Jinze Li

In the context of low-carbon transformation of the global energy system, controlling emissions from fossil energy is of vital importance. Simultaneously, the complex and volatile international landscape has led to prioritization of energy security in many countries, resulting in reinforcement of fossil fuel development and utilization. Major international oil and gas companies are also pursuing more stable and efficient energy transition plans. Natural gas, characterized by stability and flexibility, is an affordable and low-carbon energy source. It supplements renewable energy with regard to its uncertainty and intermittency, offering a practical solution that could support the large-scale deployment of renewable energy. However, the stable natural gas supply has always been a major concern for stakeholders, and the complex global geopolitical environment and tensions have intensified such concerns. Within the dural constraints of energy security and low-carbon development, the positioning of natural gas in different stages is in dire need to be further clarified, while a consistent medium- and long-term development strategy awaits urgent proposal.

This study focused on China perspective. On the basis of conducting an in-depth examination of the foundation and trend of natural gas development in China, we employed a combination of quantitative and qualitative analytical methods to project natural gas supply and demand outlook of China from 2025 to 2060 under different scenarios, segmented by phase and sector. A medium- and long-term development strategy was also proposed for the natural gas industry of China. 

Results indicated that under various scenarios, natural gas consumption exhibited a late peak and slow decline trend, peaking by 2040 at 575–650 billion m3. Domestic natural gas production remain relatively stable in the long term, peaking at 300–320 billion m3. From a medium-to-long-term perspective, natural gas plays a key role in replacing coal and acting as a compensatory energy source in the industrial sector, thereby contributing to pollution reduction and carbon emission mitigation. For the sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry, efforts are mainly put forth on enhancing natural gas supply capability, as well as promoting deep integration of natural gas and renewable energy.

This study presented a systematic and comprehensive analytical framework, incorporating a China-specific perspective to enhance the relevance and applicability of the findings, offering scientific decision-making support for policymakers, companies and other relevant stakeholders. China’s approach was shared for promoting low-carbon, sustainable and high-quality development of global natural gas industry.

Co-author/s:

Jhong Hang, Engineer, CNPC.