TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Energy Leadership – Future Pathways
Public Policy (Global and Local) - Climate Change, Transition Management, Supply Security and Energy Affordability
Forum 26 | Digital Poster Plaza 5
28
April
10:00
12:00
UTC+3
The energy trilemma – the balance of energy sustainability, energy affordability, and energy security – is a challenge facing policy makers across the globe at both the national and local levels. The challenge is rooted in a reality that shifting any of these elements require difficult trade-offs in the others. This challenge is compounded by the fact that the impact of these decisions are not evenly distributed for stakeholders in a local community, nation, or planet, and the stakeholders have varying degrees of understanding of the issues. Providing leadership in these situations is difficult, and this session will explore case studies of what has worked or not worked and what skills and knowledge policy makers need to be effective in these situations.
Effective implementation of emissions reduction policies whether aligned with OGMP 2.0, the EU Methane Regulation (EU 2024/1781), or national climate frameworks depends on access to reliable, site-specific data. This paper presents findings from over 1,000 mobile measurement campaigns conducted globally across upstream and midstream oil and gas assets, showing how airborne, multi-component monitoring has been used to support both regulatory policy and operational decision-making.
Emissions data was collected using a mobile measurement platform capable of quantifying methane, carbon dioxide, sulfur compounds, VOCs, and assessing flare performance. The system produces high-resolution outputs suitable for regulatory use, including concentration mapping, emission rate estimation, flare combustion efficiency and flare Destruction and Removal Efficiency (DRE). Measurement protocols are aligned with EN 17628:2022 for fugitive emissions detection and follow ISO/IEC 17025:2017 standards for calibration and traceability. The resulting datasets are directly applicable for site-level emissions reporting, operational optimization, and compliance planning.
Case studies from different countries demonstrate how national energy agencies and NOCs used this data to:
Identify high-priority assets for targeted action.
Avoid blanket regulations that would increase compliance costs for low-emitting sites.
Phase policy requirements based on actual site performance.
Reduce unnecessary CAPEX by validating maintenance decisions with measured data.
Conclusion: Integrating multi-component, site-level measurement into policy and operational planning allows governments to set ambitious emissions targets while maintaining energy affordability and supply security. This supports more adaptive, cost-effective, and data-driven climate policy implementation.
Emissions data was collected using a mobile measurement platform capable of quantifying methane, carbon dioxide, sulfur compounds, VOCs, and assessing flare performance. The system produces high-resolution outputs suitable for regulatory use, including concentration mapping, emission rate estimation, flare combustion efficiency and flare Destruction and Removal Efficiency (DRE). Measurement protocols are aligned with EN 17628:2022 for fugitive emissions detection and follow ISO/IEC 17025:2017 standards for calibration and traceability. The resulting datasets are directly applicable for site-level emissions reporting, operational optimization, and compliance planning.
Case studies from different countries demonstrate how national energy agencies and NOCs used this data to:
Identify high-priority assets for targeted action.
Avoid blanket regulations that would increase compliance costs for low-emitting sites.
Phase policy requirements based on actual site performance.
Reduce unnecessary CAPEX by validating maintenance decisions with measured data.
Conclusion: Integrating multi-component, site-level measurement into policy and operational planning allows governments to set ambitious emissions targets while maintaining energy affordability and supply security. This supports more adaptive, cost-effective, and data-driven climate policy implementation.
The global energy transition towards renewables poses complex challenges for oil rich countries. Furthermore, such countries face increasing pressure to diversify their energy systems. Current models of energy transition in fossil fuel rich countries suffer from two critical limitations. First, they are predominantly techno economic, overlooking the entrenched socio political structures, the Petrostate complex, that actively resist change. Second, they treat the state as a monolithic actor, failing to account for the emerging, polycentric forces (e.g., digital communities, private tech startups) that could disrupt the status quo. This creates a significant gap in understanding non linear, socially driven transition pathways. The energy transition represents a critical strategic imperative for resource-dependent nations. This necessity is driven by the dual pressures of finite hydrocarbon reserves, which guarantee eventual resource depletion, and the increasing likelihood of binding international climate change legislation that could severely constrain future fossil fuel extraction. Therefore, the aim of this research is to answer the question: How do the dynamic interactions between the current structure and emerging multipolar actors shape the path of energy transition in Iran? To answer this question, we employ a systematic mapping approach. The study will categorize and track the influence, resources, and policy positions of both incumbent state actors and emerging polycentric forces to provide a definitive map of the transition arena. The expected results of this research are: The contested transition in oil-rich countries will be highlighted, highlighting the conditions under which multipolar actors can create turning points against the prevailing resistance. In addition, the findings will provide policymakers in petrostate countries with a practical tool to design interventions that empower bottom up innovation and mitigate the socio political risks of transition, ultimately outlining a viable pathway for oil rich nations to circumvent political paralysis and harness their vast resources for a renewable future. Keywords: Energy Transition, Petrostate, Iran, Polycentric Governance, Decarbonisation Policy.
Co-author/s:
Amir Mohammad Moghani, Ph.D. Student in Energy Governance, University of Tehran.
Abbas Maleki, Professor, Sharif University of Technology.
Co-author/s:
Amir Mohammad Moghani, Ph.D. Student in Energy Governance, University of Tehran.
Abbas Maleki, Professor, Sharif University of Technology.
Natural Gas is the most viable time-bound transition fuel for Africa as the world advances towards net-zero and equitable energy access. Over the past decade, significant natural gas discoveries have been made in Senegal, Mauritania, Ghana and proven reserves in Nigeria exceeding 200 trillion cubic feet (NNPC, 2023)[AD1] . This indicates that the west African region can leverage on natural gas to meet it energy supply deficit while pursuing the long-term decarbonization goals, with Natural Gas as the transition fuel.
However,, without coherent and forward-looking regulation, natural gas development risks locking the region into long-lived carbon infrastructure, undermining climate commitments, and slowing the growth of sustainable and renewable energy. To address this, the paper proposes a tailored Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) for West Africa, a policy and regulatory structure designed to guide responsible gas development while aligning with net-zero objectives and regional integration goals.
The TNGDF will be anchored on three pillars:
In addition, the framework also emphasizes access and affordability mandates, ensuring that rural and underserved populations benefit from gas expansion. According to the IEA (2022), approximately 490 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to modern energy sources. As such, a deliberate policy intervention will do well to set off this energy disparity.
This paper draws on both professional experience in Ghana’s downstream fuel supply sector, and current academic engagement as a Master of Science candidate in Energy Economics at the Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration. Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) proposes a pragmatic roadmap for West African policymakers to balance the urgent need for net-zero development with the imperative of ensuring an equitable energy future for all.
However,, without coherent and forward-looking regulation, natural gas development risks locking the region into long-lived carbon infrastructure, undermining climate commitments, and slowing the growth of sustainable and renewable energy. To address this, the paper proposes a tailored Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) for West Africa, a policy and regulatory structure designed to guide responsible gas development while aligning with net-zero objectives and regional integration goals.
The TNGDF will be anchored on three pillars:
- Sunset Licensing for Gas Projects. Development and usage of natural gas within the transitional period ensuring alignment with renewable energy expansion. This approach ensures that infrastructures and investment in natural gas as a transitional fuel is developed on temporary basis within the timelines of renewable energy development.
- Carbon accountability measures. While natural gas emits 30-50% less carbon than coal and diesel, its transitional lifecycle should be transparently measured and be verified by appropriate authorities. There should be a regulation to make sure that gas infrastructures emit a particular set unit of carbon within the transitional lifecycle.
- Integrated Investment Strategies. Investment in natural gas as a transitional fuel should have a parallel investment into renewable energy sources. For instance, , investment funds for the development of Gas Processing Plants should have a mandatory percentage assigned to develop concurrently a renewable energy facility like solars.
In addition, the framework also emphasizes access and affordability mandates, ensuring that rural and underserved populations benefit from gas expansion. According to the IEA (2022), approximately 490 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to modern energy sources. As such, a deliberate policy intervention will do well to set off this energy disparity.
This paper draws on both professional experience in Ghana’s downstream fuel supply sector, and current academic engagement as a Master of Science candidate in Energy Economics at the Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration. Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) proposes a pragmatic roadmap for West African policymakers to balance the urgent need for net-zero development with the imperative of ensuring an equitable energy future for all.
As the global energy sector navigates the competing priorities of sustainability, affordability, and security, policy makers face increasingly complex decisions—especially in contexts where policy trade-offs manifest unevenly across local and national levels. This abstract investigates how corporate decarbonisation strategies—exemplified by Saudi Aramco’s recent trajectory—can offer critical leadership and evidence to support more effective public policy responses to the energy trilemma.
Nationally, governments are under pressure to meet decarbonisation targets while managing economic competitiveness and energy access. According to the IEA (2023), 45% of necessary emissions reductions to 2030 in net-zero scenarios depend on technologies not yet deployed at scale—many of which require private sector innovation and capital. Aramco’s strategic investment in carbon capture, circular carbon economy technologies, and hydrogen demonstrates how corporate actors can mobilise resources and technical capacity in ways that policy alone cannot achieve. Its pledge to reach net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2050 (Aramco, 2023), combined with a $1.5 billion sustainability fund and in decarbonisation investments announced in 2023, provides a template for private-public alignment.
At the local level, policy implementation often falters due to limited administrative capacity and uneven understanding of global energy challenges. Aramco’s iktva program, which has contributed over $200 billion to GDP and supported over 100,000 jobs, offers a replicable model for local industrial development that reinforces national energy strategies while building grassroots economic resilience. Moreover, its community investments—such as STEM education initiatives and disaster relief responses—align with SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), demonstrating how companies can fill delivery gaps left by overstretched local governance.
Leadership in this space requires not only technological foresight but also the ability to navigate contested stakeholder interests across levels of governance. Aramco’s dual approach—simultaneously supporting global net-zero goals and regional economic inclusion—illustrates how multilevel governance challenges can be mitigated when corporate and public policy frameworks are strategically aligned.
This paper proposes that global energy companies, through transparent, long-term decarbonisation strategies, can enhance both the credibility and effectiveness of public energy policy. By translating complex climate and energy objectives into actionable pathways with measurable social and economic returns, corporate actors can serve as enablers of just and resilient transitions. Aramco’s case provides a grounded example of such leadership, offering important lessons for emerging and established economies alike.
Nationally, governments are under pressure to meet decarbonisation targets while managing economic competitiveness and energy access. According to the IEA (2023), 45% of necessary emissions reductions to 2030 in net-zero scenarios depend on technologies not yet deployed at scale—many of which require private sector innovation and capital. Aramco’s strategic investment in carbon capture, circular carbon economy technologies, and hydrogen demonstrates how corporate actors can mobilise resources and technical capacity in ways that policy alone cannot achieve. Its pledge to reach net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2050 (Aramco, 2023), combined with a $1.5 billion sustainability fund and in decarbonisation investments announced in 2023, provides a template for private-public alignment.
At the local level, policy implementation often falters due to limited administrative capacity and uneven understanding of global energy challenges. Aramco’s iktva program, which has contributed over $200 billion to GDP and supported over 100,000 jobs, offers a replicable model for local industrial development that reinforces national energy strategies while building grassroots economic resilience. Moreover, its community investments—such as STEM education initiatives and disaster relief responses—align with SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), demonstrating how companies can fill delivery gaps left by overstretched local governance.
Leadership in this space requires not only technological foresight but also the ability to navigate contested stakeholder interests across levels of governance. Aramco’s dual approach—simultaneously supporting global net-zero goals and regional economic inclusion—illustrates how multilevel governance challenges can be mitigated when corporate and public policy frameworks are strategically aligned.
This paper proposes that global energy companies, through transparent, long-term decarbonisation strategies, can enhance both the credibility and effectiveness of public energy policy. By translating complex climate and energy objectives into actionable pathways with measurable social and economic returns, corporate actors can serve as enablers of just and resilient transitions. Aramco’s case provides a grounded example of such leadership, offering important lessons for emerging and established economies alike.
This research examines the impact of government policies on energy transition and the emerging new energy economy. Government intervention can either accelerate or hinder the transition to sustainable energy systems. However, current policy frameworks often lag behind the rapid advancements of the private sector. This study explores how governments can adopt agile principles to enhance policy adaptability, ensuring effective leadership in the energy transition.
A comparative analysis of Canada and Norway’s energy policies will be conducted, juxtaposed with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) energy management model. The study does not seek to establish a singular "correct" approach but rather evaluates success based on a government's ability to implement adaptive energy policies that effectively reduce emissions. While carbon taxation has been a dominant policy tool, this research argues that energy efficiency has been historically overlooked as a key driver of sustainable energy transitions.
A comparative analysis of Canada and Norway’s energy policies will be conducted, juxtaposed with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) energy management model. The study does not seek to establish a singular "correct" approach but rather evaluates success based on a government's ability to implement adaptive energy policies that effectively reduce emissions. While carbon taxation has been a dominant policy tool, this research argues that energy efficiency has been historically overlooked as a key driver of sustainable energy transitions.
This paper critically examines the economic costs of climate mitigation measures and their implications for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 diversification agenda. Through scenario-based modeling of 1.5-2°C, 3°C, and 4°C warming trajectories, it quantify the financial burdens and structural challenges associated with aligning ambitious economic transformation with global climate action. Results indicate that stringent climate policies under the 2°C scenario could incur cumulative costs of $1.2-1.5 trillion by mid-century, alongside GDP contractions of 3.2%, 5.7%, and 7.6% by 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. Sectoral analysis shows disproportionate impacts: manufacturing faces potential carbon liabilities of 12-18% of current asset values, while tourism GDP could fall by up to 1.1% by 2040. The hydrocarbon sector remains the primary channel of economic disruption, accounting for 42% of projected GDP contractions despite diversification efforts.
The fiscal analysis reveals a timing mismatch: transformation investments of $290-440 billion through 2040 must be frontloaded just as oil revenues decline, creating a 25-40% revenue gap by 2040. Labor market modeling suggests a net displacement of 50,000-90,000 workers under stringent pathways, though renewable energy, hydrogen, and circular economy sectors could generate 90,000-190,000 new jobs.
Policy scenario evaluation highlights the “Balanced Transition Portfolio” as the most effective strategy, combining moderate carbon pricing, sectoral protections, and accelerated renewable deployment to reduce economic impacts by 30-45%. Additionally, introducing producer-side carbon pricing could generate $80-100 billion annually by 2030, transforming mitigation from a fiscal liability into a strategic revenue stream that funds diversification.
This study advances the dialogue on energy leadership by reframing climate mitigation not solely as a cost but as a pathway to resilience and competitive advantage. By integrating fiscal reform, sectoral adaptation, and labor market transition into a cohesive policy portfolio, Saudi Arabia, and other resource-dependent economies, can lead in shaping equitable pathways toward an energy future for all.
Keywords: Climate Mitigation Costs, Carbon Pricing, Economic Diversification, Fiscal Policy, Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, Energy Leadership
The fiscal analysis reveals a timing mismatch: transformation investments of $290-440 billion through 2040 must be frontloaded just as oil revenues decline, creating a 25-40% revenue gap by 2040. Labor market modeling suggests a net displacement of 50,000-90,000 workers under stringent pathways, though renewable energy, hydrogen, and circular economy sectors could generate 90,000-190,000 new jobs.
Policy scenario evaluation highlights the “Balanced Transition Portfolio” as the most effective strategy, combining moderate carbon pricing, sectoral protections, and accelerated renewable deployment to reduce economic impacts by 30-45%. Additionally, introducing producer-side carbon pricing could generate $80-100 billion annually by 2030, transforming mitigation from a fiscal liability into a strategic revenue stream that funds diversification.
This study advances the dialogue on energy leadership by reframing climate mitigation not solely as a cost but as a pathway to resilience and competitive advantage. By integrating fiscal reform, sectoral adaptation, and labor market transition into a cohesive policy portfolio, Saudi Arabia, and other resource-dependent economies, can lead in shaping equitable pathways toward an energy future for all.
Keywords: Climate Mitigation Costs, Carbon Pricing, Economic Diversification, Fiscal Policy, Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, Energy Leadership
Global energy development is facing severe challenges, and energy security has become the top concern of major countries since 2022. We have been through a major energy crisis when global energy prices soared due to regional conflicts, and energy supply interruptions caused by sanctions, system failures, cyber-attacks and extreme weather occurred more frequently. The geopolitical competition for natural gas and critical minerals needed in electrical industry have intensified. The long-term goal of coping with climate change is in conflict with the short-term goal of energy security. The concept of energy security has to evolve with time. Therefore, the future energy security should be energy system security or integrated energy security, which takes all energy sources and emergency scenarios into account, including oil, gas, coal and electricity, to ensure the sufficiency, efficiency, coordination and resilience of the entire energy system. Accordingly, we propose the definition of energy security as "a state in which the energy system of a country or region has the resilience to operate efficiently, stably and sustainably under most circumstances". By analyzing the risk factors affecting energy security, this study selected specific indicators from four dimensions to evaluate the situation of energy security. First, Accessibility, which includes geopolitical factors, supply and demand situation, energy investment, installed power capacity, critical mineral supply and other factors that affect the stable supply of energy. The second is Sustainability, which includes energy intensity, energy production mix, greenhouse gas emissions, energy technology and other factors that affect the quality of energy development and environmental sustainability in the medium and long term. Third, Affordability, including energy prices, energy poverty and energy production costs that affect consumer affordability and the cost of energy production. Fourth, Resilience, which includes surplus capacity, energy storage, international energy cooperation, infrastructure security, network system security, emergency response mechanism and industrial chain stability that affect the redundancy and flexibility of energy systems, as well as the ability to cope with unexpected shocks. Under this framework, we established “RASA Global Energy Security Assessment System”. With data from 1970-2024, we evaluated global energy security situation and identified four major energy security shocks: the first and second oil crises, the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2022 global energy crisis. This study also proposed pathways for policymakers to build a resilient energy system.
Walter R. Hufford
Chair
Vice President - Government Affairs and Regulatory Coordination
Repsol
Rufaydah Alyamani
Vice Chair
Sustainability and Climate Change Professional Engineer
Ministry of Energy
Aisha Turebayeva
Vice Chair
Director of Strategy and Portfolio Management
JSC NC - KazMunayGas
Tamer Al-ramahi
Speaker
Industrial Technology Advisor
Canadian National Research Council - IRAP
This research examines the impact of government policies on energy transition and the emerging new energy economy. Government intervention can either accelerate or hinder the transition to sustainable energy systems. However, current policy frameworks often lag behind the rapid advancements of the private sector. This study explores how governments can adopt agile principles to enhance policy adaptability, ensuring effective leadership in the energy transition.
A comparative analysis of Canada and Norway’s energy policies will be conducted, juxtaposed with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) energy management model. The study does not seek to establish a singular "correct" approach but rather evaluates success based on a government's ability to implement adaptive energy policies that effectively reduce emissions. While carbon taxation has been a dominant policy tool, this research argues that energy efficiency has been historically overlooked as a key driver of sustainable energy transitions.
A comparative analysis of Canada and Norway’s energy policies will be conducted, juxtaposed with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) energy management model. The study does not seek to establish a singular "correct" approach but rather evaluates success based on a government's ability to implement adaptive energy policies that effectively reduce emissions. While carbon taxation has been a dominant policy tool, this research argues that energy efficiency has been historically overlooked as a key driver of sustainable energy transitions.
Hassan Alzain
Speaker
Environmental Management Graduate
Yale University (Nationally Sponsored)
This paper critically examines the economic costs of climate mitigation measures and their implications for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 diversification agenda. Through scenario-based modeling of 1.5-2°C, 3°C, and 4°C warming trajectories, it quantify the financial burdens and structural challenges associated with aligning ambitious economic transformation with global climate action. Results indicate that stringent climate policies under the 2°C scenario could incur cumulative costs of $1.2-1.5 trillion by mid-century, alongside GDP contractions of 3.2%, 5.7%, and 7.6% by 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. Sectoral analysis shows disproportionate impacts: manufacturing faces potential carbon liabilities of 12-18% of current asset values, while tourism GDP could fall by up to 1.1% by 2040. The hydrocarbon sector remains the primary channel of economic disruption, accounting for 42% of projected GDP contractions despite diversification efforts.
The fiscal analysis reveals a timing mismatch: transformation investments of $290-440 billion through 2040 must be frontloaded just as oil revenues decline, creating a 25-40% revenue gap by 2040. Labor market modeling suggests a net displacement of 50,000-90,000 workers under stringent pathways, though renewable energy, hydrogen, and circular economy sectors could generate 90,000-190,000 new jobs.
Policy scenario evaluation highlights the “Balanced Transition Portfolio” as the most effective strategy, combining moderate carbon pricing, sectoral protections, and accelerated renewable deployment to reduce economic impacts by 30-45%. Additionally, introducing producer-side carbon pricing could generate $80-100 billion annually by 2030, transforming mitigation from a fiscal liability into a strategic revenue stream that funds diversification.
This study advances the dialogue on energy leadership by reframing climate mitigation not solely as a cost but as a pathway to resilience and competitive advantage. By integrating fiscal reform, sectoral adaptation, and labor market transition into a cohesive policy portfolio, Saudi Arabia, and other resource-dependent economies, can lead in shaping equitable pathways toward an energy future for all.
Keywords: Climate Mitigation Costs, Carbon Pricing, Economic Diversification, Fiscal Policy, Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, Energy Leadership
The fiscal analysis reveals a timing mismatch: transformation investments of $290-440 billion through 2040 must be frontloaded just as oil revenues decline, creating a 25-40% revenue gap by 2040. Labor market modeling suggests a net displacement of 50,000-90,000 workers under stringent pathways, though renewable energy, hydrogen, and circular economy sectors could generate 90,000-190,000 new jobs.
Policy scenario evaluation highlights the “Balanced Transition Portfolio” as the most effective strategy, combining moderate carbon pricing, sectoral protections, and accelerated renewable deployment to reduce economic impacts by 30-45%. Additionally, introducing producer-side carbon pricing could generate $80-100 billion annually by 2030, transforming mitigation from a fiscal liability into a strategic revenue stream that funds diversification.
This study advances the dialogue on energy leadership by reframing climate mitigation not solely as a cost but as a pathway to resilience and competitive advantage. By integrating fiscal reform, sectoral adaptation, and labor market transition into a cohesive policy portfolio, Saudi Arabia, and other resource-dependent economies, can lead in shaping equitable pathways toward an energy future for all.
Keywords: Climate Mitigation Costs, Carbon Pricing, Economic Diversification, Fiscal Policy, Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, Energy Leadership
Amirhossein Ghasemi
Speaker
Energy Policy and Geopolitics Researcher
Sharif University of Technology
The global energy transition towards renewables poses complex challenges for oil rich countries. Furthermore, such countries face increasing pressure to diversify their energy systems. Current models of energy transition in fossil fuel rich countries suffer from two critical limitations. First, they are predominantly techno economic, overlooking the entrenched socio political structures, the Petrostate complex, that actively resist change. Second, they treat the state as a monolithic actor, failing to account for the emerging, polycentric forces (e.g., digital communities, private tech startups) that could disrupt the status quo. This creates a significant gap in understanding non linear, socially driven transition pathways. The energy transition represents a critical strategic imperative for resource-dependent nations. This necessity is driven by the dual pressures of finite hydrocarbon reserves, which guarantee eventual resource depletion, and the increasing likelihood of binding international climate change legislation that could severely constrain future fossil fuel extraction. Therefore, the aim of this research is to answer the question: How do the dynamic interactions between the current structure and emerging multipolar actors shape the path of energy transition in Iran? To answer this question, we employ a systematic mapping approach. The study will categorize and track the influence, resources, and policy positions of both incumbent state actors and emerging polycentric forces to provide a definitive map of the transition arena. The expected results of this research are: The contested transition in oil-rich countries will be highlighted, highlighting the conditions under which multipolar actors can create turning points against the prevailing resistance. In addition, the findings will provide policymakers in petrostate countries with a practical tool to design interventions that empower bottom up innovation and mitigate the socio political risks of transition, ultimately outlining a viable pathway for oil rich nations to circumvent political paralysis and harness their vast resources for a renewable future. Keywords: Energy Transition, Petrostate, Iran, Polycentric Governance, Decarbonisation Policy.
Co-author/s:
Amir Mohammad Moghani, Ph.D. Student in Energy Governance, University of Tehran.
Abbas Maleki, Professor, Sharif University of Technology.
Co-author/s:
Amir Mohammad Moghani, Ph.D. Student in Energy Governance, University of Tehran.
Abbas Maleki, Professor, Sharif University of Technology.
As the global energy sector navigates the competing priorities of sustainability, affordability, and security, policy makers face increasingly complex decisions—especially in contexts where policy trade-offs manifest unevenly across local and national levels. This abstract investigates how corporate decarbonisation strategies—exemplified by Saudi Aramco’s recent trajectory—can offer critical leadership and evidence to support more effective public policy responses to the energy trilemma.
Nationally, governments are under pressure to meet decarbonisation targets while managing economic competitiveness and energy access. According to the IEA (2023), 45% of necessary emissions reductions to 2030 in net-zero scenarios depend on technologies not yet deployed at scale—many of which require private sector innovation and capital. Aramco’s strategic investment in carbon capture, circular carbon economy technologies, and hydrogen demonstrates how corporate actors can mobilise resources and technical capacity in ways that policy alone cannot achieve. Its pledge to reach net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2050 (Aramco, 2023), combined with a $1.5 billion sustainability fund and in decarbonisation investments announced in 2023, provides a template for private-public alignment.
At the local level, policy implementation often falters due to limited administrative capacity and uneven understanding of global energy challenges. Aramco’s iktva program, which has contributed over $200 billion to GDP and supported over 100,000 jobs, offers a replicable model for local industrial development that reinforces national energy strategies while building grassroots economic resilience. Moreover, its community investments—such as STEM education initiatives and disaster relief responses—align with SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), demonstrating how companies can fill delivery gaps left by overstretched local governance.
Leadership in this space requires not only technological foresight but also the ability to navigate contested stakeholder interests across levels of governance. Aramco’s dual approach—simultaneously supporting global net-zero goals and regional economic inclusion—illustrates how multilevel governance challenges can be mitigated when corporate and public policy frameworks are strategically aligned.
This paper proposes that global energy companies, through transparent, long-term decarbonisation strategies, can enhance both the credibility and effectiveness of public energy policy. By translating complex climate and energy objectives into actionable pathways with measurable social and economic returns, corporate actors can serve as enablers of just and resilient transitions. Aramco’s case provides a grounded example of such leadership, offering important lessons for emerging and established economies alike.
Nationally, governments are under pressure to meet decarbonisation targets while managing economic competitiveness and energy access. According to the IEA (2023), 45% of necessary emissions reductions to 2030 in net-zero scenarios depend on technologies not yet deployed at scale—many of which require private sector innovation and capital. Aramco’s strategic investment in carbon capture, circular carbon economy technologies, and hydrogen demonstrates how corporate actors can mobilise resources and technical capacity in ways that policy alone cannot achieve. Its pledge to reach net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2050 (Aramco, 2023), combined with a $1.5 billion sustainability fund and in decarbonisation investments announced in 2023, provides a template for private-public alignment.
At the local level, policy implementation often falters due to limited administrative capacity and uneven understanding of global energy challenges. Aramco’s iktva program, which has contributed over $200 billion to GDP and supported over 100,000 jobs, offers a replicable model for local industrial development that reinforces national energy strategies while building grassroots economic resilience. Moreover, its community investments—such as STEM education initiatives and disaster relief responses—align with SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), demonstrating how companies can fill delivery gaps left by overstretched local governance.
Leadership in this space requires not only technological foresight but also the ability to navigate contested stakeholder interests across levels of governance. Aramco’s dual approach—simultaneously supporting global net-zero goals and regional economic inclusion—illustrates how multilevel governance challenges can be mitigated when corporate and public policy frameworks are strategically aligned.
This paper proposes that global energy companies, through transparent, long-term decarbonisation strategies, can enhance both the credibility and effectiveness of public energy policy. By translating complex climate and energy objectives into actionable pathways with measurable social and economic returns, corporate actors can serve as enablers of just and resilient transitions. Aramco’s case provides a grounded example of such leadership, offering important lessons for emerging and established economies alike.
Effective implementation of emissions reduction policies whether aligned with OGMP 2.0, the EU Methane Regulation (EU 2024/1781), or national climate frameworks depends on access to reliable, site-specific data. This paper presents findings from over 1,000 mobile measurement campaigns conducted globally across upstream and midstream oil and gas assets, showing how airborne, multi-component monitoring has been used to support both regulatory policy and operational decision-making.
Emissions data was collected using a mobile measurement platform capable of quantifying methane, carbon dioxide, sulfur compounds, VOCs, and assessing flare performance. The system produces high-resolution outputs suitable for regulatory use, including concentration mapping, emission rate estimation, flare combustion efficiency and flare Destruction and Removal Efficiency (DRE). Measurement protocols are aligned with EN 17628:2022 for fugitive emissions detection and follow ISO/IEC 17025:2017 standards for calibration and traceability. The resulting datasets are directly applicable for site-level emissions reporting, operational optimization, and compliance planning.
Case studies from different countries demonstrate how national energy agencies and NOCs used this data to:
Identify high-priority assets for targeted action.
Avoid blanket regulations that would increase compliance costs for low-emitting sites.
Phase policy requirements based on actual site performance.
Reduce unnecessary CAPEX by validating maintenance decisions with measured data.
Conclusion: Integrating multi-component, site-level measurement into policy and operational planning allows governments to set ambitious emissions targets while maintaining energy affordability and supply security. This supports more adaptive, cost-effective, and data-driven climate policy implementation.
Emissions data was collected using a mobile measurement platform capable of quantifying methane, carbon dioxide, sulfur compounds, VOCs, and assessing flare performance. The system produces high-resolution outputs suitable for regulatory use, including concentration mapping, emission rate estimation, flare combustion efficiency and flare Destruction and Removal Efficiency (DRE). Measurement protocols are aligned with EN 17628:2022 for fugitive emissions detection and follow ISO/IEC 17025:2017 standards for calibration and traceability. The resulting datasets are directly applicable for site-level emissions reporting, operational optimization, and compliance planning.
Case studies from different countries demonstrate how national energy agencies and NOCs used this data to:
Identify high-priority assets for targeted action.
Avoid blanket regulations that would increase compliance costs for low-emitting sites.
Phase policy requirements based on actual site performance.
Reduce unnecessary CAPEX by validating maintenance decisions with measured data.
Conclusion: Integrating multi-component, site-level measurement into policy and operational planning allows governments to set ambitious emissions targets while maintaining energy affordability and supply security. This supports more adaptive, cost-effective, and data-driven climate policy implementation.
Fredrick Sekle
Speaker
Petroleum Economics and Trade Expert
Oilmac Limited : StratFarm Africa Limited
Natural Gas is the most viable time-bound transition fuel for Africa as the world advances towards net-zero and equitable energy access. Over the past decade, significant natural gas discoveries have been made in Senegal, Mauritania, Ghana and proven reserves in Nigeria exceeding 200 trillion cubic feet (NNPC, 2023)[AD1] . This indicates that the west African region can leverage on natural gas to meet it energy supply deficit while pursuing the long-term decarbonization goals, with Natural Gas as the transition fuel.
However,, without coherent and forward-looking regulation, natural gas development risks locking the region into long-lived carbon infrastructure, undermining climate commitments, and slowing the growth of sustainable and renewable energy. To address this, the paper proposes a tailored Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) for West Africa, a policy and regulatory structure designed to guide responsible gas development while aligning with net-zero objectives and regional integration goals.
The TNGDF will be anchored on three pillars:
In addition, the framework also emphasizes access and affordability mandates, ensuring that rural and underserved populations benefit from gas expansion. According to the IEA (2022), approximately 490 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to modern energy sources. As such, a deliberate policy intervention will do well to set off this energy disparity.
This paper draws on both professional experience in Ghana’s downstream fuel supply sector, and current academic engagement as a Master of Science candidate in Energy Economics at the Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration. Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) proposes a pragmatic roadmap for West African policymakers to balance the urgent need for net-zero development with the imperative of ensuring an equitable energy future for all.
However,, without coherent and forward-looking regulation, natural gas development risks locking the region into long-lived carbon infrastructure, undermining climate commitments, and slowing the growth of sustainable and renewable energy. To address this, the paper proposes a tailored Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) for West Africa, a policy and regulatory structure designed to guide responsible gas development while aligning with net-zero objectives and regional integration goals.
The TNGDF will be anchored on three pillars:
- Sunset Licensing for Gas Projects. Development and usage of natural gas within the transitional period ensuring alignment with renewable energy expansion. This approach ensures that infrastructures and investment in natural gas as a transitional fuel is developed on temporary basis within the timelines of renewable energy development.
- Carbon accountability measures. While natural gas emits 30-50% less carbon than coal and diesel, its transitional lifecycle should be transparently measured and be verified by appropriate authorities. There should be a regulation to make sure that gas infrastructures emit a particular set unit of carbon within the transitional lifecycle.
- Integrated Investment Strategies. Investment in natural gas as a transitional fuel should have a parallel investment into renewable energy sources. For instance, , investment funds for the development of Gas Processing Plants should have a mandatory percentage assigned to develop concurrently a renewable energy facility like solars.
In addition, the framework also emphasizes access and affordability mandates, ensuring that rural and underserved populations benefit from gas expansion. According to the IEA (2022), approximately 490 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to modern energy sources. As such, a deliberate policy intervention will do well to set off this energy disparity.
This paper draws on both professional experience in Ghana’s downstream fuel supply sector, and current academic engagement as a Master of Science candidate in Energy Economics at the Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration. Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) proposes a pragmatic roadmap for West African policymakers to balance the urgent need for net-zero development with the imperative of ensuring an equitable energy future for all.
Pengcheng Zhang
Speaker
Senior Economist
Economics and Technology Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation
Global energy development is facing severe challenges, and energy security has become the top concern of major countries since 2022. We have been through a major energy crisis when global energy prices soared due to regional conflicts, and energy supply interruptions caused by sanctions, system failures, cyber-attacks and extreme weather occurred more frequently. The geopolitical competition for natural gas and critical minerals needed in electrical industry have intensified. The long-term goal of coping with climate change is in conflict with the short-term goal of energy security. The concept of energy security has to evolve with time. Therefore, the future energy security should be energy system security or integrated energy security, which takes all energy sources and emergency scenarios into account, including oil, gas, coal and electricity, to ensure the sufficiency, efficiency, coordination and resilience of the entire energy system. Accordingly, we propose the definition of energy security as "a state in which the energy system of a country or region has the resilience to operate efficiently, stably and sustainably under most circumstances". By analyzing the risk factors affecting energy security, this study selected specific indicators from four dimensions to evaluate the situation of energy security. First, Accessibility, which includes geopolitical factors, supply and demand situation, energy investment, installed power capacity, critical mineral supply and other factors that affect the stable supply of energy. The second is Sustainability, which includes energy intensity, energy production mix, greenhouse gas emissions, energy technology and other factors that affect the quality of energy development and environmental sustainability in the medium and long term. Third, Affordability, including energy prices, energy poverty and energy production costs that affect consumer affordability and the cost of energy production. Fourth, Resilience, which includes surplus capacity, energy storage, international energy cooperation, infrastructure security, network system security, emergency response mechanism and industrial chain stability that affect the redundancy and flexibility of energy systems, as well as the ability to cope with unexpected shocks. Under this framework, we established “RASA Global Energy Security Assessment System”. With data from 1970-2024, we evaluated global energy security situation and identified four major energy security shocks: the first and second oil crises, the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2022 global energy crisis. This study also proposed pathways for policymakers to build a resilient energy system.
