TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Energy Leadership – Future Pathways
Public Policy (Global and Local) - Climate Change, Transition Management, Supply Security and Energy Affordability
Forum 26 | Technical Programme Hall 5
27
April
15:00
16:30
UTC+3
The energy trilemma – the balance of energy sustainability, energy affordability, and energy security – is a challenge facing policy makers across the globe at both the national and local levels. The challenge is rooted in a reality that shifting any of these elements require difficult trade-offs in the others. This challenge is compounded by the fact that the impact of these decisions are not evenly distributed for stakeholders in a local community, nation, or planet, and the stakeholders have varying degrees of understanding of the issues. Providing leadership in these situations is difficult, and this session will explore case studies of what has worked or not worked and what skills and knowledge policy makers need to be effective in these situations.
Policymakers often set broad and lofty goals for achieving clean energy transition, but the macroscopic nature of these goals often makes it difficult to translate them into implementation. Due to the lengthy time horizons involved and technological uncertainty, decarbonisation targets tend to be primarily aspirational, with few concrete details on what actions will be taken. This paper attempts to reconcile long-term energy system planning with technical factors to identify the highest impact areas for regulatory support of technological innovation and project financing and achieve energy system decarbonisation. It does so through four stages of analysis. Firstly, the engineering constraints on improving the efficiency of two dominant sources of renewable energy - wind and solar - are explicated, noting the role of complementarity in minimising fossil fuel dependence. Secondly, a Sobol sensitivity analysis is performed on an hourly model of Great Britain's (GB) 2050 energy system, determining in what domains dramatic technological progress is necessary for decarbonisation by varying rates of technological change and adoption rates across supply, demand, and flexibility inputs using a quasi-random sampling method. Thirdly, Great Britain is compared to the Chinese energy system, highlighting the key structural differences like market liquidity, demand profiles and heavy reliance on Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), thereby evaluating what an efficient and effective low-carbon energy system would look like for China in 2050. Fourthly, policy recommendations are formulated based on the two cases and extrapolated into general conclusions for energy policymakers, which speak to the value of carbon capture, nuclear power, and power system flexibility.
Libya’s National Energy Strategy (LNES) launches a transformative roadmap to ensure a smooth transition of the country’s energy sector toward sustainability, affordability, and energy security. As a resource-rich, post-conflict nation with high energy and carbon intensity (1.82 kWh per USD of GDP and ~831 g CO₂ per kWh), Libya seeks an adequate strategic shift through economic modeling, policy reform, and infrastructure modernization. The NES employs a Net Benefit framework built on the novel Net Energy Revenue Equation. This equation integrates key components such as the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC), and emissions modules to evaluate the expected transition scenarios, including Business-as-Usual, Gas-Substitution, and Accelerated Renewable Energy Deployment. The focused scenarios prioritize as first objective in replacing liquid fuels with natural gas, accelerating renewable deployment, and improving efficiency across end-use sectors.
Fuel subsidy reform is a critical mechanism for achieving this transition. In 2024, the national energy budget reached $17 billion, with approximately $8 billion allocated to subsidies. Redirecting these funds to clean energy investments could yield $5.8 billion in net energy benefits by 2030 and reduce CO₂ emissions by over 5.5 million tons annually. The LNES targets approximately 30% renewable electricity by 2037 and aims to approach as close as possible to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century, supported by phased implementation and inclusive governance.
The National Oil Corporation will pilot the conversion of the Tibisti oil field to operate exclusively on renewable energy. This initiative will eliminate liquid fuel use in power generation and achieve zero flaring through an associated gas utilization project. On the other hand, solar energy units will be installed on selected homes, public facilities, and commercial buildings as Demo-Sites for decentralized energy solutions.
These efforts are intended to encourage policy-makers to establish legislative frameworks that support this ambitious transition. They also complement broader national measures such as wind and solar projects, and energy efficiency programs. A key objective is to reduce electricity consumption by up to 20% and cut CO₂ emissions by approximately 300,000 tons annually.
Aligned with global frameworks including the Paris Agreement (COP21, the UN Climate Change Conference held in 2015), UN Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all), and the African Union’s Agenda 2063, the NES positions Libya as an emerging energy hub in North Africa. Within this frame, this paper highlights the LNES as an innovative, replicable model for resource-rich, post-conflict economies seeking to balance economic development with climate change commitments, offering actionable lessons for accelerating practical pathways toward a secure, low-carbon energy future.
Fuel subsidy reform is a critical mechanism for achieving this transition. In 2024, the national energy budget reached $17 billion, with approximately $8 billion allocated to subsidies. Redirecting these funds to clean energy investments could yield $5.8 billion in net energy benefits by 2030 and reduce CO₂ emissions by over 5.5 million tons annually. The LNES targets approximately 30% renewable electricity by 2037 and aims to approach as close as possible to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century, supported by phased implementation and inclusive governance.
The National Oil Corporation will pilot the conversion of the Tibisti oil field to operate exclusively on renewable energy. This initiative will eliminate liquid fuel use in power generation and achieve zero flaring through an associated gas utilization project. On the other hand, solar energy units will be installed on selected homes, public facilities, and commercial buildings as Demo-Sites for decentralized energy solutions.
These efforts are intended to encourage policy-makers to establish legislative frameworks that support this ambitious transition. They also complement broader national measures such as wind and solar projects, and energy efficiency programs. A key objective is to reduce electricity consumption by up to 20% and cut CO₂ emissions by approximately 300,000 tons annually.
Aligned with global frameworks including the Paris Agreement (COP21, the UN Climate Change Conference held in 2015), UN Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all), and the African Union’s Agenda 2063, the NES positions Libya as an emerging energy hub in North Africa. Within this frame, this paper highlights the LNES as an innovative, replicable model for resource-rich, post-conflict economies seeking to balance economic development with climate change commitments, offering actionable lessons for accelerating practical pathways toward a secure, low-carbon energy future.
Trade and climate policy—two critical arenas of global governance—are increasingly shaping the trajectory of energy transitions and competitiveness. As major economies implement carbon tariffs, subsidies, and green industrial policies, the risks of fragmentation and inequity grow, particularly for vulnerable economies. At the same time, trade offers opportunities to accelerate decarbonization by expanding markets for clean technologies and rewarding low-carbon production. This paper addresses the emerging concept of carbon competitiveness, defined as the capacity of nations to reduce emissions while maintaining trade and economic strength.
The research develops an integrated framework combining three novel tools. First, a Carbon Competitiveness Index (CCI) measures how countries balance emissions reductions with competitiveness, incorporating factors such as carbon intensity, leakage risk, innovation capacity, and institutional readiness. Second, long-term scenarios to 2050—developed through GTAP-E and integrated assessment modeling—map alternative futures of cooperation and fragmentation across trade and climate regimes. Third, governance blueprints translate these insights into actionable pathways, including climate clubs, carbon markets for emerging economies, and reforms of sustainability impact assessments.
Case studies, including work on steel sector decarbonization and the design of a Saudi Emissions Trading System, demonstrate how the CCI and scenarios apply in practice. These examples reveal which producers adapt successfully, how trade measures reshape competitiveness, and how Global South exporters may be affected. Beyond diagnostics, the project introduces a deliberative forum approach, bringing together negotiators, policymakers, and business leaders in structured dialogue to bridge technical analysis with political feasibility.
The paper contributes to global debates on energy, trade, and climate change by:
By reframing trade not as an obstacle but as an engine for equitable decarbonization, this work provides pragmatic pathways for balancing climate ambition with competitiveness. It speaks directly to the WPC theme Pathways to an Energy Future for All, offering insights for policymakers, industry, and scholars navigating the evolving trade–climate–energy nexus.
The research develops an integrated framework combining three novel tools. First, a Carbon Competitiveness Index (CCI) measures how countries balance emissions reductions with competitiveness, incorporating factors such as carbon intensity, leakage risk, innovation capacity, and institutional readiness. Second, long-term scenarios to 2050—developed through GTAP-E and integrated assessment modeling—map alternative futures of cooperation and fragmentation across trade and climate regimes. Third, governance blueprints translate these insights into actionable pathways, including climate clubs, carbon markets for emerging economies, and reforms of sustainability impact assessments.
Case studies, including work on steel sector decarbonization and the design of a Saudi Emissions Trading System, demonstrate how the CCI and scenarios apply in practice. These examples reveal which producers adapt successfully, how trade measures reshape competitiveness, and how Global South exporters may be affected. Beyond diagnostics, the project introduces a deliberative forum approach, bringing together negotiators, policymakers, and business leaders in structured dialogue to bridge technical analysis with political feasibility.
The paper contributes to global debates on energy, trade, and climate change by:
- Advancing new metrics to capture carbon competitiveness.
- Offering foresight tools for turbulent futures.
- Designing governance innovations that link trade, climate, and equity.
By reframing trade not as an obstacle but as an engine for equitable decarbonization, this work provides pragmatic pathways for balancing climate ambition with competitiveness. It speaks directly to the WPC theme Pathways to an Energy Future for All, offering insights for policymakers, industry, and scholars navigating the evolving trade–climate–energy nexus.
Kira Negron (CEO, GLTRCORE; President, Saudi Business Council) presents a policy‑driven framework to align strategic sovereign and institutional capital with host‑country policy instruments and local innovation ecosystems to accelerate scalable, affordable and socially inclusive clean‑energy deployment worldwide.
The submission argues that credible transition pathways require three integrated pillars:
The paper defines practical policy levers and accountability metrics to embed in financing agreements and regulatory approvals: jobs per $100m invested, localisation percentage, training‑to‑employment conversion rate, and GHG abated per $ invested. It synthesises lessons from multi‑jurisdictional pilots and public‑private initiatives to show how these levers accelerate project delivery, de‑risk investment, and produce measurable socio‑economic outcomes.
The presentation offers a pragmatic roadmap for policymakers and investors:
By integrating capital, policy and people, the proposed framework ensures that energy transition investments strengthen supply security, maintain affordability and generate shared prosperity. This approach positions host nations—particularly the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as attractive, reliable partners for global investors seeking impact‑oriented, scalable energy projects that deliver both decarbonisation and socio‑economic value.
The submission argues that credible transition pathways require three integrated pillars:
- Strategic capital mobilisation blended‑finance vehicles and investment compacts that tie concessional tranches to measurable localisation and job‑creation KPIs;
- Adaptive public policy — modular public‑private partnership (PPP) and procurement models that enable phased technical transfer while safeguarding supply security and affordability; and
- Human‑capital integration — accredited reskilling, apprenticeship and certified on‑the‑job pipelines co‑designed by government, investors and education providers to prioritise youth and women’s employment.
The paper defines practical policy levers and accountability metrics to embed in financing agreements and regulatory approvals: jobs per $100m invested, localisation percentage, training‑to‑employment conversion rate, and GHG abated per $ invested. It synthesises lessons from multi‑jurisdictional pilots and public‑private initiatives to show how these levers accelerate project delivery, de‑risk investment, and produce measurable socio‑economic outcomes.
The presentation offers a pragmatic roadmap for policymakers and investors:
- Establish joint investment‑policy compacts that align capital flows with local development outcomes and regulatory certainty;
- Mandate human‑capital KPIs and localisation targets within financing structures to ensure durable employment and skills transfer; and
- Create a multi‑stakeholder Energy Leadership Forum to disseminate best practices, standardise outcome metrics, and scale replicable models across regions.
By integrating capital, policy and people, the proposed framework ensures that energy transition investments strengthen supply security, maintain affordability and generate shared prosperity. This approach positions host nations—particularly the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as attractive, reliable partners for global investors seeking impact‑oriented, scalable energy projects that deliver both decarbonisation and socio‑economic value.
This paper presents the evolution of biofuels in Brazil and the ongoing efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the oil and gas sector, through the introduction of lower-carbon fossil fuels and fossil-based products made via co-processing with renewable content. In addition, it provides an assessment of key national public policies, with a particular focus on the “Future Fuel Law,” approved in October 2024, highlighting its advancements and opportunities for improvement in support of a just energy transition.
Brazil has nearly a century of experience in biofuel production, which began in the 1930s with the blending of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline. Today, it is the world's second-largest producer of biofuels, with significant output of ethanol and biodiesel. Gasoline sold in Brazil contains 27% ethanol, and diesel is blended with 14% biodiesel. Over 70% of the country’s cars are equipped with flex-fuel engines, allowing the use of any ethanol-gasoline blend.
In addition to large-scale biofuel production, the Brazilian market currently offers Diesel produced via co-processing with 5% renewable content, carbon-neutral gasoline (with lifecycle GHG emissions offset by carbon credits), bunker fuel with 24% renewable content, and asphalt made from recycled material with lower energy consumption during application. Refineries are also testing SAF production via co-processing (with 1.2% vegetable oil), fuels with 5% bio-oil, and petrochemical products with renewable input, such as Light Refinery Hydrocarbons (LRH), from co-processing fossil streams with sugarcane ethanol.
The Fuel of the Future Law opens new opportunities to scale up biofuel production and use in Brazil. It introduces mandates for Green Diesel (up to 3% blend in Diesel), SAF (GHG emission reductions on domestic flights of 1% by 2027, rising to 10% by 2037), and biomethane (GHG reduction requirements from 1% to 10% for natural gas producers and importers starting in 2026), and raises blending caps to 35% for ethanol in gasoline and 25% for biodiesel in Diesel.
However, while there have been relevant advances in Brazilian legislation and regulation to expand biofuels in the national energy matrix, there are opportunities for evolution in terms of providing incentives for the production of fossil products with a lower carbon footprint or fuels produced by co-processing, as seen in the international aviation sector, where CORSIA considers Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF) and SAF produced by co-processing as means to meet its targets. For the energy transition to be just and feasible, considering the goals established in the Paris Agreement, it will be necessary to promote all existing means to reduce emissions, especially those that can be achieved with less investment, utilizing existing infrastructure.
Co-author/s:
Nivea Silva, Regulatory Affairs Consultant, Petrobas.
Brazil has nearly a century of experience in biofuel production, which began in the 1930s with the blending of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline. Today, it is the world's second-largest producer of biofuels, with significant output of ethanol and biodiesel. Gasoline sold in Brazil contains 27% ethanol, and diesel is blended with 14% biodiesel. Over 70% of the country’s cars are equipped with flex-fuel engines, allowing the use of any ethanol-gasoline blend.
In addition to large-scale biofuel production, the Brazilian market currently offers Diesel produced via co-processing with 5% renewable content, carbon-neutral gasoline (with lifecycle GHG emissions offset by carbon credits), bunker fuel with 24% renewable content, and asphalt made from recycled material with lower energy consumption during application. Refineries are also testing SAF production via co-processing (with 1.2% vegetable oil), fuels with 5% bio-oil, and petrochemical products with renewable input, such as Light Refinery Hydrocarbons (LRH), from co-processing fossil streams with sugarcane ethanol.
The Fuel of the Future Law opens new opportunities to scale up biofuel production and use in Brazil. It introduces mandates for Green Diesel (up to 3% blend in Diesel), SAF (GHG emission reductions on domestic flights of 1% by 2027, rising to 10% by 2037), and biomethane (GHG reduction requirements from 1% to 10% for natural gas producers and importers starting in 2026), and raises blending caps to 35% for ethanol in gasoline and 25% for biodiesel in Diesel.
However, while there have been relevant advances in Brazilian legislation and regulation to expand biofuels in the national energy matrix, there are opportunities for evolution in terms of providing incentives for the production of fossil products with a lower carbon footprint or fuels produced by co-processing, as seen in the international aviation sector, where CORSIA considers Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF) and SAF produced by co-processing as means to meet its targets. For the energy transition to be just and feasible, considering the goals established in the Paris Agreement, it will be necessary to promote all existing means to reduce emissions, especially those that can be achieved with less investment, utilizing existing infrastructure.
Co-author/s:
Nivea Silva, Regulatory Affairs Consultant, Petrobas.
Walter R. Hufford
Chair
Vice President - Government Affairs and Regulatory Coordination
Repsol
Rufaydah Alyamani
Vice Chair
Sustainability and Climate Change Professional Engineer
Ministry of Energy
Aisha Turebayeva
Vice Chair
Director of Strategy and Portfolio Management
JSC NC - KazMunayGas
Policymakers often set broad and lofty goals for achieving clean energy transition, but the macroscopic nature of these goals often makes it difficult to translate them into implementation. Due to the lengthy time horizons involved and technological uncertainty, decarbonisation targets tend to be primarily aspirational, with few concrete details on what actions will be taken. This paper attempts to reconcile long-term energy system planning with technical factors to identify the highest impact areas for regulatory support of technological innovation and project financing and achieve energy system decarbonisation. It does so through four stages of analysis. Firstly, the engineering constraints on improving the efficiency of two dominant sources of renewable energy - wind and solar - are explicated, noting the role of complementarity in minimising fossil fuel dependence. Secondly, a Sobol sensitivity analysis is performed on an hourly model of Great Britain's (GB) 2050 energy system, determining in what domains dramatic technological progress is necessary for decarbonisation by varying rates of technological change and adoption rates across supply, demand, and flexibility inputs using a quasi-random sampling method. Thirdly, Great Britain is compared to the Chinese energy system, highlighting the key structural differences like market liquidity, demand profiles and heavy reliance on Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), thereby evaluating what an efficient and effective low-carbon energy system would look like for China in 2050. Fourthly, policy recommendations are formulated based on the two cases and extrapolated into general conclusions for energy policymakers, which speak to the value of carbon capture, nuclear power, and power system flexibility.
This paper presents the evolution of biofuels in Brazil and the ongoing efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the oil and gas sector, through the introduction of lower-carbon fossil fuels and fossil-based products made via co-processing with renewable content. In addition, it provides an assessment of key national public policies, with a particular focus on the “Future Fuel Law,” approved in October 2024, highlighting its advancements and opportunities for improvement in support of a just energy transition.
Brazil has nearly a century of experience in biofuel production, which began in the 1930s with the blending of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline. Today, it is the world's second-largest producer of biofuels, with significant output of ethanol and biodiesel. Gasoline sold in Brazil contains 27% ethanol, and diesel is blended with 14% biodiesel. Over 70% of the country’s cars are equipped with flex-fuel engines, allowing the use of any ethanol-gasoline blend.
In addition to large-scale biofuel production, the Brazilian market currently offers Diesel produced via co-processing with 5% renewable content, carbon-neutral gasoline (with lifecycle GHG emissions offset by carbon credits), bunker fuel with 24% renewable content, and asphalt made from recycled material with lower energy consumption during application. Refineries are also testing SAF production via co-processing (with 1.2% vegetable oil), fuels with 5% bio-oil, and petrochemical products with renewable input, such as Light Refinery Hydrocarbons (LRH), from co-processing fossil streams with sugarcane ethanol.
The Fuel of the Future Law opens new opportunities to scale up biofuel production and use in Brazil. It introduces mandates for Green Diesel (up to 3% blend in Diesel), SAF (GHG emission reductions on domestic flights of 1% by 2027, rising to 10% by 2037), and biomethane (GHG reduction requirements from 1% to 10% for natural gas producers and importers starting in 2026), and raises blending caps to 35% for ethanol in gasoline and 25% for biodiesel in Diesel.
However, while there have been relevant advances in Brazilian legislation and regulation to expand biofuels in the national energy matrix, there are opportunities for evolution in terms of providing incentives for the production of fossil products with a lower carbon footprint or fuels produced by co-processing, as seen in the international aviation sector, where CORSIA considers Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF) and SAF produced by co-processing as means to meet its targets. For the energy transition to be just and feasible, considering the goals established in the Paris Agreement, it will be necessary to promote all existing means to reduce emissions, especially those that can be achieved with less investment, utilizing existing infrastructure.
Co-author/s:
Nivea Silva, Regulatory Affairs Consultant, Petrobas.
Brazil has nearly a century of experience in biofuel production, which began in the 1930s with the blending of anhydrous ethanol in gasoline. Today, it is the world's second-largest producer of biofuels, with significant output of ethanol and biodiesel. Gasoline sold in Brazil contains 27% ethanol, and diesel is blended with 14% biodiesel. Over 70% of the country’s cars are equipped with flex-fuel engines, allowing the use of any ethanol-gasoline blend.
In addition to large-scale biofuel production, the Brazilian market currently offers Diesel produced via co-processing with 5% renewable content, carbon-neutral gasoline (with lifecycle GHG emissions offset by carbon credits), bunker fuel with 24% renewable content, and asphalt made from recycled material with lower energy consumption during application. Refineries are also testing SAF production via co-processing (with 1.2% vegetable oil), fuels with 5% bio-oil, and petrochemical products with renewable input, such as Light Refinery Hydrocarbons (LRH), from co-processing fossil streams with sugarcane ethanol.
The Fuel of the Future Law opens new opportunities to scale up biofuel production and use in Brazil. It introduces mandates for Green Diesel (up to 3% blend in Diesel), SAF (GHG emission reductions on domestic flights of 1% by 2027, rising to 10% by 2037), and biomethane (GHG reduction requirements from 1% to 10% for natural gas producers and importers starting in 2026), and raises blending caps to 35% for ethanol in gasoline and 25% for biodiesel in Diesel.
However, while there have been relevant advances in Brazilian legislation and regulation to expand biofuels in the national energy matrix, there are opportunities for evolution in terms of providing incentives for the production of fossil products with a lower carbon footprint or fuels produced by co-processing, as seen in the international aviation sector, where CORSIA considers Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF) and SAF produced by co-processing as means to meet its targets. For the energy transition to be just and feasible, considering the goals established in the Paris Agreement, it will be necessary to promote all existing means to reduce emissions, especially those that can be achieved with less investment, utilizing existing infrastructure.
Co-author/s:
Nivea Silva, Regulatory Affairs Consultant, Petrobas.
Yakoub Mohamed Karnaf
Speaker
Studies Superintendent / Planning Department
Libyan National Oil Corporation
Libya’s National Energy Strategy (LNES) launches a transformative roadmap to ensure a smooth transition of the country’s energy sector toward sustainability, affordability, and energy security. As a resource-rich, post-conflict nation with high energy and carbon intensity (1.82 kWh per USD of GDP and ~831 g CO₂ per kWh), Libya seeks an adequate strategic shift through economic modeling, policy reform, and infrastructure modernization. The NES employs a Net Benefit framework built on the novel Net Energy Revenue Equation. This equation integrates key components such as the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC), and emissions modules to evaluate the expected transition scenarios, including Business-as-Usual, Gas-Substitution, and Accelerated Renewable Energy Deployment. The focused scenarios prioritize as first objective in replacing liquid fuels with natural gas, accelerating renewable deployment, and improving efficiency across end-use sectors.
Fuel subsidy reform is a critical mechanism for achieving this transition. In 2024, the national energy budget reached $17 billion, with approximately $8 billion allocated to subsidies. Redirecting these funds to clean energy investments could yield $5.8 billion in net energy benefits by 2030 and reduce CO₂ emissions by over 5.5 million tons annually. The LNES targets approximately 30% renewable electricity by 2037 and aims to approach as close as possible to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century, supported by phased implementation and inclusive governance.
The National Oil Corporation will pilot the conversion of the Tibisti oil field to operate exclusively on renewable energy. This initiative will eliminate liquid fuel use in power generation and achieve zero flaring through an associated gas utilization project. On the other hand, solar energy units will be installed on selected homes, public facilities, and commercial buildings as Demo-Sites for decentralized energy solutions.
These efforts are intended to encourage policy-makers to establish legislative frameworks that support this ambitious transition. They also complement broader national measures such as wind and solar projects, and energy efficiency programs. A key objective is to reduce electricity consumption by up to 20% and cut CO₂ emissions by approximately 300,000 tons annually.
Aligned with global frameworks including the Paris Agreement (COP21, the UN Climate Change Conference held in 2015), UN Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all), and the African Union’s Agenda 2063, the NES positions Libya as an emerging energy hub in North Africa. Within this frame, this paper highlights the LNES as an innovative, replicable model for resource-rich, post-conflict economies seeking to balance economic development with climate change commitments, offering actionable lessons for accelerating practical pathways toward a secure, low-carbon energy future.
Fuel subsidy reform is a critical mechanism for achieving this transition. In 2024, the national energy budget reached $17 billion, with approximately $8 billion allocated to subsidies. Redirecting these funds to clean energy investments could yield $5.8 billion in net energy benefits by 2030 and reduce CO₂ emissions by over 5.5 million tons annually. The LNES targets approximately 30% renewable electricity by 2037 and aims to approach as close as possible to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century, supported by phased implementation and inclusive governance.
The National Oil Corporation will pilot the conversion of the Tibisti oil field to operate exclusively on renewable energy. This initiative will eliminate liquid fuel use in power generation and achieve zero flaring through an associated gas utilization project. On the other hand, solar energy units will be installed on selected homes, public facilities, and commercial buildings as Demo-Sites for decentralized energy solutions.
These efforts are intended to encourage policy-makers to establish legislative frameworks that support this ambitious transition. They also complement broader national measures such as wind and solar projects, and energy efficiency programs. A key objective is to reduce electricity consumption by up to 20% and cut CO₂ emissions by approximately 300,000 tons annually.
Aligned with global frameworks including the Paris Agreement (COP21, the UN Climate Change Conference held in 2015), UN Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all), and the African Union’s Agenda 2063, the NES positions Libya as an emerging energy hub in North Africa. Within this frame, this paper highlights the LNES as an innovative, replicable model for resource-rich, post-conflict economies seeking to balance economic development with climate change commitments, offering actionable lessons for accelerating practical pathways toward a secure, low-carbon energy future.
Trade and climate policy—two critical arenas of global governance—are increasingly shaping the trajectory of energy transitions and competitiveness. As major economies implement carbon tariffs, subsidies, and green industrial policies, the risks of fragmentation and inequity grow, particularly for vulnerable economies. At the same time, trade offers opportunities to accelerate decarbonization by expanding markets for clean technologies and rewarding low-carbon production. This paper addresses the emerging concept of carbon competitiveness, defined as the capacity of nations to reduce emissions while maintaining trade and economic strength.
The research develops an integrated framework combining three novel tools. First, a Carbon Competitiveness Index (CCI) measures how countries balance emissions reductions with competitiveness, incorporating factors such as carbon intensity, leakage risk, innovation capacity, and institutional readiness. Second, long-term scenarios to 2050—developed through GTAP-E and integrated assessment modeling—map alternative futures of cooperation and fragmentation across trade and climate regimes. Third, governance blueprints translate these insights into actionable pathways, including climate clubs, carbon markets for emerging economies, and reforms of sustainability impact assessments.
Case studies, including work on steel sector decarbonization and the design of a Saudi Emissions Trading System, demonstrate how the CCI and scenarios apply in practice. These examples reveal which producers adapt successfully, how trade measures reshape competitiveness, and how Global South exporters may be affected. Beyond diagnostics, the project introduces a deliberative forum approach, bringing together negotiators, policymakers, and business leaders in structured dialogue to bridge technical analysis with political feasibility.
The paper contributes to global debates on energy, trade, and climate change by:
By reframing trade not as an obstacle but as an engine for equitable decarbonization, this work provides pragmatic pathways for balancing climate ambition with competitiveness. It speaks directly to the WPC theme Pathways to an Energy Future for All, offering insights for policymakers, industry, and scholars navigating the evolving trade–climate–energy nexus.
The research develops an integrated framework combining three novel tools. First, a Carbon Competitiveness Index (CCI) measures how countries balance emissions reductions with competitiveness, incorporating factors such as carbon intensity, leakage risk, innovation capacity, and institutional readiness. Second, long-term scenarios to 2050—developed through GTAP-E and integrated assessment modeling—map alternative futures of cooperation and fragmentation across trade and climate regimes. Third, governance blueprints translate these insights into actionable pathways, including climate clubs, carbon markets for emerging economies, and reforms of sustainability impact assessments.
Case studies, including work on steel sector decarbonization and the design of a Saudi Emissions Trading System, demonstrate how the CCI and scenarios apply in practice. These examples reveal which producers adapt successfully, how trade measures reshape competitiveness, and how Global South exporters may be affected. Beyond diagnostics, the project introduces a deliberative forum approach, bringing together negotiators, policymakers, and business leaders in structured dialogue to bridge technical analysis with political feasibility.
The paper contributes to global debates on energy, trade, and climate change by:
- Advancing new metrics to capture carbon competitiveness.
- Offering foresight tools for turbulent futures.
- Designing governance innovations that link trade, climate, and equity.
By reframing trade not as an obstacle but as an engine for equitable decarbonization, this work provides pragmatic pathways for balancing climate ambition with competitiveness. It speaks directly to the WPC theme Pathways to an Energy Future for All, offering insights for policymakers, industry, and scholars navigating the evolving trade–climate–energy nexus.
Kira Negron (CEO, GLTRCORE; President, Saudi Business Council) presents a policy‑driven framework to align strategic sovereign and institutional capital with host‑country policy instruments and local innovation ecosystems to accelerate scalable, affordable and socially inclusive clean‑energy deployment worldwide.
The submission argues that credible transition pathways require three integrated pillars:
The paper defines practical policy levers and accountability metrics to embed in financing agreements and regulatory approvals: jobs per $100m invested, localisation percentage, training‑to‑employment conversion rate, and GHG abated per $ invested. It synthesises lessons from multi‑jurisdictional pilots and public‑private initiatives to show how these levers accelerate project delivery, de‑risk investment, and produce measurable socio‑economic outcomes.
The presentation offers a pragmatic roadmap for policymakers and investors:
By integrating capital, policy and people, the proposed framework ensures that energy transition investments strengthen supply security, maintain affordability and generate shared prosperity. This approach positions host nations—particularly the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as attractive, reliable partners for global investors seeking impact‑oriented, scalable energy projects that deliver both decarbonisation and socio‑economic value.
The submission argues that credible transition pathways require three integrated pillars:
- Strategic capital mobilisation blended‑finance vehicles and investment compacts that tie concessional tranches to measurable localisation and job‑creation KPIs;
- Adaptive public policy — modular public‑private partnership (PPP) and procurement models that enable phased technical transfer while safeguarding supply security and affordability; and
- Human‑capital integration — accredited reskilling, apprenticeship and certified on‑the‑job pipelines co‑designed by government, investors and education providers to prioritise youth and women’s employment.
The paper defines practical policy levers and accountability metrics to embed in financing agreements and regulatory approvals: jobs per $100m invested, localisation percentage, training‑to‑employment conversion rate, and GHG abated per $ invested. It synthesises lessons from multi‑jurisdictional pilots and public‑private initiatives to show how these levers accelerate project delivery, de‑risk investment, and produce measurable socio‑economic outcomes.
The presentation offers a pragmatic roadmap for policymakers and investors:
- Establish joint investment‑policy compacts that align capital flows with local development outcomes and regulatory certainty;
- Mandate human‑capital KPIs and localisation targets within financing structures to ensure durable employment and skills transfer; and
- Create a multi‑stakeholder Energy Leadership Forum to disseminate best practices, standardise outcome metrics, and scale replicable models across regions.
By integrating capital, policy and people, the proposed framework ensures that energy transition investments strengthen supply security, maintain affordability and generate shared prosperity. This approach positions host nations—particularly the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as attractive, reliable partners for global investors seeking impact‑oriented, scalable energy projects that deliver both decarbonisation and socio‑economic value.
