workforce, and a central geopolitical position. With strategic realignment, contract redesign, and integration into the global energy transition, Iran can reposition itself from a reactive actor to a regional leader in sustainable energy. The study provides actionable insights for policymakers and energy planners to bridge legacy structures with emerging global trends—drawing on comparative lessons from Saudi and Iraqi models to inform a distinctly Iranian path forward. Importantly, aligning national oil policy with green transition targets—such as decarbonization, energy efficiency, and investment in cleaner technologies—can enhance Iran’s long-term resilience in an increasingly climate-conscious global market.
Co-author/s:
Abbas Maleki, Professor, Sharif University of Technology.
Co-author/s:
Abbas Maleki, Professor, Sharif University of Technology.
MENA National Oil Companies (NOCs) are positioned at the intersection of the global energy transition and regional economic resilience. Leading firms such as ADNOC, Saudi Aramco, and QatarEnergy are moving beyond traditional hydrocarbon production to become diversified energy companies. They are expanding internationally to secure oil, gas, and LNG assets while increasing investment in low carbon technologies. ADNOC has increased its transition budget to 2030, reflecting a strong commitment to renewable energy and clean technology. Saudi Aramco is developing large scale carbon capture, hydrogen, and solar projects in line with its goal of achieving net zero operational emissions by 2050. QatarEnergy is expanding LNG capacity and adding renewable energy projects while targeting significant reductions in carbon intensity. Hydrocarbons remain the core of their operations, but these companies are using resource revenues to invest in renewables, hydrogen, carbon capture, and new sectors such as lithium. Their combined ability to strengthen traditional energy value while advancing decarbonization will influence both the future prosperity of the MENA region and global climate outcomes. The challenge for leadership is to guide these companies through a careful transformation that balances existing strengths with innovation for a sustainable energy future. These NOCs are also focusing on building strategic partnerships globally to leverage technology transfer and access emerging markets, enhancing their resilience amid geopolitical uncertainties. Significant investments in digitalization and operational efficiency are helping these companies reduce carbon footprints and optimize resource utilization. The shift toward integrated energy business models demonstrates MENA NOCs' commitment to sustainability while managing economic and social responsibilities. Human capital development and innovation ecosystems are prioritized to equip their workforce for future energy challenges and advance research in cleaner technologies. The transition strategies adopted by these NOCs provide a blueprint for other oil and gas producers worldwide seeking to balance economic growth with climate action. MENA NOCs leverage their significant government backing to mobilize substantial capital expenditures, enabling sustained investment in innovative technologies and large-scale infrastructure projects. Their geographic and resource advantages position them uniquely to foster regional energy integration and export low-carbon energy solutions globally. Effective governance reforms and enhanced transparency are critical enablers for these companies to attract partnerships and ensure resilient growth during the energy transition. The proactive adoption of circular economy principles and emission reduction targets further underscores their commitment to aligning with international climate frameworks. Collaboration with international financial institutions and technology providers accelerates the development and deployment of next-generation clean energy solutions. MENA NOCs are driving socioeconomic progress by creating renewable energy jobs and supporting national diversification. Their integrated sustainability approaches enhance stakeholder confidence and institutional agility amid energy sector shifts.
For decades, National Oil Companies (NOCs) in the Middle East primarily operated on behalf of their governments, generating revenues to fund national economic and develop domestic infrastructure. In recent years, however, the growing influence of sovereign wealth funds and government-driven economic diversification strategies have begun reshaping the structure as well as role of NOCs in the region. This transformation is particularly evident in the natural gas and LNG sectors by investment of these national entities in overseas projects.
This paper presents case studies of leading NOCs in the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, examining how they are expanding their global portfolios and pursuing integrated upstream and downstream strategies. Their evolution is compared with that of international energy companies (IOCs) to highlight key differences and similarities.
As these transformations progress, NOCs are becoming increasingly influential in developing new gas/LNG projects worldwide, expanding global LNG trade, and reshaping market dynamics.
The paper also draws lessons from global energy players, offering a strategic perspective on how Middle Eastern NOCs are positioning themselves for successful business expansion in gas/LNG markets and how this expansion will help them for trade optimization.
Finally, it assesses their dominance in LNG markets, their overseas investments, and the implications of their growing role in LNG trade, vs. trading houses, and legacy sellers in an evolving global gas and LNG landscape.
This paper presents case studies of leading NOCs in the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, examining how they are expanding their global portfolios and pursuing integrated upstream and downstream strategies. Their evolution is compared with that of international energy companies (IOCs) to highlight key differences and similarities.
As these transformations progress, NOCs are becoming increasingly influential in developing new gas/LNG projects worldwide, expanding global LNG trade, and reshaping market dynamics.
The paper also draws lessons from global energy players, offering a strategic perspective on how Middle Eastern NOCs are positioning themselves for successful business expansion in gas/LNG markets and how this expansion will help them for trade optimization.
Finally, it assesses their dominance in LNG markets, their overseas investments, and the implications of their growing role in LNG trade, vs. trading houses, and legacy sellers in an evolving global gas and LNG landscape.
Access to sustainable energy that is both clean and affordable has been fundamental to the global economic growth and well-being since the onset of the industrial revolution. It is imperative that we continue to prioritize the utilization of sustainable energy in the twenty-first century. The pressing global imperative to secure a sustainable and clean energy future has escalated in urgency, with the transition to a low-carbon economy emerging as a pivotal strategy to mitigate the escalating impacts of climate change. This paper explains the complex interaction between the energy transition and social justice of making a dimension that necessitates a comprehensive approach embracing social, economic, and environmental considerations. The scope of the paper encompasses the contemporary state of the energy industry, the disparities wrought by energy production on marginalized communities, and strategies tailored to foster a future where energy is clean and accessible incorporating the principles of social justice. Employing a multifaceted methodology, it posits that a robust focus on social justice is imperative for fashioning an effective energy transition that can engender a sustainable future. These challenges encompass the potential displacement of workers entrenched in traditional fossil fuel industries, as well as the uneven distribution of the costs and benefits intrinsic to clean energy solutions. This paper's exploration of the intersection between the energy transition and social justice reveals an inseparable bond that shapes the reliefs of a sustainable and equitable future.
Amid the accelerating global energy transition, hydrocarbon-based economies must maintain reliable baseload power and achieve rapid decarbonization. This study introduces a hybrid energy model that integrates Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), solar, and wind resources, coordinated by artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled smart grids. This approach is proposed as a strategic pathway to support Saudi Arabia’s Net Zero 2060 objectives.
In contrast to studies that focus exclusively on either nuclear or renewable strategies, this paper conceptualizes dual-use SMRs that provide both electricity and thermal energy. The thermal output is utilized for desalination, hydrogen production, and agricultural processes. Locating SMRs in regions such as Asir and Jazan enables the use of nuclear heat to support water-intensive crops, enhance food security, and decrease dependence on fossil-fueled desalination.
This study conducts a techno-economic analysis and evaluates Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions by comparing hybrid SMR–renewable grids with conventional gas-dependent systems. The findings demonstrate that integrating SMRs with AI-driven demand forecasting and Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled energy distribution significantly improves cost-competitiveness and reduces emissions, resulting in a resilient and adaptive energy network.
In addition to technical modeling, this paper outlines a Hybrid Energy Policy Roadmap.
The Fast-Track Phase involves expanding natural gas and renewable energy sources to achieve immediate improvements in energy supply and reductions in emissions.
The Strategic Phase focuses on deploying AI-integrated SMRs in flagship projects such as NEOM, Red Sea Development, and desalination corridors. This phase aims to establish a foundation for long-term decarbonization.
The results position Saudi Arabia as a leader in nuclear–renewable integration and as a developer of a globally scalable model for resource-rich nations balancing energy security and climate obligations. Integrating nuclear technology, renewable resources, and digital intelligence enables the Kingdom to influence the global discourse on sustainable power systems.
In contrast to studies that focus exclusively on either nuclear or renewable strategies, this paper conceptualizes dual-use SMRs that provide both electricity and thermal energy. The thermal output is utilized for desalination, hydrogen production, and agricultural processes. Locating SMRs in regions such as Asir and Jazan enables the use of nuclear heat to support water-intensive crops, enhance food security, and decrease dependence on fossil-fueled desalination.
This study conducts a techno-economic analysis and evaluates Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions by comparing hybrid SMR–renewable grids with conventional gas-dependent systems. The findings demonstrate that integrating SMRs with AI-driven demand forecasting and Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled energy distribution significantly improves cost-competitiveness and reduces emissions, resulting in a resilient and adaptive energy network.
In addition to technical modeling, this paper outlines a Hybrid Energy Policy Roadmap.
The Fast-Track Phase involves expanding natural gas and renewable energy sources to achieve immediate improvements in energy supply and reductions in emissions.
The Strategic Phase focuses on deploying AI-integrated SMRs in flagship projects such as NEOM, Red Sea Development, and desalination corridors. This phase aims to establish a foundation for long-term decarbonization.
The results position Saudi Arabia as a leader in nuclear–renewable integration and as a developer of a globally scalable model for resource-rich nations balancing energy security and climate obligations. Integrating nuclear technology, renewable resources, and digital intelligence enables the Kingdom to influence the global discourse on sustainable power systems.
The development of a sustainable hydrogen economy requires not only advances in production technologies but also the integration of storage, transportation, and end-use pathways into a coherent supply chain. While significant progress has been achieved in green hydrogen production through large-scale electrolysis powered by renewable energy, persistent challenges remain in scaling hydrogen storage and delivery systems. Current literature highlights underground hydrogen storage (UHS), ammonia, and liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHC) as the most promising solutions, yet each option entails technical, economic, and safety trade-offs.
This paper investigates the design of an integrated hydrogen supply chain with a focus on Saudi Arabia’s NEOM Green Hydrogen Project—the world’s largest planned facility for renewable hydrogen and ammonia production. Drawing on recent assessments by the International Energy Agency and the Hydrogen Council, the study reviews advances in production technologies, evaluates alternative storage and carrier options, and compares infrastructure strategies including pipeline blending and maritime ammonia transportation
The findings suggest that ammonia export represents the most feasible short-term pathway due to existing port and shipping infrastructure, while medium-term integration may rely on regional pipelines and blending strategies. In the longer term, UHS offers a scalable option for enhancing system flexibility and reducing costs. The paper concludes by outlining a staged roadmap for supply chain integration, emphasizing the role of NEOM as a model for hydrogen-exporting economies.
Keywords: Green hydrogen, Integrated supply chain, NEOM, Ammonia, UHS, LOHC, Energy transition.
This paper investigates the design of an integrated hydrogen supply chain with a focus on Saudi Arabia’s NEOM Green Hydrogen Project—the world’s largest planned facility for renewable hydrogen and ammonia production. Drawing on recent assessments by the International Energy Agency and the Hydrogen Council, the study reviews advances in production technologies, evaluates alternative storage and carrier options, and compares infrastructure strategies including pipeline blending and maritime ammonia transportation
The findings suggest that ammonia export represents the most feasible short-term pathway due to existing port and shipping infrastructure, while medium-term integration may rely on regional pipelines and blending strategies. In the longer term, UHS offers a scalable option for enhancing system flexibility and reducing costs. The paper concludes by outlining a staged roadmap for supply chain integration, emphasizing the role of NEOM as a model for hydrogen-exporting economies.
Keywords: Green hydrogen, Integrated supply chain, NEOM, Ammonia, UHS, LOHC, Energy transition.
Against the backdrop of escalating global climate change and surging energy prices, energy transition has emerged as a core solution to mitigate climate crises and a pivotal driver for economic recovery in the post-pandemic era. As the world’s largest developing nation, China assumes a critical role in shaping the global energy transition, progressively evolving into a cornerstone of this transformative process. This paper contextualizes the global energy transition by first examining current patterns of energy consumption and carbon emissions, synthesizing overarching trends in global energy development, and reviewing policy initiatives adopted by nations worldwide. By integrating considerations of climate action, environmental stewardship, economic growth, and energy security enhancement, the study underscores the imperative of transitioning to sustainable energy systems.
The analysis further delineates China’s multifaceted contributions to global energy transition, highlighting its role in fostering renewable integration, technological innovation, and international cooperation. A case study of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)’s offshore wind power projects is employed to illustrate the practical implementation of energy transition within China’s petroleum sector, showcasing strategies for diversifying into low-carbon energy sources while leveraging existing industrial capabilities. The research proceeds to identify key challenges impeding global energy transition, including technical bottlenecks, regulatory complexities, and socio-economic disparities.
Drawing on empirical insights, the paper proposes a policy framework for China’s future development, emphasizing accelerated decarbonization of traditional energy sectors, increased investment in green technologies, and strengthened international partnerships. These recommendations aim to balance economic competitiveness with environmental sustainability, aligning with global efforts to achieve net-zero targets. By bridging macro-level trends with micro-level case analysis, this study offers actionable insights for China and analogous developing countries, facilitating informed decision-making in navigating the complex landscape of energy transition. The findings contribute to academic discourse on sustainable development, underscoring the necessity of inclusive, resilient, and technology-driven pathways for global energy systems.
Key words: Energy transition; China's role; Low-carbon development; Policy initiatives
The analysis further delineates China’s multifaceted contributions to global energy transition, highlighting its role in fostering renewable integration, technological innovation, and international cooperation. A case study of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)’s offshore wind power projects is employed to illustrate the practical implementation of energy transition within China’s petroleum sector, showcasing strategies for diversifying into low-carbon energy sources while leveraging existing industrial capabilities. The research proceeds to identify key challenges impeding global energy transition, including technical bottlenecks, regulatory complexities, and socio-economic disparities.
Drawing on empirical insights, the paper proposes a policy framework for China’s future development, emphasizing accelerated decarbonization of traditional energy sectors, increased investment in green technologies, and strengthened international partnerships. These recommendations aim to balance economic competitiveness with environmental sustainability, aligning with global efforts to achieve net-zero targets. By bridging macro-level trends with micro-level case analysis, this study offers actionable insights for China and analogous developing countries, facilitating informed decision-making in navigating the complex landscape of energy transition. The findings contribute to academic discourse on sustainable development, underscoring the necessity of inclusive, resilient, and technology-driven pathways for global energy systems.
Key words: Energy transition; China's role; Low-carbon development; Policy initiatives
Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude oil producer with reserves exceeding 37 billion barrels, has historically depended on petroleum revenues to drive economic growth. However, the twin pressures of global decarbonization and domestic energy security challenges have intensified the call for an energy transformation that balances petroleum with renewables. This paper presents a structured pathway for Nigeria’s transition in line with the World Petroleum Congress theme “Shaping the Future Global Energy.” The analysis examines three dimensions of the transition: (i) optimizing petroleum resources through cleaner technologies and gas as a transition fuel, (ii) scaling renewable energy deployment—particularly solar, hydro, and wind—into the national energy mix, and (iii) strengthening institutional, policy, and financing mechanisms. Drawing from Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP) and global best practices, the paper argues for a dual-value strategy: maximizing the economic benefits of hydrocarbons while accelerating the shift to renewables. It concludes with recommendations on policy innovation, investment mobilization, and regional cooperation to ensure Nigeria’s transformation contributes meaningfully to global climate goals and secures a just, inclusive, and resilient energy future. Keywords: Energy Transition, Renewable Energy, Petroleum Optimization, Energy Policy, Nigeria
Siamak Adibi
Speaker
Director, Global LNG Supply Analytics, and Head of ME Gas Research
FGE
For decades, National Oil Companies (NOCs) in the Middle East primarily operated on behalf of their governments, generating revenues to fund national economic and develop domestic infrastructure. In recent years, however, the growing influence of sovereign wealth funds and government-driven economic diversification strategies have begun reshaping the structure as well as role of NOCs in the region. This transformation is particularly evident in the natural gas and LNG sectors by investment of these national entities in overseas projects.
This paper presents case studies of leading NOCs in the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, examining how they are expanding their global portfolios and pursuing integrated upstream and downstream strategies. Their evolution is compared with that of international energy companies (IOCs) to highlight key differences and similarities.
As these transformations progress, NOCs are becoming increasingly influential in developing new gas/LNG projects worldwide, expanding global LNG trade, and reshaping market dynamics.
The paper also draws lessons from global energy players, offering a strategic perspective on how Middle Eastern NOCs are positioning themselves for successful business expansion in gas/LNG markets and how this expansion will help them for trade optimization.
Finally, it assesses their dominance in LNG markets, their overseas investments, and the implications of their growing role in LNG trade, vs. trading houses, and legacy sellers in an evolving global gas and LNG landscape.
This paper presents case studies of leading NOCs in the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, examining how they are expanding their global portfolios and pursuing integrated upstream and downstream strategies. Their evolution is compared with that of international energy companies (IOCs) to highlight key differences and similarities.
As these transformations progress, NOCs are becoming increasingly influential in developing new gas/LNG projects worldwide, expanding global LNG trade, and reshaping market dynamics.
The paper also draws lessons from global energy players, offering a strategic perspective on how Middle Eastern NOCs are positioning themselves for successful business expansion in gas/LNG markets and how this expansion will help them for trade optimization.
Finally, it assesses their dominance in LNG markets, their overseas investments, and the implications of their growing role in LNG trade, vs. trading houses, and legacy sellers in an evolving global gas and LNG landscape.
The development of a sustainable hydrogen economy requires not only advances in production technologies but also the integration of storage, transportation, and end-use pathways into a coherent supply chain. While significant progress has been achieved in green hydrogen production through large-scale electrolysis powered by renewable energy, persistent challenges remain in scaling hydrogen storage and delivery systems. Current literature highlights underground hydrogen storage (UHS), ammonia, and liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHC) as the most promising solutions, yet each option entails technical, economic, and safety trade-offs.
This paper investigates the design of an integrated hydrogen supply chain with a focus on Saudi Arabia’s NEOM Green Hydrogen Project—the world’s largest planned facility for renewable hydrogen and ammonia production. Drawing on recent assessments by the International Energy Agency and the Hydrogen Council, the study reviews advances in production technologies, evaluates alternative storage and carrier options, and compares infrastructure strategies including pipeline blending and maritime ammonia transportation
The findings suggest that ammonia export represents the most feasible short-term pathway due to existing port and shipping infrastructure, while medium-term integration may rely on regional pipelines and blending strategies. In the longer term, UHS offers a scalable option for enhancing system flexibility and reducing costs. The paper concludes by outlining a staged roadmap for supply chain integration, emphasizing the role of NEOM as a model for hydrogen-exporting economies.
Keywords: Green hydrogen, Integrated supply chain, NEOM, Ammonia, UHS, LOHC, Energy transition.
This paper investigates the design of an integrated hydrogen supply chain with a focus on Saudi Arabia’s NEOM Green Hydrogen Project—the world’s largest planned facility for renewable hydrogen and ammonia production. Drawing on recent assessments by the International Energy Agency and the Hydrogen Council, the study reviews advances in production technologies, evaluates alternative storage and carrier options, and compares infrastructure strategies including pipeline blending and maritime ammonia transportation
The findings suggest that ammonia export represents the most feasible short-term pathway due to existing port and shipping infrastructure, while medium-term integration may rely on regional pipelines and blending strategies. In the longer term, UHS offers a scalable option for enhancing system flexibility and reducing costs. The paper concludes by outlining a staged roadmap for supply chain integration, emphasizing the role of NEOM as a model for hydrogen-exporting economies.
Keywords: Green hydrogen, Integrated supply chain, NEOM, Ammonia, UHS, LOHC, Energy transition.
Amid the accelerating global energy transition, hydrocarbon-based economies must maintain reliable baseload power and achieve rapid decarbonization. This study introduces a hybrid energy model that integrates Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), solar, and wind resources, coordinated by artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled smart grids. This approach is proposed as a strategic pathway to support Saudi Arabia’s Net Zero 2060 objectives.
In contrast to studies that focus exclusively on either nuclear or renewable strategies, this paper conceptualizes dual-use SMRs that provide both electricity and thermal energy. The thermal output is utilized for desalination, hydrogen production, and agricultural processes. Locating SMRs in regions such as Asir and Jazan enables the use of nuclear heat to support water-intensive crops, enhance food security, and decrease dependence on fossil-fueled desalination.
This study conducts a techno-economic analysis and evaluates Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions by comparing hybrid SMR–renewable grids with conventional gas-dependent systems. The findings demonstrate that integrating SMRs with AI-driven demand forecasting and Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled energy distribution significantly improves cost-competitiveness and reduces emissions, resulting in a resilient and adaptive energy network.
In addition to technical modeling, this paper outlines a Hybrid Energy Policy Roadmap.
The Fast-Track Phase involves expanding natural gas and renewable energy sources to achieve immediate improvements in energy supply and reductions in emissions.
The Strategic Phase focuses on deploying AI-integrated SMRs in flagship projects such as NEOM, Red Sea Development, and desalination corridors. This phase aims to establish a foundation for long-term decarbonization.
The results position Saudi Arabia as a leader in nuclear–renewable integration and as a developer of a globally scalable model for resource-rich nations balancing energy security and climate obligations. Integrating nuclear technology, renewable resources, and digital intelligence enables the Kingdom to influence the global discourse on sustainable power systems.
In contrast to studies that focus exclusively on either nuclear or renewable strategies, this paper conceptualizes dual-use SMRs that provide both electricity and thermal energy. The thermal output is utilized for desalination, hydrogen production, and agricultural processes. Locating SMRs in regions such as Asir and Jazan enables the use of nuclear heat to support water-intensive crops, enhance food security, and decrease dependence on fossil-fueled desalination.
This study conducts a techno-economic analysis and evaluates Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions by comparing hybrid SMR–renewable grids with conventional gas-dependent systems. The findings demonstrate that integrating SMRs with AI-driven demand forecasting and Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled energy distribution significantly improves cost-competitiveness and reduces emissions, resulting in a resilient and adaptive energy network.
In addition to technical modeling, this paper outlines a Hybrid Energy Policy Roadmap.
The Fast-Track Phase involves expanding natural gas and renewable energy sources to achieve immediate improvements in energy supply and reductions in emissions.
The Strategic Phase focuses on deploying AI-integrated SMRs in flagship projects such as NEOM, Red Sea Development, and desalination corridors. This phase aims to establish a foundation for long-term decarbonization.
The results position Saudi Arabia as a leader in nuclear–renewable integration and as a developer of a globally scalable model for resource-rich nations balancing energy security and climate obligations. Integrating nuclear technology, renewable resources, and digital intelligence enables the Kingdom to influence the global discourse on sustainable power systems.
Access to sustainable energy that is both clean and affordable has been fundamental to the global economic growth and well-being since the onset of the industrial revolution. It is imperative that we continue to prioritize the utilization of sustainable energy in the twenty-first century. The pressing global imperative to secure a sustainable and clean energy future has escalated in urgency, with the transition to a low-carbon economy emerging as a pivotal strategy to mitigate the escalating impacts of climate change. This paper explains the complex interaction between the energy transition and social justice of making a dimension that necessitates a comprehensive approach embracing social, economic, and environmental considerations. The scope of the paper encompasses the contemporary state of the energy industry, the disparities wrought by energy production on marginalized communities, and strategies tailored to foster a future where energy is clean and accessible incorporating the principles of social justice. Employing a multifaceted methodology, it posits that a robust focus on social justice is imperative for fashioning an effective energy transition that can engender a sustainable future. These challenges encompass the potential displacement of workers entrenched in traditional fossil fuel industries, as well as the uneven distribution of the costs and benefits intrinsic to clean energy solutions. This paper's exploration of the intersection between the energy transition and social justice reveals an inseparable bond that shapes the reliefs of a sustainable and equitable future.
Against the backdrop of escalating global climate change and surging energy prices, energy transition has emerged as a core solution to mitigate climate crises and a pivotal driver for economic recovery in the post-pandemic era. As the world’s largest developing nation, China assumes a critical role in shaping the global energy transition, progressively evolving into a cornerstone of this transformative process. This paper contextualizes the global energy transition by first examining current patterns of energy consumption and carbon emissions, synthesizing overarching trends in global energy development, and reviewing policy initiatives adopted by nations worldwide. By integrating considerations of climate action, environmental stewardship, economic growth, and energy security enhancement, the study underscores the imperative of transitioning to sustainable energy systems.
The analysis further delineates China’s multifaceted contributions to global energy transition, highlighting its role in fostering renewable integration, technological innovation, and international cooperation. A case study of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)’s offshore wind power projects is employed to illustrate the practical implementation of energy transition within China’s petroleum sector, showcasing strategies for diversifying into low-carbon energy sources while leveraging existing industrial capabilities. The research proceeds to identify key challenges impeding global energy transition, including technical bottlenecks, regulatory complexities, and socio-economic disparities.
Drawing on empirical insights, the paper proposes a policy framework for China’s future development, emphasizing accelerated decarbonization of traditional energy sectors, increased investment in green technologies, and strengthened international partnerships. These recommendations aim to balance economic competitiveness with environmental sustainability, aligning with global efforts to achieve net-zero targets. By bridging macro-level trends with micro-level case analysis, this study offers actionable insights for China and analogous developing countries, facilitating informed decision-making in navigating the complex landscape of energy transition. The findings contribute to academic discourse on sustainable development, underscoring the necessity of inclusive, resilient, and technology-driven pathways for global energy systems.
Key words: Energy transition; China's role; Low-carbon development; Policy initiatives
The analysis further delineates China’s multifaceted contributions to global energy transition, highlighting its role in fostering renewable integration, technological innovation, and international cooperation. A case study of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)’s offshore wind power projects is employed to illustrate the practical implementation of energy transition within China’s petroleum sector, showcasing strategies for diversifying into low-carbon energy sources while leveraging existing industrial capabilities. The research proceeds to identify key challenges impeding global energy transition, including technical bottlenecks, regulatory complexities, and socio-economic disparities.
Drawing on empirical insights, the paper proposes a policy framework for China’s future development, emphasizing accelerated decarbonization of traditional energy sectors, increased investment in green technologies, and strengthened international partnerships. These recommendations aim to balance economic competitiveness with environmental sustainability, aligning with global efforts to achieve net-zero targets. By bridging macro-level trends with micro-level case analysis, this study offers actionable insights for China and analogous developing countries, facilitating informed decision-making in navigating the complex landscape of energy transition. The findings contribute to academic discourse on sustainable development, underscoring the necessity of inclusive, resilient, and technology-driven pathways for global energy systems.
Key words: Energy transition; China's role; Low-carbon development; Policy initiatives
Amirhossein Ghasemi
Speaker
Energy Policy and Geopolitics Researcher
Sharif University of Technology
Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq together represent three of the most influential oil producers in the global energy system, yet their production histories, technological trajectories, and geopolitical contexts have diverged sharply over the past century. Iran—despite its rich reserves and early start in oil production—has faced sanctions and investment constraints, while Saudi Arabia has pursued aggressive modernization and Iraq has emerged from conflict into renewed growth. This paper presents a data-rich, comparative analysis of the historical performance and future outlook of these three key producers in the context of shifting global energy dynamics. This study aims to assess Iran’s position in the global oil market through a comparative analysis with Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The objective is to uncover structural gaps, historical patterns, and future possibilities that can guide more resilient, strategic, and forward-looking oil governance for Iran. Using historical datasets from BP, OPEC, IEA, and EIA, the study reconstructs annual production and reserves data for Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq over more than a century. Key indicators such as production peaks, reserve depletion rates, and R/P ratios are analyzed alongside major political and economic disruptions. Scenario planning techniques are applied to Iran’s case using documented regional strategies (e.g., Saudi Aramco’s model, Iraqi field recovery plans) as comparative benchmarks. Policy analysis is supplemented by quantitative projections for investment gaps and production sustainability. The study also incorporates the cumulative oil extraction from the fields of Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq to date, highlighting depletion rates and resource utilization efficiency. Iran’s oil sector, though challenged by sanctions and technological constraints, has demonstrated operational continuity, efficient field management, and strategic endurance. The study finds that Iran retains a large share of its recoverable reserves, signaling a high future potential if governance and investment pathways align. Compared to its peers, Iran’s resilience in maintaining output without sustained foreign capital highlights its endogenous capacity. The scenario models project a wide spectrum of outcomes, with strategic reform and green diversification offering the most promising paths. The future of Iran’s oil industry hinges not on geology, but on governance. Compared to its neighbors, Iran has a unique opportunity: it retains undepleted reserves, a skilled energy workforce, and a central geopolitical position. With strategic realignment, contract redesign, and integration into the global energy transition, Iran can reposition itself from a reactive actor to a regional leader in sustainable energy. The study provides actionable insights for policymakers and energy planners to bridge legacy structures with emerging global trends—drawing on comparative lessons from Saudi and Iraqi models to inform a distinctly Iranian path forward. Importantly, aligning national oil policy with green transition targets—such as decarbonization, energy efficiency, and investment in cleaner technologies—can enhance Iran’s long-term resilience in an increasingly climate-conscious global market.
Co-author/s:
Abbas Maleki, Professor, Sharif University of Technology.
Co-author/s:
Abbas Maleki, Professor, Sharif University of Technology.
MENA National Oil Companies (NOCs) are positioned at the intersection of the global energy transition and regional economic resilience. Leading firms such as ADNOC, Saudi Aramco, and QatarEnergy are moving beyond traditional hydrocarbon production to become diversified energy companies. They are expanding internationally to secure oil, gas, and LNG assets while increasing investment in low carbon technologies. ADNOC has increased its transition budget to 2030, reflecting a strong commitment to renewable energy and clean technology. Saudi Aramco is developing large scale carbon capture, hydrogen, and solar projects in line with its goal of achieving net zero operational emissions by 2050. QatarEnergy is expanding LNG capacity and adding renewable energy projects while targeting significant reductions in carbon intensity. Hydrocarbons remain the core of their operations, but these companies are using resource revenues to invest in renewables, hydrogen, carbon capture, and new sectors such as lithium. Their combined ability to strengthen traditional energy value while advancing decarbonization will influence both the future prosperity of the MENA region and global climate outcomes. The challenge for leadership is to guide these companies through a careful transformation that balances existing strengths with innovation for a sustainable energy future. These NOCs are also focusing on building strategic partnerships globally to leverage technology transfer and access emerging markets, enhancing their resilience amid geopolitical uncertainties. Significant investments in digitalization and operational efficiency are helping these companies reduce carbon footprints and optimize resource utilization. The shift toward integrated energy business models demonstrates MENA NOCs' commitment to sustainability while managing economic and social responsibilities. Human capital development and innovation ecosystems are prioritized to equip their workforce for future energy challenges and advance research in cleaner technologies. The transition strategies adopted by these NOCs provide a blueprint for other oil and gas producers worldwide seeking to balance economic growth with climate action. MENA NOCs leverage their significant government backing to mobilize substantial capital expenditures, enabling sustained investment in innovative technologies and large-scale infrastructure projects. Their geographic and resource advantages position them uniquely to foster regional energy integration and export low-carbon energy solutions globally. Effective governance reforms and enhanced transparency are critical enablers for these companies to attract partnerships and ensure resilient growth during the energy transition. The proactive adoption of circular economy principles and emission reduction targets further underscores their commitment to aligning with international climate frameworks. Collaboration with international financial institutions and technology providers accelerates the development and deployment of next-generation clean energy solutions. MENA NOCs are driving socioeconomic progress by creating renewable energy jobs and supporting national diversification. Their integrated sustainability approaches enhance stakeholder confidence and institutional agility amid energy sector shifts.
Ismaila Haliru Zarma
Speaker
Secretary General
World Energy Council - Nigeria National Committee
Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude oil producer with reserves exceeding 37 billion barrels, has historically depended on petroleum revenues to drive economic growth. However, the twin pressures of global decarbonization and domestic energy security challenges have intensified the call for an energy transformation that balances petroleum with renewables. This paper presents a structured pathway for Nigeria’s transition in line with the World Petroleum Congress theme “Shaping the Future Global Energy.” The analysis examines three dimensions of the transition: (i) optimizing petroleum resources through cleaner technologies and gas as a transition fuel, (ii) scaling renewable energy deployment—particularly solar, hydro, and wind—into the national energy mix, and (iii) strengthening institutional, policy, and financing mechanisms. Drawing from Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP) and global best practices, the paper argues for a dual-value strategy: maximizing the economic benefits of hydrocarbons while accelerating the shift to renewables. It concludes with recommendations on policy innovation, investment mobilization, and regional cooperation to ensure Nigeria’s transformation contributes meaningfully to global climate goals and secures a just, inclusive, and resilient energy future. Keywords: Energy Transition, Renewable Energy, Petroleum Optimization, Energy Policy, Nigeria
