TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Energy Leadership – Future Pathways
Emissions data was collected using a mobile measurement platform capable of quantifying methane, carbon dioxide, sulfur compounds, VOCs, and assessing flare performance. The system produces high-resolution outputs suitable for regulatory use, including concentration mapping, emission rate estimation, flare combustion efficiency and flare Destruction and Removal Efficiency (DRE). Measurement protocols are aligned with EN 17628:2022 for fugitive emissions detection and follow ISO/IEC 17025:2017 standards for calibration and traceability. The resulting datasets are directly applicable for site-level emissions reporting, operational optimization, and compliance planning.
Case studies from different countries demonstrate how national energy agencies and NOCs used this data to:
Identify high-priority assets for targeted action.
Avoid blanket regulations that would increase compliance costs for low-emitting sites.
Phase policy requirements based on actual site performance.
Reduce unnecessary CAPEX by validating maintenance decisions with measured data.
Conclusion: Integrating multi-component, site-level measurement into policy and operational planning allows governments to set ambitious emissions targets while maintaining energy affordability and supply security. This supports more adaptive, cost-effective, and data-driven climate policy implementation.
Co-author/s:
Amir Mohammad Moghani, Ph.D. Student in Energy Governance, University of Tehran.
Abbas Maleki, Professor, Sharif University of Technology.
However,, without coherent and forward-looking regulation, natural gas development risks locking the region into long-lived carbon infrastructure, undermining climate commitments, and slowing the growth of sustainable and renewable energy. To address this, the paper proposes a tailored Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) for West Africa, a policy and regulatory structure designed to guide responsible gas development while aligning with net-zero objectives and regional integration goals.
The TNGDF will be anchored on three pillars:
- Sunset Licensing for Gas Projects. Development and usage of natural gas within the transitional period ensuring alignment with renewable energy expansion. This approach ensures that infrastructures and investment in natural gas as a transitional fuel is developed on temporary basis within the timelines of renewable energy development.
- Carbon accountability measures. While natural gas emits 30-50% less carbon than coal and diesel, its transitional lifecycle should be transparently measured and be verified by appropriate authorities. There should be a regulation to make sure that gas infrastructures emit a particular set unit of carbon within the transitional lifecycle.
- Integrated Investment Strategies. Investment in natural gas as a transitional fuel should have a parallel investment into renewable energy sources. For instance, , investment funds for the development of Gas Processing Plants should have a mandatory percentage assigned to develop concurrently a renewable energy facility like solars.
In addition, the framework also emphasizes access and affordability mandates, ensuring that rural and underserved populations benefit from gas expansion. According to the IEA (2022), approximately 490 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to modern energy sources. As such, a deliberate policy intervention will do well to set off this energy disparity.
This paper draws on both professional experience in Ghana’s downstream fuel supply sector, and current academic engagement as a Master of Science candidate in Energy Economics at the Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration. Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) proposes a pragmatic roadmap for West African policymakers to balance the urgent need for net-zero development with the imperative of ensuring an equitable energy future for all.
Nationally, governments are under pressure to meet decarbonisation targets while managing economic competitiveness and energy access. According to the IEA (2023), 45% of necessary emissions reductions to 2030 in net-zero scenarios depend on technologies not yet deployed at scale—many of which require private sector innovation and capital. Aramco’s strategic investment in carbon capture, circular carbon economy technologies, and hydrogen demonstrates how corporate actors can mobilise resources and technical capacity in ways that policy alone cannot achieve. Its pledge to reach net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2050 (Aramco, 2023), combined with a $1.5 billion sustainability fund and in decarbonisation investments announced in 2023, provides a template for private-public alignment.
At the local level, policy implementation often falters due to limited administrative capacity and uneven understanding of global energy challenges. Aramco’s iktva program, which has contributed over $200 billion to GDP and supported over 100,000 jobs, offers a replicable model for local industrial development that reinforces national energy strategies while building grassroots economic resilience. Moreover, its community investments—such as STEM education initiatives and disaster relief responses—align with SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), demonstrating how companies can fill delivery gaps left by overstretched local governance.
Leadership in this space requires not only technological foresight but also the ability to navigate contested stakeholder interests across levels of governance. Aramco’s dual approach—simultaneously supporting global net-zero goals and regional economic inclusion—illustrates how multilevel governance challenges can be mitigated when corporate and public policy frameworks are strategically aligned.
This paper proposes that global energy companies, through transparent, long-term decarbonisation strategies, can enhance both the credibility and effectiveness of public energy policy. By translating complex climate and energy objectives into actionable pathways with measurable social and economic returns, corporate actors can serve as enablers of just and resilient transitions. Aramco’s case provides a grounded example of such leadership, offering important lessons for emerging and established economies alike.
A comparative analysis of Canada and Norway’s energy policies will be conducted, juxtaposed with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) energy management model. The study does not seek to establish a singular "correct" approach but rather evaluates success based on a government's ability to implement adaptive energy policies that effectively reduce emissions. While carbon taxation has been a dominant policy tool, this research argues that energy efficiency has been historically overlooked as a key driver of sustainable energy transitions.
The fiscal analysis reveals a timing mismatch: transformation investments of $290-440 billion through 2040 must be frontloaded just as oil revenues decline, creating a 25-40% revenue gap by 2040. Labor market modeling suggests a net displacement of 50,000-90,000 workers under stringent pathways, though renewable energy, hydrogen, and circular economy sectors could generate 90,000-190,000 new jobs.
Policy scenario evaluation highlights the “Balanced Transition Portfolio” as the most effective strategy, combining moderate carbon pricing, sectoral protections, and accelerated renewable deployment to reduce economic impacts by 30-45%. Additionally, introducing producer-side carbon pricing could generate $80-100 billion annually by 2030, transforming mitigation from a fiscal liability into a strategic revenue stream that funds diversification.
This study advances the dialogue on energy leadership by reframing climate mitigation not solely as a cost but as a pathway to resilience and competitive advantage. By integrating fiscal reform, sectoral adaptation, and labor market transition into a cohesive policy portfolio, Saudi Arabia, and other resource-dependent economies, can lead in shaping equitable pathways toward an energy future for all.
Keywords: Climate Mitigation Costs, Carbon Pricing, Economic Diversification, Fiscal Policy, Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, Energy Leadership
Walter R. Hufford
Chair
Vice President - Government Affairs and Regulatory Coordination
Repsol
Rufaydah Alyamani
Vice Chair
Sustainability and Climate Change Professional Engineer
Ministry of Energy
Aisha Turebayeva
Vice Chair
Director of Strategy and Portfolio Management
JSC NC - KazMunayGas
Tamer Al-ramahi
Speaker
Industrial Technology Advisor
Canadian National Research Council - IRAP
A comparative analysis of Canada and Norway’s energy policies will be conducted, juxtaposed with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) energy management model. The study does not seek to establish a singular "correct" approach but rather evaluates success based on a government's ability to implement adaptive energy policies that effectively reduce emissions. While carbon taxation has been a dominant policy tool, this research argues that energy efficiency has been historically overlooked as a key driver of sustainable energy transitions.
Hassan Alzain
Speaker
Environmental Management Graduate
Yale University (Nationally Sponsored)
The fiscal analysis reveals a timing mismatch: transformation investments of $290-440 billion through 2040 must be frontloaded just as oil revenues decline, creating a 25-40% revenue gap by 2040. Labor market modeling suggests a net displacement of 50,000-90,000 workers under stringent pathways, though renewable energy, hydrogen, and circular economy sectors could generate 90,000-190,000 new jobs.
Policy scenario evaluation highlights the “Balanced Transition Portfolio” as the most effective strategy, combining moderate carbon pricing, sectoral protections, and accelerated renewable deployment to reduce economic impacts by 30-45%. Additionally, introducing producer-side carbon pricing could generate $80-100 billion annually by 2030, transforming mitigation from a fiscal liability into a strategic revenue stream that funds diversification.
This study advances the dialogue on energy leadership by reframing climate mitigation not solely as a cost but as a pathway to resilience and competitive advantage. By integrating fiscal reform, sectoral adaptation, and labor market transition into a cohesive policy portfolio, Saudi Arabia, and other resource-dependent economies, can lead in shaping equitable pathways toward an energy future for all.
Keywords: Climate Mitigation Costs, Carbon Pricing, Economic Diversification, Fiscal Policy, Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, Energy Leadership
Amirhossein Ghasemi
Speaker
Energy Policy and Geopolitics Researcher
Sharif University of Technology
Co-author/s:
Amir Mohammad Moghani, Ph.D. Student in Energy Governance, University of Tehran.
Abbas Maleki, Professor, Sharif University of Technology.
Nationally, governments are under pressure to meet decarbonisation targets while managing economic competitiveness and energy access. According to the IEA (2023), 45% of necessary emissions reductions to 2030 in net-zero scenarios depend on technologies not yet deployed at scale—many of which require private sector innovation and capital. Aramco’s strategic investment in carbon capture, circular carbon economy technologies, and hydrogen demonstrates how corporate actors can mobilise resources and technical capacity in ways that policy alone cannot achieve. Its pledge to reach net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2050 (Aramco, 2023), combined with a $1.5 billion sustainability fund and in decarbonisation investments announced in 2023, provides a template for private-public alignment.
At the local level, policy implementation often falters due to limited administrative capacity and uneven understanding of global energy challenges. Aramco’s iktva program, which has contributed over $200 billion to GDP and supported over 100,000 jobs, offers a replicable model for local industrial development that reinforces national energy strategies while building grassroots economic resilience. Moreover, its community investments—such as STEM education initiatives and disaster relief responses—align with SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), demonstrating how companies can fill delivery gaps left by overstretched local governance.
Leadership in this space requires not only technological foresight but also the ability to navigate contested stakeholder interests across levels of governance. Aramco’s dual approach—simultaneously supporting global net-zero goals and regional economic inclusion—illustrates how multilevel governance challenges can be mitigated when corporate and public policy frameworks are strategically aligned.
This paper proposes that global energy companies, through transparent, long-term decarbonisation strategies, can enhance both the credibility and effectiveness of public energy policy. By translating complex climate and energy objectives into actionable pathways with measurable social and economic returns, corporate actors can serve as enablers of just and resilient transitions. Aramco’s case provides a grounded example of such leadership, offering important lessons for emerging and established economies alike.
Emissions data was collected using a mobile measurement platform capable of quantifying methane, carbon dioxide, sulfur compounds, VOCs, and assessing flare performance. The system produces high-resolution outputs suitable for regulatory use, including concentration mapping, emission rate estimation, flare combustion efficiency and flare Destruction and Removal Efficiency (DRE). Measurement protocols are aligned with EN 17628:2022 for fugitive emissions detection and follow ISO/IEC 17025:2017 standards for calibration and traceability. The resulting datasets are directly applicable for site-level emissions reporting, operational optimization, and compliance planning.
Case studies from different countries demonstrate how national energy agencies and NOCs used this data to:
Identify high-priority assets for targeted action.
Avoid blanket regulations that would increase compliance costs for low-emitting sites.
Phase policy requirements based on actual site performance.
Reduce unnecessary CAPEX by validating maintenance decisions with measured data.
Conclusion: Integrating multi-component, site-level measurement into policy and operational planning allows governments to set ambitious emissions targets while maintaining energy affordability and supply security. This supports more adaptive, cost-effective, and data-driven climate policy implementation.
Fredrick Sekle
Speaker
Petroleum Economics and Trade Expert
Oilmac Limited : StratFarm Africa Limited
However,, without coherent and forward-looking regulation, natural gas development risks locking the region into long-lived carbon infrastructure, undermining climate commitments, and slowing the growth of sustainable and renewable energy. To address this, the paper proposes a tailored Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) for West Africa, a policy and regulatory structure designed to guide responsible gas development while aligning with net-zero objectives and regional integration goals.
The TNGDF will be anchored on three pillars:
- Sunset Licensing for Gas Projects. Development and usage of natural gas within the transitional period ensuring alignment with renewable energy expansion. This approach ensures that infrastructures and investment in natural gas as a transitional fuel is developed on temporary basis within the timelines of renewable energy development.
- Carbon accountability measures. While natural gas emits 30-50% less carbon than coal and diesel, its transitional lifecycle should be transparently measured and be verified by appropriate authorities. There should be a regulation to make sure that gas infrastructures emit a particular set unit of carbon within the transitional lifecycle.
- Integrated Investment Strategies. Investment in natural gas as a transitional fuel should have a parallel investment into renewable energy sources. For instance, , investment funds for the development of Gas Processing Plants should have a mandatory percentage assigned to develop concurrently a renewable energy facility like solars.
In addition, the framework also emphasizes access and affordability mandates, ensuring that rural and underserved populations benefit from gas expansion. According to the IEA (2022), approximately 490 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to modern energy sources. As such, a deliberate policy intervention will do well to set off this energy disparity.
This paper draws on both professional experience in Ghana’s downstream fuel supply sector, and current academic engagement as a Master of Science candidate in Energy Economics at the Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration. Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) proposes a pragmatic roadmap for West African policymakers to balance the urgent need for net-zero development with the imperative of ensuring an equitable energy future for all.
Pengcheng Zhang
Speaker
Senior Economist
Economics and Technology Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation


